Bertz

While I don't think this is a thing, it's at least a much easier slate of defenses. Here are their ranks in DVOA prior to yesterday Ravens - 26 Lions - 29 Cardinals - 2 Packers - 16 Vikings - 8 Seahawks - 23 Giants - 15 Vikings - 8 The Cardinals appear to have (rightfully) taken a pretty big step back since Watt went down. This should be a good group for Fields to test his mettle.

MLBTR projected 5/70 FWIW

I actually think Lorenzen is a pretty savvy option, but probably for another team. We already have enough "is he actually a starter?" SP candidates. Unless we're planning to do something fairly radical with the back end of the rotation (which I don't necessarily mind) I don't think we should be adding anymore unless it's a pre-FA guy with some minor league options remaining. On a completely different track, I've been thinking about this from Brett yesterday: I've generally been ignoring this, wanting to add a Brad Miller or Kyle Seager for 1B/3B and call it a day. But like Brett says, Ian Happ is pretty much the only LH batter of consequence in the org above A Ball. And when you start trying to assemble prospective lineups, you can really feel the lack of a LH thumper. So a LH power hitter probably ought to be moved up quite a bit on the offseason priorities list. Corey Seager at SS would be the obvious ideal, but even Matt Olson or Michael Conforto would really scratch the itch. I also wonder about Joey Gallo. There's been a lot of smoke around him, though I don't know if it's real or if the fan base just hates him and is trying to speak a trade into existence.

Okay, to elaborate here: Over the last 5 years, there have been 533 pitcher seasons of at least 100 IP 187 of those have included guys with an average fastball velo of at least 93.5 MPH (being conservative here, Caleb appears to be averaging 94.something tonight) 78 of those seasons had a walk rate of 7% or less 12 of those seasons had a worse than league average FIP 6 of THOSE had strong xFIP marks (meaning they merely got unlucky dong wise) Like it's really hard to be bad with a good fastball and plus control. Kilian's gotta be one of the safest bets in the minors for league average or better SP production moving forward.

Feel like I like what I see from Kilian. Command is CLEARLY there, and I think he got up to 96 a few times. Doesn't look like much of a spin guy, but altogether looks like a #3 starter :dontknow:

Yeah, assuming we're locked into fairly incremental changes to the arb system, I much prefer the owners proposal to what we have currently. The particulars of this initial offering are obviously unacceptable. But if you work out the dollars (adjusting how relievers are handled as mentioned, and upping those baseline $ figures), I think it's a much better system than we have currently. Procedurally arb currently is just a dumpster fire.

I tend to think being an extreme pull guy is more feature than bug. This year 7 qualified guys pulled the ball more than 50% of the time Jose Ramirez Jose Altuve Jorge Polanco Jorge Soler Marcus Semien Jonathan India Andrew Mccutchen That's five very good hitters and two average ones. In fact, looking at the Top 30 in pull rate this past year, the only bad hitters I see are Eugenio Suarez and Carlos Santana? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=14,d What's even more fun is that Nelly pairs it with a very low groundball rate. That's another one that if you look at a leaderboard it's surprisingly strong. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=6,a It's not without its drawbacks though. While looking at leaderboards from the past few years I saw a lot of Eugenio Suarez and Rougned Odor. Those two guys frankly appear to have broken themselves trying to pull the ball in the air more. But generally it's a pretty strong recipe for success, especially for a guy with plus power.

My ideal is a Plan B/C hybrid, specifically a lower end trade paired with a FA ranked more in the 5-10 range than the 1-5 range. Actually sticking to the parameters of the question though, I think I'm Team B. The Cubs actually have a lot of decent players in house, the problem is that the few who might be more than that are very high variance (Davis, Alzolay, Hendricks). If the cost for adding a star is more limited help for Wisdom/Schwindel/Ortega, I think that's a worthwhile tradeoff. Also, for 2023 and beyond I'd much rather have one ginormous contract and one medium contract than be locked into 4 medium sized contracts on the books.

What’s his realistic ETA to the bigs? Not Hrubes, but I'd think late next year? I think among guys that will open the year in the high minors, this is roughly the expected timeline Early 2022 Brennen Davis Several Relievers Mid 2022 Caleb Kilian Late 2022 Nelly Velazquez Chris Morel Chase Strumpf Anderson Espinoza Brailyn Marquez (if he's a reliever) Early 2023 Jordan Wicks Ryan Jensen Miguel Amaya Beyond that it gets messy, because of all the pitchers that are coming back from injury that we don't know how much they've advanced in the last 24 months.

Pretty sure this game is televised so this is a big deal even beyond just general recognition

I think too, with the number of holes on the roster and the shape of the farm (lots of depth contributing to some impending 40 man crunch) it makes sense to make at least one trade of consequence this winter. That doesn't necessarily need to be an arm on an expiring contract, but for the reasons you laid out that's probably the best option? Like don't blow up the farm for Jose Ramirez, but if you can add e.g. Sean Manaea AND clean up the 40 man a bit I am not going to worry about dealing a few prospects in our 15-30 range (and maybe Mills?). Especially since as you said if you pick the right guy you're getting some of that prospect capital refunded on the back end.

Having him at #7 a month ago is starting to look dumb but not for the reason I worried about

I think it's TBD if theyre a package deal. I could easily see where Pace is back, in which case I'm sure he'll have full authority to make a move at HC, and I'm sure he would. It's just hard to envision any scenario where Nagy is back. Whether they wait it out til the bitter end or not though, is unknown. Yeah I think this is right. Nagy is gone, short of some miraculous turnaround the second half of this year. Pace is certainly not on the most solid footing, but if it looks like he got it right with Fields he probably sticks around.

Expected, but still obviously notable

I'd love to know the Bears average start position off of kickoffs going back to the start of last year. I'm guessing the 17 or 18 yard line? But sure ever 3 games we have one drive that starts at midfield so that's TOTALLY worth it

A number of roster cleanup minor league free agency type moves

I like Andrew Heaney as the "other" SP add. He's not explicitly a velo guy, though 92 for a LHSP is right at average IIRC, but when you add in spin he's a plus stuff guy overall. And then count me in on Gray as well. A rotation of Hendricks Gray Miley Alzolay Heaney Certainly has some downside risk, but has a very real chance to pop like the Giants and Jays rotations did last year. It also, by virtue of aiming for Gray instead of a tier higher for Stroman or Gausman, leaves a bit more money for the offense.

No Gray, Matz, Rodon or Kershaw. My guess is the meds on those last two are a lot worse than we know publicly.

I'm trying, but I can't see how Story is the best option if those are the prices. A career 91 wRC+ away from Coors. His defense props him up, resulting in SS Jason Heyward? 6yr/$150? I would be sad. Every time a guy leaves Coor's people worry about his home/road splits. When's the last time those fears were actually validated?

Either they're fairly aligned on the parameters of an extension or his medicals are real bad.

Yeah I'm eyeing Story at SS as well. He's viewed, and not unfairly, as the #5 guy on the market. At the same, over the last three years he's been worth 12 WAR while none of Correa, Seager, or Baez have cracked 10. Durability is a skill and he's got it despite playing in Coors. If my options are ~$150M for one of Story/Semien/Baez, ~$200M for Seager, or ~$300M for Correa, give me story. Rosario's also a good backup plan at SS. Like you said, he's not particularly exciting, but he's a solid regular and likely available. Cleveland has also shown a willingness to accept quantity in trades. So you might for example be able to make a deal for 3 guys in our 15-30 prospect range rather than any single guy you might really miss. This kind of ties into payroll too. It seems pretty clear there's a lot available, but how much is a lot? If payroll is ~$180M, I think you can fairly easily get all your business done in FA. If it's more like 150-160, you either have to skimp a bit with one or two of your signings, or fill one hole via trade with someone pretty cheap. Trading for Rosario and foregoing the SS sweepstakes would be a good variation of that. To be clear though, there's no reason payroll shouldn't be $180M or more.

https://twitter.com/Zeddary/status/1456834641546076162?t=7o30A4MTLJSfd-kp618iOw&s=19

Like Brett says I kind of wonder if this is it for a little while. They have 4 open spots to stash guys away from the Rule 5, and then can clear spots for FAs/trades as needed. I still see Alcantara, Brothers, Nance, and Rucker as fairly painless cuts.