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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara Status: Alive!
  2. Bertz
    I don't think it's just that, they're also underperforming pretty severely on just pulled balls (.376 actual. 413 expected).
  3. Bertz
    I'm not sure what to make of this, but the Cubs are 20th in wOBA against 95+, and yet 7th in xwOBA.
  4. Bertz
    The Cubs are 8th in the league in called strike 3s and 10th on a rate basis. Teams ahead of them. There are very good offensive teams high on the list (Minnesota) and very bad teams low on the list (Miami has the fewest by a decent margin). This is one of those things like not getting the runner in from 3rd that is just not nearly as uncommon and "only my team" as you think.
  5. Bertz
    I think the best guess for the next three games is Opener + Spencer Bivens Opener + Spencer Howard Opener + Mason Black Between injuries and trying to line Webb up for the Dodgers series the Giants rotation is a huge mess.
  6. Bertz
    Get that man to Iowa. Chase Strumpf is starting everyday for crying out loud it's not like there's not room for him.
  7. Bertz
    Hopefully Pagan is alright. I feel like the outfielder always takes the worst of it because they're *just* looking at the ball and don't protect themselves as well. Hopefully just the wind knocked out of him and an abundance of caution.
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
    Yeah I think 3 things are going on with Roberts: 1. The velo is legitimately down a tick or two. As TT points out he wouldn't be the first guy this year holding back some velo while at Iowa. 2. He's kind of a nightmare for the pitch classification systems. Much like Justin Steele he's got a fastball that's on the border between a 4 seamer and a true cutter. I also wouldn't be surprised if some of his harder sliders in the upper 80's are getting called cutters and pulling down his average "cutter" velo. 3. This is tough to disentangle from #2, but it looks like he's getting more movement on his pitches. '24 minors vs. '22 majors. It looks like - His cutter has the same horizontal movement but another couple inches of drop - His sweeper traded about two inches of drop for two more inches of horizontal movement - His curve did the opposite, trading 4-5 inches of horizontal movement for 4-5 more of vertical Those latter two probably don't have anything to do with his velo, but getting more distinction on his breaking balls is probably a good chunk of his current success. .
  10. Bertz
    Yeah the Giants are in a real bad way right now Literally only two healthy starters until next weekend, and Webb is going today. The only guy at AAA pitching well would require some 40 man messiness. Also Yaz is on the IL. Winning 3/4 feels a lot more likely than under normal circumstances. If the Cubs win 5 or 6 of the next 8 heading into the next off day that would start to make up for some of their recent swoon.
  11. Bertz
    Followed by a dominant save from Hunter Bigge I imagine it's not an accident Bigge's getting all the save opps right now, he's probably next man up once there's a natural opportunity to open a 40 man spot.
  12. Bertz
    I assume at this point theyre just holding out to the draft when they need to clear spots at MB to promote him? But he's ready to be promoted.
  13. Bertz
    Jameson Taillon so far in June: 24 IP, 4 BB, 24 K, 3 HR, 3.00 ERA, 3.79 xFIP I do not expect the team to end up selling, but if they end up doing so and Jameson can stay on this heater for another month it shouldn't be hard to dump his contract.
  14. Bertz
    I was just looking ahead to the Giants series and the pitching matchups are really forgiving. No Webb, and Blake Snell and Robbie Ray are still rehabbing (both pitch at AAA tomorrow so for sure out through the Cubs series). It's basically Jordan Hicks and three bullpen/opener type games like Wednesday. You should never expect 3/4 on a West Coast series against a solid team, but it feels much more reasonable than it would under most circumstances. About time the scheduling gods throw us a bone this season.
  15. Bertz
    What the hell did Colten Brewer do on the IL to come back out of the gate throwing so much harder?
  16. Bertz
    The Dodgers didn't give out a long term mega FA deal between Greinke in 2012 and Freddie Freeman in 2021. Even if you want to count the Betts sign and trade as being close enough (totally fair IMO) we're still talking 7 years of Friedman steadfastly refusing to play in these waters, and now they basically won't stop. The "Team X won't do Transaction Y" thing is usually very context dependent and only true til it's not.
  17. Bertz
    Oh hey look flyballs to CF can be dongs and they're not just xwOBA killers
  18. Bertz
    Very baseball that they had a 5 run inning in these conditions and no dongs were involved.
  19. Bertz
    It snuck up on me the season Birdsell is having given he started so slowly. A 3.79 ERA isn't amazing in this year's Southern League but it's solid and he's trending up. Probably an MLB depth option by this time next year?
  20. Bertz
    That's not true from what we know publicly. It was very widely reported that the Giants and Blue Jays were at $700M and as soon as the Dodgers matched the deal got finalized and there was no additional soliciting of counters. As for the Jed of it all, I suspect he would do a Corey Seager or Rafael Devers type deal, $300-400M for a 25 year old, but I have no expectation he will ever be the guy to break records on e.g. Soto because of his aversion to deal length.
  21. Bertz
    Not totally sure this goes here but it's not worth its own topic. If you want a frontline SP in the short-medium term a Luzardo trade is one of the most viable avenues, now looks likely to be an offseason deal instead of a TDL that looked inevitable 3-4 months ago.
  22. Bertz
    That 2.8% HR/FB rate for Megill is screaming for regression so hopefully the weather today accelerates it.
  23. Bertz
    I just got around to Kiley's mock from earlier this week. I did not know anything about Waldschmidt prior to that but he actually sounds really fun. I wonder of you could get him at 14 and push some money to day 2.
  24. Bertz
    I wouldn't hate Busch or PCA getting a start today. Q is pretty split neutral and obviously not a flamethrower so he's a good lefty to give a young guy a shot against.
  25. Bertz
    Dansby Swanson monthly wOBA and xwOBA It's mostly just batted ball luck. He had a rough stretch in early May leading into his trip to the IL but there's less progression here and more just getting what he's due. Morel and Amaya have some of this coming their way too. The groundball rate is too high, I think that's the one thing that's actually been problematic. Interestingly it was also really high last April when he was crushing it. I wondered at the time if it might be a somewhat intentional choice due to the April weather. This has lingered into the summer though so it's clearly not on purpose this year.
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