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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah it feels like he's out this year to prove he's more of a premium athlete than he's gotten credit for. He's been very good at shortstop, even on difficult plays, not just a guy making the routine plays a high percentage of the time. That IMO was the glass half full hope for him as a SS coming into the year. Add that to the increased juice in his bat, and I think if you were doing a stock up/stock down type of analysis on the roster he'd probably still be the #2 guy behind Sieya. Even accounting for his patience being worse in the early going here.
  2. Bertz
    Cole Roederer sighting, that's fun! Hopefully he's not that far off, he really needs to get back on the field.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    Fun starting pitching numbers now. Still tiny samples, though everyone has started at least two games - Each of Kilian, Herz, and Wicks are running groundball rates north of 60% - Each of Kilian, Herz, and Wicks have K-BB%'s of more than 20% (only 33 MLB SPs last year with >50 IP managed that). Herz is north of 30%, which only 7 MLB pitchers period (starter or reliever) with 50+ innings did that last year (deGrom and Burnes the only starters) - Herz and Wicks are getting popups on more than 25% of their flyballs - Combine that with the groundballs, and something like 70-75% of these three's balls in play can't possibly be dongs (and have a very hard time being XBHs). That is extreme contact management Shifting focus to our second tier of guys: - Ryan Jensen and Daniel Palencia are walking too many guys, but also in the 60+% GB rate club, and also striking out a more than a quarter of guys they see - Anderson Espinoza and Riley Thompson are not managing contact well, but both join Herz in the 30+% K-BB% club Mixed results for the latter group, though certainly more good than bad in the very early going here. Unfortunately aside from the reports on velo, the less said about Kohl Franklin and Max Bain the better.
  5. Bertz
    I was wondering why the hell he wasn't starting today or yesterday
  6. Bertz
    Small sample caveats blah blah blah PCA's numbers are really fun right now - Running a .233/.410/.533 overall line - Microscopic 25% groundball rate - 5 steals in 8 games - 7 walks to only 6 strikeouts - Pulling the ball 54.2% of the time (this is a lot, would have been third in the league last year) - Popping up a lot, 20%, about double MLB average Obviously tiny sample, obviously only A ball, but it's a really unique mix of skills. Very few guys pull the ball that much, and very few hit so much in the air. Combine that with patience and legit speed, and if he was doing this in the majors he'd be a unicorn. Looking around, younger Jose Ramirez is the closest comp I can find. Hitting like that as a ++ defensive center fielder? That'd be horsefeathering wild.
  7. Bertz
    Stellar night for the vet part of the pen Ethan Roberts clearly needs to head down on May 1st though. Even his scoreless outings he hasn't quite shown the command he needs.
  8. Bertz
    I feel like we talked a lot last year about how the JD/Boog chemistry wasn't really there. That's no longer the case at all though, they're doing great together now.
  9. Bertz
    Anyone who doesn't like a pitch clock ought to be forced to watch Ethan Roberts appearance on a loop until they change their mind. That was Pedro Baez-esque
  10. Bertz
    Curious what the pitching plan is tonight. Is Leiter just going once through the order? Until there's trouble and then a quick hook?
  11. Bertz
    All but two of the balls in play against Kilian were on the ground. One of those was a pop-up to 1B
  12. Bertz
    Yeah if your team is moonwalking through practices it probably means they weren't hard enough.
  13. Bertz
    Honestly the ballpark alone probably does it That said I won't miss Abbott. The ship has definitely sailed on him being a worthwhile starter, and even if he's a very good reliever I don't think we're hurting for guys who are light on stuff and heavy on funk.
  14. Bertz
    I thought someone said he was having visa issues, but I may be mistaken on that. I don't know if we've gotten confirmation, but for anyone mysteriously missing who's on a 40 man that's the safest assumption. I'm curious at what point we enter Kilian watch. We're certainly not there yet, he's not even fully stretched out. Plus there's all of the machinations that are going to hit in ~2 weeks when the injured guys are back in the fold and rosters contract. That said, once we hit mid May if he's still shoving there's pretty much no reason not to bring him up? Is it 100% dependent on how Steele is doing at that point?
  15. Bertz
    My guess is until rosters contract he takes a role like Rucker and Chavez of taking bulk low leverage innings. If he starts to show something that quickly he sticks on the roster, if he doesn't like you said they phantom IL him. I'm curious about the odds of this paying off big. On the one hand Newcomb is your classically ideal change of scenery type, and his repertoire seems tailor made for Hottovy to fix. But on the other, the Braves are one of the smart orgs with pitching, so you would think they've exhausted all options.
  16. Bertz
    I absolutely LOVE this
  17. Bertz
    I’ve been reading a lot more lately on MiLB, and not seeing much positive about him as a prospect. Is there a possibility he’s a thing? He's the one that went bonkers in the Arizona Fall League. He's probably not a guy. But there's some chance. He probably won't ever have the contact or consistency to be a star, but I think a Hunter Renfroe type outcome seems very reasonable. Streaky lefty-masher who mashes everyone in his best year.
  18. Bertz
    Funny how the oldest prospect in the MB lineup was the first one to start hitting. Almost like that means something?
  19. Bertz
    Annnnndd now a dong .269/.424/.615 Early season data is fun
  20. Bertz
    Velo down a bit, hard contact up a bit. That said he's fine. It's not bad luck or anything, this is legit hard contact, but he's missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. His xFIP is 3.32, and for a vet like him we know he's not a guy who's gonna underperform in that way in the long run.
  21. Bertz
    If the back of my napkin is correct, PCA is up to .240/.406/.480 after that last HBP
  22. Bertz
    Hopefully this gets rained out now, sheesh
  23. Bertz

    Jed Speak

    Bertz replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    The crazy amount of groundballs is definitely a red flag, but I think a less deep shade of red than an equivalent plate discipline or contact deficiency. It can and often is a canary in the coal mine that something is wrong. Like I remember Starlin's last year here he ran a 60+% GB rate for a month or so, BABIP'd his way to solid production, and then cratered the rest of the way. But at the same time, I believe it's been empirically shown that GB rate is more on the pitchers than the hitters. I don't know if the Cubs' slate of opposing pitchers has been exceptionally GB heavy, but it's easily possible in only 11 games.
  24. Bertz
    Yeah I assumed that this was something they could do in 2020 with no fans but that it was a one-off. I wonder if the schedule being tighter this year because of a lockout necessitated bringing this back.
  25. Bertz
    Brennen with a walk before I've even finished my first coffee of the morning is fun
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