Regular Show

Decided to check his twitter account: Huh, I've never heard that one before... that seems apocryphal for sure. Yeah, I love Asa Lacy but I would easily take Austin Martin over him. Pitching prospects will break your heart and even the best ones get hurt and/or bust (Mark Appel). I prefer the Cubs' philosophy of taking advanced bats at the top of the draft.

I hate Dayton Moore, but I really like Rany Jazayerli so I'm happy for the Royals.

Nothing new in here. I'm glad this draft class has drawn industrywide praise, according to Kiley. We definitely targeted high-upside types this year and that normally draws praise from the industry when you do that. I like this draft class too. Shame it was only 5 rounds...

I'm not familiar with Sam Thoreson, but he seems promising and maybe the Pitch Lab helps him.

Thanks for sharing that article. Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age... The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023. The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair... The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place. I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens. It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

Hahaha, yeah I was pretty sure it was moving to January. Doesn't affect anything and all teams have informed their J2 signees about this. Kinda annoying, but we all know baseball owners are trying to save cash wherever they can... EDIT: I shouldn't say it "doesn't affect anything"... That's true from a contract perspective (I believe), but this delayed signing hurts the players and their families. A lot of them come from poor backgrounds and this opportunity is huge for them. They also have to repay, or give a cut of their bonuses to their trainers and agents. This time is very stressful and full of anxiety because some teams occasionally renege on these agreements... I'm sure having to wait a few more months to sign is very stressful for these players. That definitely sucks.

Good stuff in here: [tweet] [/tweet][tweet] [/tweet][tweet] [/tweet]

More Matt Mervis: [tweet] [/tweet][tweet] [/tweet]

I kinda want a bunch of prospects to do this to stick it to MLB and the owners...

I said that I doubt Howard reaches the level of Addison Russell or Javy Baez on defense, but I think he can be above-average at SS. Not elite, but very good and I believe that's how most scouts feel as well. Same thing for me. I like the swing, but I wonder how much power he develops as he grows and gets stronger? 10-15 HRs is still great for a SS who plays good/great defense; if he gets stronger and starts hitting for power and gets to 25-30 HRs then he becomes one of the best shortstops in the game. Very exciting to have a prospect like this in the system again.

Theo has talked about this for years and it's a huge principle for our young hitting prospects, and I know for a fact that he's been disappointed with our young core on this key aspect. We give away to many ABs and have poor approaches, but I also think umps do our young hitters no favors... This is why I think an automated strike zone is so important. With an ABS system, a team of disciplined hitters can fully realize this philosophy of "controlling the strike zone" and force pitchers to throw strikes over the plate. Kyle Schwarber will be the greatest beneficiary of an automated strike zone on our team. KB and Rizzo would benefit from this too. I get this philosophy, but I think it can only truly happen once you have a proper automated strike zone in place, IMO.

Someone did have us in on Nico, but I don’t recall ever seeing Jensen’s name connected to the Cubs predraft. I don't remember seeing any mock drafts that had us selecting Nico in 2018? That came as a complete shock to me and I was angry initially. Like I'm sure Red Sox fans felt the same way this year lol.

Yeah, I'm pretty angry at having a 5 round draft this year and I think it screws over a bunch of talented kids. Just stupid and short-sighted for MLB to do this... I think 20-25 rounds is acceptable, but the main thing is not limiting teams to horsefeathering $20K. It was $125K last year for players after round 10/UDFAs and it should keep increasing every CBA to keep up with inflation. The next CBA discussions are going to be super contentious and the draft will be impacted.

I was talking to someone yesterday and joking around about how bad all the mock drafts were in regards to the Cubs. Like, in 2018 I'm almost certain there wasn't a single mock draft that had the Cubs taking Nico Hoerner. And then last year, I don't think anyone had us taking Ryan Jensen... I could be wrong, but I don't recall seeing any mock drafts that had us taking Ed Howard? He was in the mix, but never the pick for the Cubs in these mock drafts. It almost seems more informative to see who the Cubs aren't taking in these mock drafts and just go on that lol.

I really like this kid and think he's projectable and adds more velo in time. I think the pitch lab will really help him. You know I really wanted Carter Baumler as our late round HS arm, but Baltimore took him and he's getting paid a nice overslot bonus... So Koen Moreno is a nice consolation pick.

We know Eric Longenhagen has Ed Howard and Cristian Hernandez pretty close from a question he answered. He's going to update the lists in the coming weeks and I think he slightly modifies the grades of some prospects. How I think Eric will change the Cubs list: 1. Nico Hoerner - 50 FV 2. Brennen Davis - 50 3. Miguel Amaya - 50 4. Brailyn Márquez - 50 5. Ed Howard - 45+ 6. Cristian Hernández - 45+ 7. Adbert Alzolay - 45+ 8. Cole Roederer - 45 9. Chase Strumpf - 40+ 10. Ryan Jensen - 40+ 11. Burl Carraway - 40+ 12. Kohl Franklin - 40+ 13. Cory Abbott - 40+ 14. Christopher Morel - 40+ My version is similar to yours, but I think Cristian Hernandez gets bumped up to 45+ FV and is higher ranked than Adbert Alzolay. Some scouts and people inside baseball are down on Alzolay and think he's a reliever... I think Eric will place Chase Strumpf and Ryan Jensen ahead of Burl Carraway on that 40+ FV tier. Nice boost to the system and I think Burl Carraway pitches right away this season assuming we have baseball. I don't think he'll exhaust his rookie eligibility, but it'd be kinda funny if he sticks all year and disqualifies for this list next time lol.

I really don't think comping Ed Howard to Addison Russell works conceptually and think people are just doing it because they are/were highly-rated Cubs SS prospects and because they're Black... Addison had these big, broad shoulders and quick explosive hands and scouts expected lots of power. I think Ed Howard has a better approach and should hit for a better average, but less power (should get stronger though). Addison was really good on defense and I don't think Ed Howard reaches that level. I think that's a lazy comp. And I get you guys wanting to do comps, but the point of the exercise is to compare prospects to a modern-day player to help inform other people. You guys are comping people to Angel Guzman and Andy Sisco and Orlando Cabrera and others? I don't even remember the tool grades and body types for these players. The further back you go the harder it is for younger people to understand the comp.

Lol

Cal or anybody, fangraphs references the Cubs strength program having helped Brennan Davis, Benny Rodriquez, and Cole Roederer. Who is Benny Rodriquez? lol - I had the exact same thought when I read that. Benjamin Rodriguez http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=675851 I'm assuming Eric is referring to this guy in our system. Just accidentally replaced the 'g' with a 'q' I think. I don't know of a "Benny Rodriquez"...

https://mobile.twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1271473857459826688 Yeah, most of the talented juniors will end up going back to school. I expect us to sign a few talented seniors. RHP John McMillon is a talented arm and throws really hard. Also probably ends up being a reliever.

I've been thinking about a comp for Ed Howard... I know scouts don't like to do cross race comps, but I would comp Ed Howard to Trevor Story. I think that kind of works? Maybe less power at his peak. Similar builds and tools. I believe his upside is similar to Trevor Story, but I'll try to see if there is a better comp for him.

I really like what I've seen so far. He's a 3-sport athlete apparently.