Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Wow ZiPS HATES the Fried contract. I assumed something Nola-adjacent was warranted but the computer says no
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They also suddenly look like a great Nico Hoerner fit
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They do want Dominguez to be their CF. But Bellinger would be great for them as Dominguez insurance and a starting caliber 1B. I also won't write it off considering what they clearly had earmarked for Soto, but do they really want to give Bregman $200M right after paying Fried?
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Not sure Fried going to NYY does anything for us. Yankees trajectory seems/seemed to be two of Bellinger/Bregman/Fried, so we don't know if this impacts Bellinger unless we get some definition around Bregman.
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Via Sahadev. I don't believe this was included in any of the recaps from Hoyer's media session last night, but today suddenly feels pretty important. So Suzuki doesn't want to be a full time DH, and Hoyer doesn't want to have a full time DH. Feels like that means either: - There is not going to be an everyday addition to the lineup - Two current hitters are on the way out. For example Bellinger + Suzuki with Tucker coming in. Or what feels more realistic something like I mentioned last night of Bellinger + Hoerner out and Brandon Lowe in
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Yeah I mentioned in a comment on your Tucker column this AM but the Athletic mentioning yesterday that Suzuki could be moved if Bellinger wasn't was a real "wait what?!" moment for me. Brushing off Joel Sherman as not knowing anything about anything west of Jersey is easy, but Sharma saying something has more weight. I wouldn't take this as a good thing per se, but I do think it's less bad, probably much less, than most of the alternative explanations for what Sharma reported. Speaking of those alternative explanations, does this soften what we think the restrictions are on payroll? The genesis of the "they're cutting payroll!" panic was the deluge of Bellinger rumors. Payroll being cut was mostly shot down, but we collectively settled on "but they absolutely will not cross the LT." With the Bellinger stuff having a very non-financial explanation, I wonder if there's another $5-10M more in the couch cushions than we expected. Like this year they go into the season at the LT line and if they end up over so be it.
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From the sounds of it there's not enough acrimony for it to be a "choose him or me!" deal, but in a gentlemanly sense it is more or less a " choose him or me" deal. Bellinger's always probably been the guy to go, but if you're Jed you're not doing tour job if you don't see what Suzuki could net. And if him and Wolfe have a healthy relationship, there's no harm in passing along e.g. "The Tigers and Astros horsefeathering LOVE you if you want to wave your NTC and have me go down that route." Right now, the winter meetings, with a Bellinger trade seeming fairly imminent, is the exact right time to have that convo.
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Yeah I think both have to go, which certainly colors how likely a Tucker trade feels for me. That said I think Houston taking one back isn't unreasonable, especially if we saved them money elsewhere (e.g. Ryan Pressly), so I don't think it requires some Preller-esque spree of moves to make everything work together.
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If Jed moves Bellinger to get Suzuki back in RF I don't think this is a negative, if anything it's the opposite. This does have to color how we daydream future lineups though. For example no way in hell Owen Caissie or Kevin Alcantara are pushing Seiya to DH, no matter what the math says.
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Yeah this is my interpretation too. This conversation was likely had during end of season exit interviews. When Bellinger opted in that made it clear someone needed to go in trade. The conversations happening right now are most likely about specific scenarios and destinations.
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The Astros have explicitly talked about how much of a priority it is to re-sign Bregman. That may be platitudes, and there will certainly be limits to where/how they're willing to make it work, but "we want Bregman back" and "Tucker is theoretically available" are both matter of public record.
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Ah, so that's why Suzuki's name came up in rumors. Honestly, fair. And it is a limitation, but a minor enough one that I think the clarity it provides is ultimately a good thing. We know Bellinger doesn't have to be backfilled by a RF, he can be backfilled by a 1B/DH. That provides a straightforward path to improving the offense and saving money that doesn't require a lot of roster gymnastics. Bellinger out, JDM in, $15M thrown at the pitching staff. Easy peasy.
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Alright let's try and game this out - Cubs send Cody Bellinger to the Yankees for Trent Grisham - Astros send Tucker and Pressly to the Cubs for Grisham, their choice of Caissie/Alcantara, and any two of Wicks/Assad/Wesneski/Birdsell. They take the ~$25M savings and immediately use it to re-sign Bregman - Cubs send Nico Hoerner to the Mariners for Luis Castillo, Gregory Santos, and whatever prospect freight is required to balance out the deal. I'd actually prefer higher talent further from the majors a la the Darvish trade - Cubs spend their last $10-15M on the bench, which has to include Carson Kelly. Let's call it Kelly, Josh Rojas and Manny Margot Lineup: Happ/Swanson/Suzuki Tucker/Paredes/Busch Amaya/Shaw/PCA Bench: Kelly, Rojas, Margot, TBD who wins a spot in ST Rotation: Steele, Castillo, Shota, Taillon, Boyd Bullpen: Pressly/Hodge/Santos Pearson/Merryweather/Miller/Morgan Whoever of Wicks/Assad/Wesneski is left That bench sucks until multiple kids force their way up, but otherwise this team can ball. That pitching staff especially has a chance to be smothering.
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Oh yeah, I have used him extensively there in The Show. Him and Schwarber as a catcher platoon is pretty goated
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I want you to know this got a legitimate laugh out loud from me.
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- kyle tucker
- cody bellinger
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I doubt they'd acquire him before trading Bellinger, but reasonably a Cubs fit, Trueblood actually wrote him up a few weeks ago.
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Yeah Tucker feels exceedingly unlikely. I just don't think those kinds of resources are going to be put towards the offense currently. A few things that do give me some pause - There's a seeming insistence on clearing out RF. We all know about the Bellinger rumors, and you can easily argue those make sense without a big replacement coming in. What makes far less sense is the Athletic reporting that they would have looked at moving Suzuki if a Bellinger deal wasn't feasible. Dealing Suzuki, or honestly even considering it, really only makes sense if you're trying to slash payroll or there's someone you're trying to make room for - A couple of Jed's comments last night can be interpreted as pointing to bringing in a big bat.
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Cubs Showing Interest In Additional Late Inning Relievers
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
So you're saying to properly evaluate relievers sometimes you have to dig deeper than topline results? What if, maybe, they dug even deeper? Past Ks and BBs all the way to underlying pitch characteristics. -
Cubs Showing Interest In Additional Late Inning Relievers
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Hector Neris had a 1.71 ERA and was the #2 RP for a team that was one game away from the world series. -
Thinking about this more. Wonder if we see something like this: - Hoerner AND Bellinger out. Bellinger being gone is practically canon at this point, and the Mariners Hoerner smoke is pretty damn thick - Bunch of pitching comes back for Hoerner and Belli, some directly some via saved $$$ - Trade for Brandon Lowe - Sign FAs to build a fairly stellar bench, something like Carson Kelly (check), JDM, and Randall Grichuk Plan A becomes Shaw replacing Hoerner directly, with Lowe replacing Bellinger offensively (Seiya slides back out to RF to replace him defensively). If Shaw's not up to the task from day 1, Lowe starts at 2B and DH becomes a rotational/rest position until one of the kids is ready.
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Curious if this refers primarily to guys going out or also to potentially those coming in.
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I don't think it says anything about the magnitude of the moves, moreso the timing, but the way these guys are talking is night and day from last year's meetings
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Cubs Showing Interest In Additional Late Inning Relievers
Bertz replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm generally pretty cool with the relievers we're hearing about, but I'm really hoping if this is the depth we're working in that we add two of them. I feel like that's the appropriate way to mitigate the risk/reward proposition. Each one is probably quite good, but has a sizeable "but." For Chafin and Yates it's age, for Minter it's his injury rehab, for Finnegan it's that he requires some pitch-lab work. -
The Cubs continue to cast a wide net on late inning relievers. Hardly a surprise after how many issues the team's bullpen had in 2024. Two separate names were mentioned Monday afternoon from the winter meetings In between injuries, AJ Minter has been one of the best lefty handed relievers in the league the last 5 years, sporting a 2.85 ERA over 243 innings. A hip injury which required surgery ended Minter's season in August. Kyle Finnegan was the Nationals' closer for much of the year, though he was non tendered last month as his arbitration salary exceeded what the Nationals were comfortable paying him. Both names are in line with Kirby Yates and Andrew Chafin, who the team was tied to last week by Bruce Levine. Not exactly playing against type, Jed Hoyer seems to be zeroing in on relievers who have late inning stuff and experience but aren't quite in line for multi-year deals. View full rumor
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The Cubs continue to cast a wide net on late inning relievers. Hardly a surprise after how many issues the team's bullpen had in 2024. Two separate names were mentioned Monday afternoon from the winter meetings In between injuries, AJ Minter has been one of the best lefty handed relievers in the league the last 5 years, sporting a 2.85 ERA over 243 innings. A hip injury which required surgery ended Minter's season in August. Kyle Finnegan was the Nationals' closer for much of the year, though he was non tendered last month as his arbitration salary exceeded what the Nationals were comfortable paying him. Both names are in line with Kirby Yates and Andrew Chafin, who the team was tied to last week by Bruce Levine. Not exactly playing against type, Jed Hoyer seems to be zeroing in on relievers who have late inning stuff and experience but aren't quite in line for multi-year deals.
