Bertz

I'm getting on a bit of a reverse jinx hot streak

Steele has been dong-lucky this year, so I'm fine with the dongs but don't love that he hasn't yet struck anyone out the 2nd time through the order here

I'm increasingly wondering if an Ian Happ trade or non-trade will be the canary in the coal mine for what to expect this winter. If Jed's planning to build a "aim for 82 wins and hope for the best" type squad next year, there's not really much reason to hold onto a premium left fielder. Especially with how much of the funnest parts of the farm are outfielders who will potentially start being on the MLB radar late next year. But if the plan is to actually start to try next year, it's hard to see dumpimg a guy who projects north of 3 WAR, no matter how low on the defensive spectrum he lies. Even if you think he's replaceable, you're at least doubling his salary to do so, and while the books are fairly clean they're not *that* clean. Also of the good players on the roster, he's probably the safest. Like while each of Hoerner, Happ, and Seiya project between 3-3.5 WAR, Hoerner's injuries and Seiya's lack of MLB track record give them considerably more downside risk. It's not definitive, again scarcity at 1B and LF aren't quite the same as other positions. There may also be Happ-specific things the org doesn't love, like they don't buy his slashed K-rate, but I think this will be the biggest data point for what to expect over the winter. Even moreso than how MLB-adjacent the returns for Willson and Robertson are.

I'll be a bit of a wet blanket here and say I'm still not to Steele levels of optimism with Thompson yet. Even in his better run as a starter he's still getting tagged for XBH with high frequency(last 7 GS: 31 IP, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR), and he weirdly hasn't been able to solve right handed hitters(.376 wOBA v. RHH during those 7 starts, .296 v. LHH). Maybe the slider he's starting to flash will help here, but I'd want to see him make progress there through the All-Star break/trade deadline before I start considering him more than a backup rotation option in my mind. I'm not too worried about the quality of contact. As a SP he's given up a hard hit rate of 37.9%, a smidge under the MLB average of 38.4%, and a barrel rate of 8.7%, a bit higher than the MLB average of 7.8%. That's only one extra barrel and one fewer hard hit ball though so I don't think either is all that meaningful. But he's holding his velo deep into games, and the times through the order penalty isn't biting him especially hard, which are by far the top two things I look at in this sort of situation. "Is he good" is obviously a very open question, as even during his hot run to open the year his peripherals were more good than great. But for me I think he's shown enough SP traits that it comes down to the common "would you rather have the meh starter or pretty good reliever" question. And fingers crossed but what he's done these last two starts with the new slider looks more middle than back of the rotation.

It's going to be such a shame if he can't stay a SP. The combination of not only velocity but ability to hold it deep into starts is so incredibly rare It does feel good that the Cubs have enough huge velo SP prospects that while odds are against each individually in aggregate they're actually pretty good for us netting one as a legit MLB starter

Okay yeah Keegan might be turning into a thing

I'm feeling increasingly confident about the viability of Thompson and Steele as viable MLB starters. Steele feels pretty locked in as a back end/swingman type, but Thompson seems to still have a shot at being a guy you want in your rotation, not just a guy you're okay with having in your rotation.

I'm a big fan of this new Daniel Palencia who doesn't walk people

I think Perlaza is my top "gut feel" guy in the system. The scouting reports don't like him much, and aside from walks there's not any statistical stuff about him that really wows you. And as a mediocre defensive corner outfielder, you generally need some black ink on your stat page. But his swings are very aesthetically pleasing (especially lefty), and the combination of offensive skills (pretty good power, average contact, plus patience, low groundball rate) is the sort of thing that tends to sneak up on you with how productive it is. I also like that he's a switch hitter who is actually fairly comparable from both sides of the plate. I think if the juiced ball was still around I'd be banging this drum a lot more, while now it's going to remain more measured. But I'd like to see him get a shot at some point.

You're welcome everyone

James Triantos is 4 for his last 39, one hell of a cold streak right now

Cruz to MB -> Devers or Gallardo to SB -> Herz or Wicks to Tenn? BTW do we have a recent scouting report on Cruz? I know he had kind of popped right before getting hurt but I'm fuzzy on the details

It's probably just rookie hitters but I'm curious how much of Kilian's atrocious command is the MLB balls. I know some guys have really complained about them, and Kilian's not just nibbling he's been missing wildly these last two starts.

For a guy who got famous among baseball fans for being a sabr guy, he's shockingly number illiterate. He's had some takes during COVID that show he doesn't super get math.

Feels like you can't have both him and Heyward on the roster. If I'm supposed to buy Heyward being around for defense and consistency, that disqualifies Villar out of hand

3rd in xFIP too so not just dong luck

It was probably just him airing it out because the initial plan wasn't for him to stay in and finish the game, but Adrian Sampson's stuff was WAY up yesterday. Velo up more than a full MPH, and spin rates up about 100 rpm.

Made is up to .269/.374/.415. He's also about to hit 100 games at MB, which seems to be the number the FO tries to hit for younger guys before they get promoted. My guess is he's at SB in the next two weeks.

For anyone who's not familiar with this, Travis Sawchik has written about it a lot Cleveland and NYY have really driven the bus on this

Still not entirely sure how to interpret Roederer's quick bump to Tenn, but after getting on base 4x today his numbers are pretty solid

I made a post last week in the transactions forum, but yeah it looks like it's gonna be an issue: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=4291&p=499439#p498977 The team has enough roster spots that we don't have to worry about protecting the most important guys, but they'll probably have to leave a few guys on the level of a Brendon Little unprotected, which is not ideal. I hope Jed takes some steps this deadline to get ahead of this, rather than being forced into trade(s) at the end of November just to clear up roster room.

As bad as he is, I'd much rather have him than KB or Javy right now. Broadly though this is exactly why I was okay letting everyone walk. The 2016 warm and fuzzies only last so long when guys aren't producing. The cardinal sin of the last five years wasn't not committing to the core enough, it wasn't not starting the process of breaking them up much sooner Or supplementing the core and preparing for potential departures. It’s both fair and unfair to use the example of the Dodgers because they spent way more money than everyone else but the Cubs could theoretically spend in their range but choose not to. But they lost Corey Seager in the offseason but had Trea Turner ready to slide over. Bellinger has been hot garbage the last couple years but they traded for Mookie. They were ok with Grandal leaving because they had Will Smith ready to break out. Hardly anyone noticed that key guys from the early part of their run like Seager, Grandal, Puig, Ethier, Gonzalez, Joc, etc are gone because they didn’t let the team atrophy around them and then trade them all right before they went to FA, they continued to build around them. Helps that their developing system is light years away from the Cubs too. What if it was the Cubs that traded for Machado and then resigned him? Or Harper? Or simply developed a few above average players. We’d be sad guys like KB were gone but there would not be the level of anger and now apathy that Cubs fans feel now. Oh for sure. I think a lot about the rumored KB to the Braves stuff in the '19-'20 offseason. I believe Kyle Wright and Austin Riley were suggested together, because Pache and Waters were too much (kind of hilarious in hindsight). But like even if not that specifically the team should have done something years earlier than they did. I get after '18 blaming it on the death march schedule, but after '19 it was clear as day change was needed and Theo chose to just run out the string.

At the game. It was a jam shot he dove and caught it. He wasn’t hurt. Pitcher was warming up long before it happened. Good to know!

As bad as he is, I'd much rather have him than KB or Javy right now. Broadly though this is exactly why I was okay letting everyone walk. The 2016 warm and fuzzies only last so long when guys aren't producing. The cardinal sin of the last five years wasn't not committing to the core enough, it wasn't not starting the process of breaking them up much sooner