neely crenshaw

The problem is too many people think we are actually close to being good,so they get really pissed when things fall through. That simply isn't the case. looking at it, we aren't as good as at the start of last year.So although sanchez could have been a nice piece and help some this year, we would still be at least a year away from contending...and many more signings. This would have been nice. It was a guy who could have helped make this year a little easier to take but we were still looking up at .500 It does signal that the FO is willing to grab free agents that they feel they need, that will more than likely be around and still contributing when things should be back. With the guys left do you really want a Liriano or Jackson if takes a 4-5 year deal to get them? they may sign elsewhere for less, but going to this team right now could be a deal killer. They could throw pretty well and still get buried, so I don't see either taking a 1 year deal with us, unless there aren't any other offers. It doesn't make sense to sign guys to longer deals, unless we really want them for the future. I don't see anything much left that isn't a fill in. So unless we can get a cheap vet for 1 -2 years, why sign them to be slightly better now? I don't see any game changers left on FA market. We may have to trade some pieces and worse again this year in order to get some help for the next several years.

I understand you're using the war stats but in real life how does this lineup factually state that it is almost 20 wins better than last years? these stats take into account only actual play. there is no upswing for possible improvements. also as you said no play for injuries, etc. Barney, DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano return so basically even (Lahair first half was actually better than Rizzo's 2nd half, so call it a wash for a whole season of Rizzo) Stewart/Valbuena basically return,I know that's hoping for a decent healthy stewart but that's not a given by any means. catcher looks better on O but worse on D potential upgrade for Schierholtz and Sappelt over the Campana,Byrd,Jackson,and Lahair 3rd OF spot OF last year but pitching I see huge drop off. Dempster and Maholm were better than anyone would have hoped and had them until august. A healthy Garza is an upgrade but he made 18 starts, and will probably be traded after about that many this season. I hope Samardzija was great, much better than I thought he would be, he has to match that. I am hoping he is a stud but when looking at war it's what he has actually done no projections for improvement. call it even. wood for a whole season vs the wood-volstad of last year, upgrade for this season but how much does that improvement translate to wins? a couple? so we are banking that Baker and Feldman match or actually improve on Maholm and Dempster. the bullpen main names are the same=Camp,Russell, Marmol, but Fujikawa helps, the rest were there or we are hoping do the job.Also they seem to be spot guys, or long relief that simply won't have much impact vs the guys there last year. I know some of you will bring up that we brought up young guys that were awful. true, very true. 1st, chances are that will happen again this season. 2nd, with everyone intact until aug 1st, we were on pace to win 68 games(.421), so we only lost 7 games off that pace with the awful 2 months. To think that this team, on paper, is 20 wins better for a full season is tough to swallow. I think without any more moves if everything goes our way we could make a run at 75 wins. that means everyone matches, and some exceed norms, we have health, and we don't trade off everyone. More likely lows 70's or high 60's in wins. This almost sounds like a re-run of last year where many posted very optimistic projections only to be disappointed and angry because of unrealistic goals. We could be better record wise than last year but the team being put on the field to start the season is not as good. We just may have fewer major league pieces that will be dealt at the end.

you and me both..lol

Like I said he's not an all star but he's a .280 average, with 800 ops in the minors. Rizzo was .290 and 900 ops....and we expect a lot more from him than jackson. Adding that Rizzo OPS in in the 1000's in the PCL and 800 everywhere else, and jackson's is steady in the 800's all the way through, the comparison is pretty vaild. If we are expecting for Rizzo to be our middle of the order stud, is it crazy to 'hope" that maybe jackson will fix that long swing and be a solid player. Heck we had 1 full time player over 800 ops (soriano) plus rizzo in 87 games. we had 4 total (counting rizzo) over 700ops. As awful as he was hitting.175, he was still at a 650 ops. If he could hit .240 to .250 he could push that 800 ops. As I said it's very difficult to change a swing but it's certainly as possible as any veteran risk that the cubs have taken. It just seems like we have no patience with "our" guys but we pull Cardenas or Stewart off somebody else's scrap heap and they have such upside..but our guy is done after his first 120 at bats in the bigs.

Not a chance. You expand Rizzo to a year, but Lahair had a better first half, so it's break even unless you plan on Rizzo having a monster year, it would be nice but I don't see how we can plan on it. You also had Dempster and Maholm being studs which I don't see being covered by this current staff. The offense is at best equal, with pitching not as good compared to a team that lost 101...and that is not factoring in the trades of major league talent that will no doubt happen as we approach the deadline. I seriously can't see how adding baker, and schierholz makes this a 75 win team. Hopefully there's more coming but it sure looks like potential moves would make a little worse, rather than a little better right now although a solid starter would help. That starter and the bat might get them to 75. we are banking on a lot of unknown to make claims of this type of improvement. Most of our moves have been gambles not sure things. Some may pan out, lots won't. To think that our young starters that were here, and others that were not will magically outperform last year with Dempster and Maholm for most of the year is not likely. It was far more likely that Volstad would be better than the guys from the end of the year. They get there sometime but most have only had moderate success in the minors and a cup of coffee at the bigs. I am not sure how we plan on them out performing last years staff. Even if guys like Russin and Raley are better, they were so bad that better would still be bad. Our homegrown pitchers do not look like they can be much help this year.

Didn't some guy named Rizzo have an awful debut in the bigs and hit at about a .141 clip, with .242 slugging with a K per game, then went back to work and fixed the holes in swing? was that desperation? Jackson has had decent success at every level despite his K's(.282 avg with an above 800 ops. Sometimes it's very difficult to convince a guy who is having success to change his swing. Perhaps now (like rizzo) that he sees the definite need for a change, he will get to it. It's not an easy thing to do, but This system went to work on Rizzo, and he is being counted on as a huge part of our future, is it crazy to hope that jackson can be that solid prospect that will hit .275 and make a run at a solid ops? He isn't going to be mickey mantle but can't he be a younger Dejesus with better slugging?

don't forget that Ortiz was having an MVP type season and then missed a ton of games around the deadline... once they handed middlebrooks the 3rd base job, he got hurt after a great start and don't forget that Lester, buckholtz and beckett all had huge fall offs from their norms and lackey didn't throw a pitch. Lackey has been trending down but that put Matsuzaka in the rotation and I thought he was out of baseball. Bottom line is they had a whole bunch go wrong to finish where they did. They cut some of those troubles but if what returns just bounces back to their average, they are a 90 win team.

this is a very Dejesus like signing. Ok stats, not a earth mover but taking a limited chance that moving away from a hitting graveyard can help pull up stats a bit. Exactly what type of guy are you hoping to sign for 2.2 mil? If he works, and we are awful..he can be sent packing for a prospect. If he doesn't he sits, gets sent down or is cut, not much lost. I still get confused how so many were upbeat about stewart but so down on any other gamble. Right now I think if there was a free agent out there that they really wanted, and thought would still be worth in 3 years they would go for it, but I am not sure if that guy is out there..so why pay for the next best thing to be less bad this year?whether we lose 90 or 100 we still are re-building. I would think they would be more likely to trade for a younger up and coming guy than sign an older expensive vet.

No he did not. Read his memorandum to the league. http://www.steroidsinbaseball.net/commish/vincent.html He mentions steroids and says there is no place for them BUT he bans use of "illegal" drugs. Steroids are not illegal in most places. Steroids with a prescription are 100% legal. Since things like Andro were available at GNC, they certainly did not fall into the illegal drug category. Bonds took high tech supplements not yet banned as "steroids" because of his involvement with conte. so they were not yet illegal nor banned. The game is basically played in the US but if you live elsewhere this things aren't illegal. Heck many like dhea and andro were right out of US stores yet they were later banned as steroids. if you look at the names of players suspended for PED's the names Bonds, Sosa, Clemens and Mcgwire do not appear and no one was suspended before 2005 when congress made baseball toughen the ban with among other things random testing for them. Alos if josh hamilton continues at his pace for a few more years, is he HOF worthy or did his earlier breaking of Federal laws(since he has been PROVEN to have used illegal drugs) keep him out? don't think it makes sense for baseball to start mandating morality when some of the biggest stars of all time had huge "moral" character flaws that are more celebrated than loathed (ruth,cobb,mantle..etc) also i think a bigger question than the scandal would be why with all the problems in our country did congress get involved other than to see themselves on TV? You've made a lot of bad comparisons in this thread. Josh Hamilton wasn't smoking crack to further his baseball career and improve his stats. no but the point was that although they didn't break baseball rules, they broke "federal laws" , which I would guess smoking crack, possessing crack, traveling with crack would fall under. The real point is that baseball did not care that they did this. It was not against the rules of baseball per se, and they didn't cheat. is it wrong, is it bad for them, is it a bad example, is it an advantage, absolutely! but to say they can't be in because they broke rules that didn't exist, or broke laws, or had bad character is silly. it's just never been part of the deliberation.

victorino could be a deal if for 2 years, maybe a 3rd knowing he won't be here then or would not be a main cog...don't see him helping when the team is to be back to competitive As for Jackson, I am hoping that his struggles at the major league level will be the incentive to change his swing. Rizzo had to do something similar after a tragic debut. Jackson despite his K's has always been a good player, and contributer at each level. Sometimes it's hard to convince a guy who is having success that he needs to change or to get him to completely buy in to changing. After last year, I hope he fully understands that something needs to be done. It may take him a year to refine things but hopefully he can. Bottom line is that no matter how much you want to, changing a swing that you have used since being a kid can be almost impossible.

No he did not. Read his memorandum to the league. http://www.steroidsinbaseball.net/commish/vincent.html He mentions steroids and says there is no place for them BUT he bans use of "illegal" drugs. Steroids are not illegal in most places. Steroids with a prescription are 100% legal. Since things like Andro were available at GNC, they certainly did not fall into the illegal drug category. Bonds took high tech supplements not yet banned as "steroids" because of his involvement with conte. so they were not yet illegal nor banned. The game is basically played in the US but if you live elsewhere this things aren't illegal. Heck many like dhea and andro were right out of US stores yet they were later banned as steroids. if you look at the names of players suspended for PED's the names Bonds, Sosa, Clemens and Mcgwire do not appear and no one was suspended before 2005 when congress made baseball toughen the ban with among other things random testing for them. Alos if josh hamilton continues at his pace for a few more years, is he HOF worthy or did his earlier breaking of Federal laws(since he has been PROVEN to have used illegal drugs) keep him out? don't think it makes sense for baseball to start mandating morality when some of the biggest stars of all time had huge "moral" character flaws that are more celebrated than loathed (ruth,cobb,mantle..etc) also i think a bigger question than the scandal would be why with all the problems in our country did congress get involved other than to see themselves on TV?

also you propose that they broke the law but mcgwire was held over the fire because of taking andro...which was seen in his locker and not banned at the time. Andro at that time was readily available at any GNC store and was not illegal anywhere. Although I know that Mcgwire and sosa took much more than just Andro, from what I remember is that because each played "dumb" at there interviews, there isn't any real proof that came out. There could be some that came out later...

They committed multiple federal crimes in order to boost their performance. I'm not saying whether it's right or wrong for idiot baseball writers to judge them for it in determining who gets into their sacred little club, but it's not anywhere close to lifting weights or breaking a small rule of the sport. in sosa's case if he took them at home and did not bring anything into the states, he broke no federal laws. Since he hasn't even been "proven" to have even taken them, don't see how he can be said he broke federal laws. how many have done jail time for this federal law breaking? right, so you are guessing that they broke the law.(which I agree would be a very good guess) But baseball isn't about who may have broken a law. They did not cheat baseball rules. Also since it was not against the rules of baseball, a player could easily get a prescription for steroids from a dr, and that would be 100% legal. As I remember there are some doctors that got into trouble for doing just that. They may have broken federal laws but in that case the players didn't. I would bet that way over half the players where taking them a the high point. Not all steroids have the visual effects that are seen on sosa, clemens and bonds. Many improve strength, while keeping the person lean.Did Palmeiro show the signs of sosa or bonds? other than his performance would you have guessed it?

I share that feeling. It also takes me back to Gary Matthews Jr. remember that Gary had some help from PED's....which may explain his sudden ascension to stardom(or near stardom) Don't know about Pagan but never thought he be more than a 4th outfielder.

Here's the problem. They did not cheat.Doing steroids at that time was not against baseball rules. It was against the law IN THE U.S. but anyone who travels knows that you can walk into a corner drug store in mexico, the bahamas, the dominican and buy any number of steroids just like an aspirin. Did great players of the 60's and 70's take amphetamines to help performance? you bet. If they change the rules 20 years from now and say you can't lift weights an work out year round because the old guys couldn't do that, are all the guys that did that "cheaters"? These guys did something(allegedly :D)that was legal at the time to make themselves better in order to make millions, how is that cheating if it wasn't against the rules?

one bug bat does change a lineup. it changes everyone's role, allows other players to fit into their normal slot(see: trying to make castro a 3 hitter). That being said we get no help by saving that 5 mil in salary on soriano that some are talking about because we have no one to play OF. We will have to sign someone else to play there next year or deal with an even worse offense than last year. So we either pay someone short term to decent money or gamble like we did with DeJesus and Stewart, which obviously could go either way. If we eat his contract, it should be for a prospect or package that we really want, not just to get someone. However, he is one of our only possible trade pieces so we may have to get worse on the field to get better down the road.

no reason to eat his contract at this point unless there is a prospect that we really want. As was said earlier-vet outfielders would not be blocking any of our prospects at this point. just wouldn't make sense to pay him to play for someone else unless we get a guy we know will be part of our near future especially since we would then have to sign another vet to try to replace the player who was most of our offense last year. He may not be worth that front line free agent money but we would probably actually pay more for a LF if we even pay half of his price tag since we have no one ready. It just doesn't make sense to trade him for a low prospect if we are paying much of his salary.

A lot of these scenarios simply don't make sense, unless some of you are trying to say the front office is incompetent. We have to develop talent. We, as fans, had better hope as many of these prospects "turn out" or we are looking at either a couple more years of this type of ball or wholesale spending (which they say is not the route to go). We have very few prospects that are even close. After this crop, we are looking at 2014 or later for most known names to arrive...and that's just to see if they can play. I look for them (FO) to do whatever is in the best interests of Jackson(and all the prospects) as far as development. If that's playing everyday at the major league level, (even if a vet is slightly better) he'll play everyday. If it's to start at AAA to refine a few things,it'll be there. Bottom line we have to trust that we finally have an organization that has a clue and cross our fingers because if a lot of the kids that are close don't become at least become solid major leaguers, it puts us even further behind in building at the major league level.

For the record, hendry coached creighton university for 10 years, was national coach of the year, took them to the college world series and built them into a midwestern power that regularly battled Witchita state for the valley/gateway title and ncaa bid. All at a very expensive Div 1 private school. I don't think he was great as a GM but he has forgotten more baseball than anyone on this board, and anyone who thinks they know more about baseball, and/or doing the job of GM just shows how little they know. Real life isn't fantasy sports, you don't just say I want that guy and add him to your team. There is so much more to the business/relationship side. Just because he wasn't a great GM doesn't mean he doesn't know baseball. Bill Parcells knows a heck of a lot about Football, and is a great coach but has been pretty bad as a GM/President in his career. It certainly doesn't mean he doesn't know football.

this is why you have to build with some of your own players, you simply can not fill out an entire lineup out of free agency. You have to be able to trade young guys for more expensive players that teams are dumping, and then sign a very small portion to fill in where you couldn't. There is just no way to sign 2 outfielders, a 3B, possibly a 1b, a catcher, 3 starters, and fill out your bullpen all out of free agency. Right now as fairly proven commodities we have DeJesus,Soriano, Castro, Shark, Garza, Barney, and Marmol. And with that Castro needs to step up offensively or he can not be a top of the order guy, and barney has to be a back end of the order guy. If you still have Soriano and his money, that is a lot of cash to drop on free agents especially when if you really want to compete next year, you need corner guys(and probably your of) that are also middle of the order offensive guys, and at least 1 of your starters has to be an Ace type. If you signed these types of FA, you could probably deal with your current catcher situation, and someone on staff could probably hold down the 5 spot.

We don't have a true stud at any position currently. We have 2 that we hope will be that soon. You can not compete even if vitters and jackson produce their minor league stats with a team that is below average offensively at almost every position. we have 0 players hitting above .300, we have 1 player over an .800 OPS (barely), we one player with a decent OB%. I don't see Jackson, Vitters or Stewart being above average next year. Lets hope maybe 1 is average... You could make a good jump in win total by signing a couple of top end rotation guys, having shark step in and be a solid 3, and then find the second coming of Maholm, or hope 2 of the other guys can be average 4 and 5 starters. Then make sure the bullpen is solid. With the current defense that could keep them around while the offense is poor. I don't know if it would get you close to the playoffs but perhaps a run at being around .500 right now it's probably best to hope that they guys we think are major leaguers show that to be true. Rizzo has fallen to LaHair type stats and if you did not notice his splits vs lefties are awful (not quite Lahair but sub mendoza). I wonder how long he is considered an everyday guy by everyone. For the record, Colvin is out performing both. At home and on the road, vs righties and lefties, his split stats are better than either totals. I don't bring this up to say we should have kept him, or complain about the trade. I bring it up because many have ripped colvin as awful and a waste of space, yet he is outperforming "our future". I hate to say it but you may have to look at the possibility that Rizzo is not a future star or middle of the order hitter. As for 2013, we have to have castro, rizzo, vitters/stewart, jackson, and a catcher all become significantly better than they are right now and sign pitching to seriously compete. If they aren't you will have sign real major league players at most of those spots- not plug in hopefuls. That's a lot of free agents to sign.

Things get corrected all the time at the major league level. No, they won't happen on it's own, it will take work. Perhaps the failure will make him see he does need to do these things. Rizzo had holes in his swing that were exploited at the major league level. He went back to work and has made changes that seem to be working. It's not forgone conclusion that jackson won't change BUT he has to be willing to put in the work. I can be a very difficult thing to do because you are looking to change a fundamental that he has been using successfully for probably most of his life. If it was easy, every skilled kid would do it.

Let's give the administration some credit. They had to know this would happen. As was stated, if he strikes out a lot in the minors, you'd have to expect it to be as bad or worse in the majors. If the idea is to trade him because they feel he can't play at this level, there would be no reason to bring him up and completely de-value him. They would probably leave him down and try to get what ever they could, or use him as an add in this winter. Perhaps they are using this as a wake up call to him that he has to change somethings to be successful in the majors. Rizzo was truly awful last year, went back to work and fixed some things in his swing. Hopefully Jackson takes this to heart and gets to work. He has been a guy with a 800+ ops and 370ob% in the minors, sometimes it tough to get them to see they need some changes. Failure can do that for you.

First, Maddux could throw in the 90's he just didn't (not at the end, and he did not throw a fastball in the 70's) Also Maddux is not mortal. If any of these guys can learn to throw any pitch exactly where they want it, and on any count, make a "fastball" move 6 inches, and then change speeds on any pitch, at any time, Then yes, they could get by with a fastball in the 80's.

Need will be the basis of any trade involving DeJesus. He has been very solid for us, but he would probably fit into a contenders LF more than CF or RF. If the Yankees hadn't grabbed Ichiro, I could see them looking at Dejesus as a filler in their OF. He has been better than Ichiro but not the name or history. Don't see him as a off season deal because as was stated we grabbed him on the cheap because of injury/down season. There will be plenty of options like that in the offseason to try at no trade cost. However at next years deadline if he has a similar season, someone with an injury that needs a short term fill could go for it. Also as for as trading him, unless someone really feels he's blocking a prospect (which I don't see) there isn't a reason to move him. Al ot depends on movement of LaHair,Soriano, the development of Jackson and/or free agent pickups