squally1313

Don't do that. I actually let myself get excited.

Back to Soriano for a quick second, if you look at his fangraphs page, all he has to do is meet his rest of the season ZiPS projections for the rest of the year (275/334/513/847) to finish with a line of 283/342/540/882, which would be his highest OPS since his first year with the Cubs (897). Is it likely? Probably not, seeing as we all know that every hot streak comes with a cold streak for Sori, and we haven't seen the extended cold streak quite yet. It's not entirely out of the question though, depending on how much you believe in projection systems like ZiPS. That would give him a final wOBA of .381. If you use that .381 number and try and find a comparable outfielder from last year, you end up finding guys like Jayson Werth (.382), Raul Ibanez (.379), and Torii Hunter (.379). Now, I completely understand and acknowledge the flaws that comes with fangraph's player worth system, seeing as it's based on the free agent market only, but those four players last year were worth, respectively, $21.8 million (5 UZR/150), $17.3 million (4.9 UZR/150), and $17.2 million (-2 UZR/150). If you take these numbers into account, and factor in that Sori will probably end up hurting the Cubs defensively more than those guys (with the possible exception of Ibanez, who is by all accounts brutal), he could end up being "worth" about $15 million in terms of wins brought to the team. Obviously, the math behind the value system leaves a lot to be desired, but it's the best we have at this point, and it shows Sori could end up "earning" a high percentage of his salary this year. Let's just hope we'll be able to say the same for Lee and Ramirez by the end of the year....

No Homer...you throw that pitch with two strikes. Just be a little more patient...

Would they jump KU still? With the way this game is going, I'd almost give the number one spot to Kentucky. Kentucky's loss was a lot worse than this one was.

And in other news, Kansas down 15 with under 12 left. Could we be looking at a Hummel-less Purdue as the new number 1?

You have a strange interpretation of great. At Bama is a tough place to win, especially the way they did. I know RPI means nothing right now, but #1 RPI and #3 SOS is pretty dang significant. Anyone who doesn't think they'll contend for the Big 12 is dilusional. Kansas and Texas are the #1 and 2 teams in the country. Expecting to contend with them unless you're a top 10 team is foolish. When you're not Kansas or Texas, and don't have the "hype" of a Texas or a Kansas, you don't start the year #1 and #2 in the country. You start the year just outside the top 25-30 and have to work your way in. Just wait and see. It's December for christ's sake. Where you are ranked right now holds no weight on what you're going to be doing come conference time. This KSU team has yet to even come close to peaking yet. On top of the guards, Kelly and Judge will be a presence to deal with come conference time. Add in Sutton and Samuels, and this team has a LOT of weapons. You'll see.

Fangraphs looks awesome right now. Don't know how to post it on here though....

Would anyone who knows more about this than I do be able to shed some light on the Cubs plans for Cashner in the near future? Are they completely set on trying to make him a starter, or could he see some time in the Cubs bullpen sometime soon, a la Shark last year, mainly because I know college relievers have gotten to the majors very quickly in the past. I'm very impressed by his numbers so far, and his arm is obviously getting stronger, but I'd be interested to see if the Cubs would send him back to a bullpen role for a few months if they thought he could help them get to the playoffs.

I know this is now yesterday's thread and whatnot, but just had a couple more thoughts... While I don't agree with jersey on the theory that people are worried about losing their jobs and wanted to "show improvement," I very much agree with him on the injury thing. O_O, you're almost making it seem like he has to catch up to the other draftees of that year because of his missed time, which I don't think should be the case at all. Vitters had just over 300 PAs in A ball, Moustakas had 549, Heyward had 508, Dominguez had 381. Even compared to Dominguez, who is in an organization that tends to rush people, Vitters still had 80 less plate appearances. Why not keep him there for another month, at least, until he starts hitting like he did in May. Regarding his splits over the three months in A ball, put me down as someone who's not all that impressed by his April numbers. Yes, his peripherals are mostly the same as they are in June, but they aren't very good. His BABIP in April was .353; there's only 24 players in MLB right now with a BABIP that high, and every single one of them has a LD% higher than Vitters does. Not to mention that Vitters put up that BABIP against much worse defense. While I agree that a .257 BABIP in June was unlucky, I think there's a pretty decent chance it could be closer to the truth than the other two months. Besides all that, a .751 OPS for April with almost zero plate discipline doesn't strike me as a good month. Yes, May was unbelievable....but I think we should have given him time to show he could repeat or sustain a high level of success. You made the point earlier about how we only have limited information to work with when looking at minor leaguers, and that the organization must have seen progress that they thought warranted the promotion. While that's entirely true (I've never watched a Peoria game), that's all we have to work on, and a huge part of this site is questioning the moves of the organization, from Hendry and Lou all the way down to the base coaches and minor league instructors. And their success rate in cases like this is pretty awful. So yes, I fully agree they believe Vitters is ready for high A ball. I just don't agree with them.

Thanks for all of that...like I said, I know how much time you spend on this kind of stuff. Didn't mean for the original post to appear as though I was ready to condemn his career after 31 at bats. To me, by far my biggest worry is that tiny number in the walks column. No matter what kind of average he hits for at whatever level he's at, it needs to improve. As someone who knows very little about minor league development, it would seem to me that the best way for him to do that was against pitching he knew he could hit. He goes around A ball again, starts seeing the same pitchers, and he can develop an eye for the strike zone, knowing that even if he gets to two strikes, his hitting skill is still superior enough to bail him out. I worry that he's at high A ball right now expanding his strike zone and swinging at a lot of first pitches, looking for fast balls. His stroke projects to be very above average. But his discipline needs work. On your fourth point, I guess that's another reason for my frustration. Obviously the front office is a pretty frequent target around here...obviously this is a lot different than questioning Lou's lineups or pitching choices, since there's not a lot of statistics to determine how to properly raise a top prospect, but their track record for guys as talented as this isn't good. I could be wrong, but it seems like they've had a history of rushing people. I was too young to remember what kind of prospect Corey Patterson was, so this comparison could be way off base, but I'm seeing some similarities, at least in their numbers, that I don't like. Unlike Mous/Dominguez/Heyward(to an extent), we don't need Vitters' bat at Wrigley anytime soon. I don't know...obviously we need to see more of him at high A to determine how he's doing...but just worried about the handling more than anything else.

You're right. 31 ABs tell us all we need to know about Vitters. He clearly is horrible. You're right. Clearly I used the word "horrible" in my last post. Defense aside, the post wasn't even about Vitters and his skill set. The kid's obviously got a lot of talent, but he's only 19 years old. I think everyone can agree that it's going to be awhile before we determine how he's going to end up. Really, it was just a frustrated post on a topic already covered when he was first promoted: Basically, why? Vitters was, outside of his last 4 games in A ball, going through what was most likely his first prolonged slump of his entire life. He puts it together for a couple games, and Hendry/whoever decides that he needs to face tougher pitching? At 19? I just don't get the rationale. He goes 0-18 from June 8-June 12, then puts together a respectable (nothing special, since he's not walking at all yet) .315 (18/57) average over the next 13 games and apparently he's mastered A ball. I admit I haven't been following prospects for as long as most of you guys have, but I find it very hard to see him having any future success if he's walking 7 times in 288 plate appearances in A ball. And if he didn't get it there, I'm not sure how it's going to develop faster in A+, with better pitchers and more pressure to succeed. I would have let him stay in A ball, where he knew he could hit the pitching, and try to gain a little discipline before pushing him up. Again, I don't see why there should be any sort of hurry with what is likely (and hopefully) one of the few top 5 picks we're going to have in our organization. That's all I was trying to say.

219/290/509 Glad to see we're not potentially rushing our top hitting prospect or anything...Also, when does his defense begin to become a serious concern? 5 errors in 8 games? Too late now, but we should have just let him destroy A ball and prove he's done all he could there, rather than taking one month of amazing production surrounded by two average/subpar months and saying he was good. Again, there is absolutely no hurry.

The two together might be a bit too redundant, unless they wanted to platoon them. It'd also take away most of the power on our bench. I'd only trade one of the two - preferably Fox. Yeah, while I love Fox's bat so far, his lack of defensive ability really hurts him and brings down his value a lot. I mean, if they stay in a strick platoon in center and at second, you have to assume that Fukudome/Fontenot are getting about 70% of the starts, which means you have 2 righties on the bench already in Baker and Reed that put up over 900 OPS against lefties last year. With Lee getting hot, Hoff becomes the fifth outfielder, which is fine because he gives us that good (well, hopefully good) lefty bat off the bench to use against top righty relievers. Right now we have basically three righties on the bench who either have a career of hitting lefties really well or recent sucess against hitting lefties. Unfortunately for Fox, who may very well be the best hitter out of the three, he doesn't bring anything defensively, so I think we should be looking at getting some sort of reliever for him. I guess one main thing that could raise his value is if he shows he can hit right handers consistently. After Hoff, who's our next option against righties? Right now it's Fox, but really we're not losing much in a guy whose value can be replaced against lefties by two other guys and who's the second option against lefties. Get a reliever for him, and find another lefty bat (Snyder, though basically another career minor leaguer, is killing AAA....oh and that Jim Edmonds guy is still available) to fill out what could turn into a decent bench: Baker Reed Hoff Snyder/Edmonds Hill Blanco Use Fox to upgrade the bullpen, and as someone mentioned earlier, have someone remind Lou that Marshall/Shark/Hart(if he's up) are all capable of going 3-5 innings, and an 11 man pitching staff is fully doable for us.

According to wikipedia's Rule 5 article, a Rule 5 pick only has to be active for 90 days during the season. Patton's already hit that number since Opening Day, so I think we got to find someway to hide him on the DL for the next couple months, until the rosters expand. That's one spot. Sending Fuld down really only leaves us with one guy who can play center, but Kosuke hasn't had any injury problems yet, so we can risk it. Sori played there last year for a little bit, and Bradley wouldn't be a complete disaster. I never really understood bringing Shark up, but long term we need to see if he can contribute to the organization as a starter, so stretch him back out in AAA in case one of our starters goes down, which with Harden is always a decent possibility. One move I would love to see happen is to DL Soriano. Regardless of lineup spot, the guys not giving us anything. Both hits today were bloop singles that barely dropped in, and he couldn't even hit a sac fly with a runner on third, and it was one of his most productive days of the last two months. Get him off his feet for a couple weeks, let him (hopefully) destroy AAA pitching on a 'rehab' stint to get his confidence up, and hopefully he's still got a couple hot streaks in him the rest of the season.

Bradley Fukudome Lee Ramirez Sori Soto Fontenot Theriot

...Fresh meat?

See, it's funny because you can put Fuld's name in there instead of Fukudome's and the first part would be just as true. Fuld put up a 627 OPS last year in AAA. 627.

Please define what the hell your definition of "spark" is that includes taking out our top OBP guy for a career minor leaguer, and not even a good one at that. Also, to answer, No. We need to start hitting better. Soto's, Bradley's, Fukudome's, and Soriano's at bats have absolutely nothing to do with what some other guy does at the plate.

Not his fault. Well actually, his 758 OPS in AAA didn't exactly scream "Call me up!", so yeah, it was kinda his fault. Notice how Fox (and Blanco, and Scales) put up good numbers and got called up a lot earlier. Also, in Scales' first 6 games he had a 1307 OPS. Guess we should have just given him the third base spot "for good" and let Fox rot down in AAA right? No, we should just let the overpaid, mediocrity continue to roam the outfield. :good: Please explain to me how overpaid mediocrity is worse than cheap mediocrity? Again, they get paid the same playing or riding the bench. Also, since this thread is about Fukudome, we can talk about how his "mediocre" MAJOR LEAGUE numbers this year are much better than Sam "should be the leadoff hitter for good" Fuld's AAA numbers.

Not his fault. Well actually, his 758 OPS in AAA didn't exactly scream "Call me up!", so yeah, it was kinda his fault. Notice how Fox (and Blanco, and Scales) put up good numbers and got called up a lot earlier. Also, in Scales' first 6 games he had a 1307 OPS. Guess we should have just given him the third base spot "for good" and let Fox rot down in AAA right?

Find out what Ryan O'Malley is doing and trade Fukudome for him to clear up room for Fuld, am I right?

Besides the fact that Marmol's control problems make 2008 Hill look like Maddux in comparison Edit: Maybe it was about even. Also, forgot about the waivers thing. Also, Marmol does have more of a track record. Bottom line: I'm an idiot. Just as a high school pitcher who literally only pitched because I could throw strikes consistently, control problems really bother me.

Lee has got to be it at this point. I highly doubt he makes it with all the first basemen putting up better numbers so far. Just makes it too hard to manage. It's got to be Lilly, just because you can throw him (or not throw him) whenever. Also, I was starting to feel really confident about this game until I realized that Wells was pitching and our bullpen hates him...

Where's Sam Fuld? :D Couldn't think of a joking response here, so I'll just safely guess he's OPS 730 in AAA like he's done the rest of his career.

I really wonder if we could talk Bradley into batting leadoff. Even when he was struggling so bad, he was still getting on base at a decent clip. And he's hitting better now, but the power still seems to be nonexistant, besides the fact that we've had a power or nothing guy in the leadoff spot for 2 and a half years now. Bradley Riot Lee Ramirez Sori Fuku (Would be an ideal 2 hitter if he can turn it around) Soto Font