17 Seconds
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Everything posted by 17 Seconds
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Re: NHL Playoffs 2008-09 (Start Wednesday)
17 Seconds replied to NewUserName's topic in Other Sports
wait, is cyno really an emt? what an unfortunate turn of events -
No team with Alfonso Soriano can win a World Series.
17 Seconds replied to badnews's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Did Soriano cause Rivera to blow the save in game 7 in 2001? -
How can you possibly keep throwing his career OPS number like it's supposed to predict exactly what he's going to do this year? You're including his first three season in the league (ages 22-24). It's like say that Sammy Sosa averaged a HR every 32 at bats in 1991 (age 22 season) and because of that it's obvious that he used steroids. Players get better and not everybody comes into the league and rakes right away. From 2003-08 Milton had an OPS of .879. And right on cue, here we go with the skewed Bradley stats to make it look like he's been a badass hitter over the 5 years. Saying he's been an .879 OPS hitter from 03-08 is dumb. No, more like he's been a 1.000 OPS hitter for the last 600 at-bats (most of which came in Texas, big surprise) and has been his typical .820ish OPS guy the previous 3 years 04- .786 05- .835 05- .818 so uhh, yeah... he's been an .879 OPS guy for the past 5 years. Except for those 3 straight year where he, uh, wasn't The reason I talk about his career OPS is because he's performed to that level for most of his playing career. You know how many seasons he's had with an OPS over .835? THREE And that's being really generous, considering the total PA's of those 3 seasons really add up to about 2 full seasons worth of at-bats. I don't understand why this guy continues to get some kind of free pass, like he has an awesome track record of hitting or something, and he's sure to turn it around. Guess what guys? For the vast majority of his career, he hasn't been a great hitter. Again, can you please tell me why his first three seasons in the league matter to you so much? Young players struggle when they first come up. There are more players who struggle when they come up than there are guys like Ryan Braun who come up and rake. Not to mention that you're completely ignoring that he played his games in LA, Oakland and San Diego for four years. You keep beating the whole Arlington thing into the ground yet you ignore the other side of that. 2004: .823 2005: .861 2006: .890 2007: .964 2008: .872 Milton Bradley's road OPS' over the past five years. I don't think many people expected Bradley to come in and OPS 1.000 again this year. There's the Arlington factor plus his high BABIP from last year. But I don't think many people would have predicted he would have a .728 OPS either. Umm no, I haven't ignored the fact that he's played in pitcher's parks most of his career. I've touched on it several times. If you'd read over the thread, you'd see that I thought Bradley would probably be goodoffensively, based on his recent road numbers that you showed. But like I said, I never thought it was a sure thing like most people seemed to think. All offseason it was "if this dude stays healthy he's going to be SICk". People were worried about his health and his brain, but nobody questioned if he'd for sure be good. I just didn't understand why people thought he'd for sure be a badass hitter. Look at those numbers you showed. In 04 and 05 he was the same mediocre bat I'm talking about. Not a bad hitter (I've never said Bradley is a bad hitter), but the same mediocre mid .800's OPS guy. He was good in 06 and 08 and great in 07, but that was only for 98 at-bats. Now please listen to what I'm about to say. I said going into the season that I expected an like a .290/.380/.500 type line. HOWEVER, I thought it was far from a sure thing. Why? Because he's shown that he can be badass one year and then mediocre the next year. In 03 he was badass. How did he follow it up? By 2 straight years of these "bleh" numbers I'm talking about. The point is we guaranteed 30 mil to a guy who MIGHT give youan .890 OPS for MAYBE 115 games. If yopu're paying that much for not even a full season, he should be more of a sure thing. Bradley showed in 04, 05, and now 09, that he is not a sure thing. People are all "I don't understand it? Why isn't he badass?". Umm, because for most of his career, he hasn't been badass, that's why. .835 OPS Bradley is showing up yet again for another season in his career, but people are shocked.... even though he's done it multiple times.... even after having what looked like a breakout season. I'm sure people were shocked that he was mediocre for the 2 years following his awesome 03. Now people are shocked again that he's following up his awesome 2008 with a subpar. I'm sure later on he'll have a monster season followed by another one where he doesn't get hot, and the same people will be saying "I don't get it. How could we have possibly seen this coming?" Cliffs- -I thought Bradley would be good -I was still worried that he wouldn't be -People are shocked that he's having a mediocre season, even though he's shown multiple times in his career that he has seasons like this between good seasons People just need to realize the difference between a proven hitter and a hitter who can be good at times. There are countless players in MLB history who oculd be awesome at times but never really put it together for an entire career. Bradley is obviously one of those guys. People just don;'t want to admit it for some reason, even though he's doing it AGAIN. I'm calling it right now. Bradley will finish 09 with an .835 OPS, then have a .915 OPS in 2010, then he'll start off slow again in 2011 and these same people will be baffled and not understand how it could possibly happen. So one last time- People shouldn't have expected Bradley to suck, but they shouldn't be flabbergasted that it's happening either. His bat was a risk all along.
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Matt Holiday?
17 Seconds replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
You must be joking. Acting like Coors stats are an accurate measurement of a players worth is dumb, yeah. Home/Road splits for Holliday's career 04 home- .338/.406/.603 (1.009) (10 HR) 04 away- .240/.287/.367 (.654) (4 HR) 05 home- .357/.409/.593 (1.002) (12 HR) 05 away- .256/.313/.416 (.729) (7 HR) 06 home- .373/.440/.692 (1.132) (22 HR) 06 away- .280/.333/.485 (.819) (12 HR) 07 home- .376/.435/.722 (1.157) (25 HR) 07 away- .301/.374/.485 (.860) (11 HR) 08 home- .332/.413/.584 (.997) (15 HR) 08 away- .308/.405/.486 (.892) (10 HR) Career home- .352/.420/.634 (1.054) (88 HR) Career away- .282/.351/.457 (.808) (44 HR) Uhh, yeah. SLIGHTY SUSPICIOUS In a neutral park, which half of those numbers is he more likely to come close to? I think it's pretty obvious, assuming you know what numbers are. The good news is that his road numbers have gotten progressively better each year. I think he can probably ne like a .900 OPS guy in a neutral park right now. Is he a really good hitter? Probably. You can take into account the fact that many hitters hit better at home too. The point is, when there are GIGANTIC splits EVERY single year of his career, it is extremely obvious that his numbers are greatly influenced by that park. I think this is common sense. I didn't think people still fell for Coors numbers, even after the humidor. Like I said, I'm not acting like Holliday isn't a very good hitter or that he's not a big middle of the order bat. He probably is. But is he the .980-1.000ish OPS guy that he's been over the last 3 years? Doubtful, unless you want to pretend like Coors didn't help his numbers at all. The problem is, he's going to be THE big bat on the market. Teams are going to be competing for him, and the team that gets him is probably going to pay like he's a 1.000 OPS guy, when really he's probably like a .900 OPS guy. So before you respond with something that implies that I'm saying Holliday isn't good or that Coors is the only reason he's good, please read my entire post. Never have I said Holliday isn't a good hitter. I just think it would be stupid to not realize he's not as good as he's been the past few years. All I'm saying is that Coors made him look like Manny Ramirez, when really he's probably more like Jason Bay (pre-2009 Jason Bay, that is). -
Matt Holiday?
17 Seconds replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
well it's common knowledge that internet hecklers with unique avatars get tons of ass -
*posts slash stats from 10 years ago* yeah, because those are the stats i always show from bradley. 2004-2006 is 10 years ago, right? *posts bradley's arlington numbers and 2003 numbers that make him look a lot better than he is*
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Matt Holiday?
17 Seconds replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
yeah, i'm so silly for paying attention to road numbers when talking about a guy who played his home games at coors. i bring up road numbers because those are the only neutral numbers we have to look at for him. i don't know why that's hard for you to understand. holliday has never ops'd .900 without the help of coors, and he's only come close to it once. i guess he was just unlucky on the road for several years in a row, huh? and wrigley is only a hitters park when the wind is blowing out, which is only like half the time. comparing it to coors is dumb. not surprising you'd bring that up. if you aren't smart enough to realize that hitters who play in parks like coors field and arlignton have inflated numbers and refuse to look at obvious splits, then you're not really worth talking to. p.s. your sig doesnt make him look dumb. it makes you look dumb for wasting your time in fantasy leagues with morons. congrats. Are Holliday's numbers inflated due to Coors? Of course. Does that mean that his away numbers are his true talent level? Of course not. But that's all we have to go on. Looking at Coors numbers is pointless Im not saying Holliday isn't a good hitter. He is. I'm saying that his numbers are inflated by Coors. It's pretty obvious that they are -
Matt Holiday?
17 Seconds replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
yeah, i'm so silly for paying attention to road numbers when talking about a guy who played his home games at coors. i bring up road numbers because those are the only neutral numbers we have to look at for him. i don't know why that's hard for you to understand. holliday has never ops'd .900 without the help of coors, and he's only come close to it once. i guess he was just unlucky on the road for several years in a row, huh? and wrigley is only a hitters park when the wind is blowing out, which is only like half the time. comparing it to coors is dumb. not surprising you'd bring that up. if you aren't smart enough to realize that hitters who play in parks like coors field and arlignton have inflated numbers and refuse to look at obvious splits, then you're not really worth talking to. p.s. your sig doesnt make him look dumb. it makes you look dumb for wasting your time in fantasy leagues with morons. congrats. -
Kouzmanoff is better than the type of guys I'm talking about. Then please, say who you're talking about. Who should they get to fill this one month void until Ramirez is back? I'm not a GM. I have no idea who is available. I'm talking simly aout a backup 3B. Something that we should have had in the organization before the season started in the first place. Koskie would have been fine. If Freel can somehow get hot and give us like .285/.350/.360, even that would be fine. I'm simpl talking about a guy who can play the piosition and not be a complete black hole in the lineup like Blanco is
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Jake Fox could get start for Chicago Cubs in right field
17 Seconds replied to cubswin2009's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Who? Carroll or Fox? Fox. He has a bit of a reputation of being a jerk and some people think he's uncoachable because of it. Actually I have been to spring training the last 8 years and I have to say outside of Juan Pierre, he is by far the most friendly and humble person and first one to sign autographs every single day Others that seemed like very nice people are Dempster, Wood, Jacque Jones, Marshall, Dusty Baker Biggest pr*ck ive seen since ive been going is matt murton Haha I always knew Matt Murton was a douche Who else? I like hearing what players are a-holes -
Jake Fox could get start for Chicago Cubs in right field
17 Seconds replied to cubswin2009's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What did he say? -
Wait, there's no trade to be made right now? None of us are talking about getting some great third baseman. We're talking about somebody who can actually play third base for a major league team. Don't act like that's so hard to find. As for me saying I wouldn't give up prospects for a win move... I never said that. I said I wouldn't do it for a rental player like Holliday Who's going to trade with you, and who's the target that's good enough to be worth parting with worthwhile prospects for? I don't really want to part with Casey Coleman or Tony Thomas because our underachieving offense hasn't started to pick up for the loss of Ramirez(who's probably back actually playing third base for a major league team after the all-star break), especially when they are very likely to begin doing so over the next few weeks. My apologies for misattributing you, although a bullpen arm would in all likelihood be a rental(and again, cost a heavy premium). Like I said, I'm not even talking about getting a good player. I'm talking about getting somebody who can actually play third base and OPS above .700 so Fontenot can move back to second. It really shouldn't be hard to find a backup third baseman.
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Wait, there's no trade to be made right now? None of us are talking about getting some great third baseman. We're talking about somebody who can actually play third base for a major league team. Don't act like that's so hard to find. I mean, Ramirez has been out for weeks now and we're still going with Fontenot at 3rd and Scales.Blanco at second. That's ridiculous. Fontenot should be at second and we should have somebody who is actually a 3B at third. As for me saying I wouldn't give up prospects for a win move... I never said that. I said I wouldn't do it for a rental player like Holliday
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Lous a freaking idiot Part 2 2009 season
17 Seconds replied to Keener98's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Leaving Fox in was the right move. Rhodes was ready in the pen if they brought in Fuku or Hoffpauir. I like Fox vs a righty much better than Fuku or Hoff against a lefty that has been dominant this season. Regardless of Lou not allowing Fuku to start vs leftys this year, hes hit them well this year. He has 6 at-bats vs lefties this season -
Lous a freaking idiot Part 2 2009 season
17 Seconds replied to Keener98's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Leaving Fox in was the right move. Rhodes was ready in the pen if they brought in Fuku or Hoffpauir. I like Fox vs a righty much better than Fuku or Hoff against a lefty that has been dominant this season. -
What metric would you prefer? UZR has him as an above average defender and from what I've seen in his career, that's probably pretty accurate. I was concerned before the season that his defensive skills would have dropped off after not playing the field last year. I haven't seen all that many terrible plays so far this year. like i said, i don' put any stock into any defensive metrics. and i don't doubt that he's been a good defender in the past, but that's the past. now he reminds me of cliff floyd hobbling around there. just because you don't see him make any terrible plays doesn't mean he doesn't suck. he doesn't get to any balls out there. edit: as for defensive metrics..... they just aren't reliable at all imo. they jump around every year like crazy. anyways, i just don't see how you could possibly put defense into a statistic and have it be accurate on any sort of regular basis. there are just way too many factors and variables. it's just not logical.
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i cant believe people still actually put any stock whatsoever into UZR and defensive metrics in general. i never said bradley is as bad as dunn anyways. just that he's bad.
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Uhh, Jim? Are you going to do something? Fontenot cost us 3 runs in the inning and then cost us the 4th run in extras. How can we have a gigantic payroll and be in "all out win mode" and not have a 3B because of one single injury? Absolutely inexcusable. Now we're forced to play the awful Fontenot as third and watch us cost us runs and also have to deal with garbage like Miles/Scales/Freel in the lineup. To not have gotten a third baseman by now is a joke. Almost anything is better than what we have. Thanks for the depth Jim.

