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Lefty

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Everything posted by Lefty

  1. Lefty
    You can't look at RA or ERA. Miller gave up 8 baserunners in 3 innings. I don't care if he only gave up a run. His performance was "Prioresque."
  2. Lefty
    HBP, BB, E6, HR/2out = 4R/1ER Did they change the rules of scoring? When I was a kid, all these runs would have been unearned because without the error the inning would have been over. I'm not saying it makes sense, but that's the way it was.
  3. Lefty
    Is Miller still in? That must be some ugly line given the DP and CSs.
  4. Lefty
    I think we have a winner!
  5. Lefty
    That's probably why the stadium radar gun has been turned off.
  6. Lefty
    Paying a high salary does not necessarily mean the player is "bigger salaried." You can't justify paying Marquis 3/21 because he is now making $7 million a year. Would the Neifi Perez contract have been better had he paid more? By the way, there was no competition on that one either. But kudos to JH for getting out of that one in year 1.
  7. Lefty
    And for a Cub fan, that's usually it.
  8. Lefty
    [quote name="davearm A guy with that level of production gets paid something like $12M/yr (or more) on the open market. Say you think Miller's got a 25% chance of meeting that ceiling. You should be willing to pay him $3M (12x0.25). The Cubs are paying half that. That's smart business. That is not quite accurate. First of all the 25% number is a guess. We have absolutely no idea. If it is 12.5% the Cubs are getting no bargain. But this logic could be used to justify paying any Major League pitcher who had success as recently as 2003 (Jose Lima' date=' Jason Marquis). But there is another problem. Like in Deal or No Deal the variability of outcomes is tremendous. There is no need to pay anything approaching how your formula values Miller because the chance that he goes 4-7 with a 5.80 ERA is quite high. And that is worth almost nothing to the Cubs who could get that from Mateo or Guzman for the league minimum.
  9. Lefty
    Oh come on. He's got nothing left to prove in simulated games.
  10. Lefty
    But the description of Prior's stuff at thecubreporter.com wasn't a Muskat story. A Muskat story would create more skepticism than excitement. Which would not help ticket sales.
  11. Lefty
    Maybe Marquis is the righty in the #3 spot?
  12. Lefty
    But the description of Prior's stuff at thecubreporter.com wasn't a Muskat story.
  13. Lefty
    ` And what was the average salary for 2b's when you exclude the guys making league minimum, like Josh Barfield, Richie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Robinson Cano, Jorge Cantu, Chase Utley, Jose Lopez, Brandon Phillips, Jose Castillo and Aaron Hill. You have to admit that this is a pretty extensive list of minimum payroll talent. 1/3 of the major league teams worth. Chase Utley makes a heck of a lot more than the minimum. Anyways, that just goes to show you how easy it's been for teams to find cheap 2B talent. No need to pay big for such modest production. Which makes the time Neifi spent at second base even more incomprehensible.
  14. Lefty
    Still making less than DeRosa.
  15. Lefty
    Every study, including one in the WSJ last week, show that lineup protection is a myth. Our challenge at #2 is interesting. With Soriano's power, his percentage of time on first base is very low. Jones and Murton are extreme groundball hitters which is normally a problem with DPs at #2. But Jones' strikeouts would make DPs even less likely. So as long as he doesn't face LHPs, Jones at #2 sounds OK. And sandwiched between Soriano and Lee might protect him from LHPs later in a game. Do you realize you just wrote that lineup protection was a myth and then said Soriano and Lee might protect Jones from LHP's? :D I don't have a sense of humor, so if you were serious, let me clarify. Late in the game an opposing manager might not bring in a lefty to face Jones if it means bringing in an inferior righty to face Lee and Ramirez. Therefore, Jones is protected from facing a lefty. The protection that is a myth is that a batter will see different pitches and will produce different results depending on who bats behind him.
  16. Lefty
    Every study, including one in the WSJ last week, show that lineup protection is a myth. Our challenge at #2 is interesting. With Soriano's power, his percentage of time on first base is very low. Jones and Murton are extreme groundball hitters which is normally a problem with DPs at #2. But Jones' strikeouts would make DPs even less likely. So as long as he doesn't face LHPs, Jones at #2 sounds OK. And sandwiched between Soriano and Lee might protect him from LHPs later in a game.
  17. Lefty
    Just because Miller is throwing doesn't mean anything. He couldn't break 90 last year and during his successful years he was at 93-94. I can throw all day. But my 67 mph heater isn't going to cut it.
  18. Lefty
    AGREED! I would not want it by the lake though. Summer is summer, but in April and May I could use a few extra degrees. I always thought a ballpark off I-90 right before the O'Hare turnoff. Then you are right on the Jefferson Park-O'Hare Train, near the tollway as well. And you would actually have room for parking. Make it happen Trib! Baseball stadiums should not be built near highways. We don't need to replicate crap places like Philly, Miami and Shea with nothing around the stadium. Any new stadium has to be located within walking distance of multiple postgame options. If you build it, they will come.
  19. Lefty
    AGREED! I would not want it by the lake though. Summer is summer, but in April and May I could use a few extra degrees. I always thought a ballpark off I-90 right before the O'Hare turnoff. Then you are right on the Jefferson Park-O'Hare Train, near the tollway as well. And you would actually have room for parking. Make it happen Trib!
  20. Lefty
    Pardon if this has all been said before, but the reason Z is being so bellicose is because the Cubs have one card left to play and that is their arbitration case. Unless you think Z will win in arbitration, a Zito contract plus the halfway between Z's figure and the Cubs', is 8/139 (17.375) or 8/137 (17.125) if the Cubs win. Z's insistence on $18 million is his way of getting the Cubs to give up the one card they have left. This is the advantage of having players before free agency eligibilty. The Cubs would be crazy to give it to him now. If he pitches well this year, we could give him 6/(111-115) (18.5-19.167) and be ahead.
  21. Lefty
    The game is about adjustment. He had a great change up in 2004 while striking out like 3 guys per nine innings. Batters adjusted and he didn't have the fastball to fall back on.
  22. Lefty
    Did we ever figure out what "Moment Man Hendry" was willing to give up for this guy two years ago?
  23. Lefty
    Hill is older than Prior. He has survived the danger years.
  24. Lefty
    I actually spoke to a Giants coach a few weeks ago who told me this was coming. I feel so cool right now, but bad for Matheny.
  25. Lefty
    I am concerned that this guy didn't have a great K ratio in college. On the bright side, the fact that he hasn't pitched that much is a good thing. There is a limit to how many pitches a young arm can throw. Did you know that in 50+ years of the Little League World Series only one pitcher has made it to MLB? Wilson Alvarez. And the Notre Dame guy's athleticism is a positive as far as overall fitness and adaptability. He probably has a greater chance of failure than your typical late first round pick, but there's a greater chance that he is John Smoltz. Is that a good trade-off? It's an opinion.
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