squally1313

I feel like for whatever reason, faking a bunt on the first pitch tends to lead to more 1-0 counts. Whether it distracts the pitcher, catcher, umpire, whatever, might not be a bad idea to get him ahead, especially if it ends up being something he can lay down the line.

I don't have a ton of faith in Jake tonight...there just isn't enough evidence over the last 3-4 months to make me think he can flip a switch. But he did have them very off balance in Game 2...if the Indians expand their zone trying to close this thing out, Jake should be alright. No guarantees though. However, whether by a dong attack or just smoking line drives all over the field, there is no reason we shouldn't tear into Tomlin early and often. If we have him on the ropes in the second or third, Francona will have to decide if he wants to go to Miller that early and leave Kluber on his own tomorrow, or serve up the soft part of the bullpen and let us continue to rake.

I know how much some of you guys dislike Cameron, but he just threw out another option I didn't see mentioned much....Lackey as reliever. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-maddons-other-relief-option-tonight/ Thoughts? Really a sign of how thin our pen has gotten when this doesn't seem like a terrible idea.

I'm not sure that hurts so much with Jake, as opposed to Hendricks or even Lester who loves that low outside corner to RHs. And frankly, if not calling a low strike means Bryant and Baez will stop fishing at low breaking balls, then I'm all for it. Throw a bunch of high curve balls to KB. Be my guest. Yeah, the Indians lefties thinking they may have to swing on that slider/cutter up and in on the hands would be a big advantage for us. And absolutely agreed on Tomlin trying to get a bunch of high strikes against pretty much all of this lineup.

This is part of it, but not the entirety of the issue. The worry isn't that the Cubs are going to take a bunch of curveballs for strikes, but that they're going to chase them out of the zone. It's more a worry for the back half of the lineup than the front half, and it's more of a worry the better a breaking pitch that you have. Tomlin's curve sits somewhere between Bauer's and Klubers on the quality scale, with more risk of him being like Bauer than upside to be like Kluber, especially on short rest. It's also good to remember that for all the hand wringing about Tomlin, in his outing where everything went right he still only went 4.2 IP. That's probably the best shot the Cubs have considering the Indians can pretty easily get 4-5 IP from Shaw/Miller/Allen, but the other half is still an opportunity. Shaw has given up 3 hits and 2 walks for a run in 3.2 IP. Miller has given up 5 baserunners(including a HR) and multiple lineouts in 5.1 IP. In a game where the Indians very easily might struggle to score 3, the Cubs don't need to bomb Tomlin into oblivion to have the upper hand. Yeah I'm not so worried about the Cubs taking curve balls for strikes as I am about them not doing much with the contact they make (lowest exit velocity or whatever). Also agreed on the rest of the game...Miller is obviously excellent (though him being left-handed and a fastball/slider guy lines up pretty well for us), and Allen is alright (though it's a down year), but Shaw doesn't do a whole lot for me, nor does Salazar at this point. He seems to have gotten away from Otero for some reason...he had a lot of success this year too. Let's hope the Indians come out looking like we did in Games 3 and 4 and are willing to chase Jake out of the zone. If West starts squeezing Tomlin, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

I don't think we can argue that this isn't the biggest Cubs game of our lives as we've never been 2 wins from a championship before. This is what we've been waiting for our whole lives as Cubs fans. Yeah I agree with you...just wanted to add in 'arguably' in case someone tried to say that game 7 against the Marlins was more important. It wouldn't be a terrible argument, but I'll take tonight.

Putting out the Duke and/or TT signal to reassure me/yell at me about this whole curveball thing. I feel like the conversation over the past 24-36 hours is that it's really hard to throw a curveball for a strike, and so with someone like Bauer you just wait him out and put him in bad counts where he has to try and beat you with a fastball, and then you strike (as Bryant, Rizzo, etc did). That all makes sense. Tomlin doesn't walk people. Obviously, he gives up a ton of hard contact...does that just mean his breaking pitches aren't good, and therefore we don't need to worry about the Cubs struggling against them? I know, big picture, it's dumb to be worried about Josh Tomlin and his 4.80 FIP for any reason, but just want to be reassured for if he gets someone in the first on a curveball in the dirt.

It is November 1st. The Chicago Cubs will be playing baseball tonight. In arguably the most important game of any of our lives. Let's horsefeathering go.

I want November baseball.

Caught up through the last ten pages or so this morning. Favorite part was the dude calling for an all defense lineup that somehow didn't include Javy Baez. Ok. Heyward isn't catching that ball, and literally no one is scoring on Soler's fly ball. That thing started out like 15 rows deep. Go back through the playoffs and I guarantee every single person in the lineup has popped a ball up and half-assed it down the line. Should they have been busting it out in case the shortstop drops out? In a video game world, sure. In real life, that's just not how these things work. We should have scored against Tomlin, and eventually we're going to need to break through against the bullpen. Miller is great, the rest don't do much for me. Wish Maddon would be more like Francona with Chapman, but it is what it is at this point. Even with that, we're still the much better team. Hopefully that translates into winning three out of the next four.

No If we have guys on base I'd do it without a second thought. No

Prediction #1: Soler is going to biff a fly ball in this wind. Prediction #2: It's not going to horsefeathering matter.

People upset about Schwarber not being able to play the outfield reminded me of this clip Like 33 seconds in if it starts at the beginning. [bbvideo=560,315]https://youtu.be/ZFsOUbZ0Lr0?t=34s[/bbvideo]

Hate to be this guy, but I feel like Jake is definitely getting the better zone so far. I'll take it.

He'll be worse nobody knows this, and even if he is, will he still be better than Lackey? I'd say most likely yes They'd all be going on short rest. Game 2 is Wednesday, Game 5 is Saturday for Bauer. Game 3 is Friday, Game 6 is Tuesday. There are studies on this page showing that pitchers on short rest in the playoffs, typically aces, perform worse than the average pitcher starting on normal rest. Yes, there is no way to know for sure if that applies to Kluber. But I like our odds. Game 4 against Lackey, sure. Game 7 against Hendricks? After his last start, I'd maybe take Hendricks over a well rested Kluber, much less one on his second straight short start.

He'll be worse

Jesus....imagine being 3-2 going into Game 6 against a short rest Josh horsefeathering Tomlin. They would just be drinking the champagne on the bench during the game, right?

The Spiegel tweets about this went on to talk about Contreras at catcher and Schwarber at DH, which would be about as offensive of a lineup as you can put out there. The Contreras part might have been speculation as opposed to insider info though... Fowler Bryant Rizzo Zob Schwarber Contreras Baez Soler Russell

The last word gives this sentence so many possibilities

I wonder if that factored into the decision to have him throw that much yesterday. Eh, if it gets rained out tonight, I assume they'll just make it up Thursday and keep everything else on schedule, so then it's four games in four days that he'd have to deal with. Would delay any potential benefit, and I guess the biggest chance of a blowout is Hendricks vs Tomlin, but not the worst if it gets rained out.

Remember right after the injury when some people were thinking he would miss the start of next year?

That's fair. And I think part of my motivation is definitely flawed in that I'm already thinking about next year...I want Contreras as the definitive starter and I want Jake, in his last year with the Cubs, to know if continues pitching like a 4+ FIP pitcher, he doesn't get his own catcher, and I'd like to see the continued confidence in Heyward given that he's here for a while. But all of that pales in comparison to winning 4 out of the next 6 games. In terms of this decision...could go either way (and probably doesn't really matter one way or the other...baseball being baseball). I'd just love a shutdown start from Jake tomorrow, and I'd love it even more if it was with Willson controlling the game from behind the plate.

I've vacillated on Miggy or Willson catching Jake practically every time Jake's started. One the hand, I see why Miggy is a good guy to have back there for him. He's pretty much the best framer in the league. Jake's a guy with a lot of movement on his stuff and he's had troubles hitting his spots. Miggy knows what he's doing back there and knows Jake and his stuff better than anyone. But, Jake's been unreliable, regardless of whatever we do to try to make him comfortable. You just can't designate a personal catcher to a guy pitching like a #4, because you might need to score some runs if he pitches like we've grown accustomed to seeing. And it's not like Willson is a train wreck or anything back there. He's graded out well with his framing. He's got a cannon for an arm. He's done a good job blocking pitches. He knows what he's doing back there, too. Hell, he caught and called an absolute gem from Kyle over the weekend in the biggest game of our lifetimes. So, I think I'd like to drop the idea of Jake being exclusive to Miggy. Where this game is a little different for me is because of the matchups. We have Schwarber back and can DH him. We have a hole in one of the corner outfield spots, thanks to Heyward being Heyward. So there is a spot there for Willson, if you still want to use him. And Bauer isn't overpowering or anything. He's had problems walking guys. Miggy always takes good ABs, even when he isn't hitting. He's disciplined and has a good eye. He's a decent bet to get on base, or even go deep, off Bauer. It's not like we are stuck using Miggy against Kershaw or something. I just think it's a good opportunity tomorrow to hope the Jake-Miggy connection pays off. I agree with pretty much everything you're saying. I guess, given the options, I'd take the better defensive option at both positions (Heyward by a lot and Contreras by a little) and go with Heyward giving you almost as much as Montero at the plate against a non-elite righty pitcher.

Arrieta's stuff is by far the hardest to handle on the staff, and Montero has done the best job of receiving that stuff. I haven't checked recently, but IIRC every strong outing Jake has had in the 2nd half has been with Montero catching. It's not a guarantee, Jake still has the most influence, but Montero is going to do a much better job of stealing strikes and knowing his stuff best for how to attack hitters. As far as the running game goes, that's definitely something to keep an eye on, but I don't think it's reason to avoid Montero's game calling benefits. Here's Arrieta's recent starts: NLCS/Montero: Reddick stole 2nd and 3rd NLDS/Montero: No attempts Pittsburgh/Montero: No attempts St. Louis/Montero: No attempts, Montero picked Adams off Milwaukee/Contreras: Villar steals 2nd twice Houston/Ross: No attempts San Fran/Contreras: Crawford stole 2nd and 3rd Pittsburgh/Contreras: 2 of 3 SB successful San Diego/Contreras: Jankowski steals 3rd Milwaukee/Contreras: Perez steals 2nd Not only does there not seem to be a huge uptick in attempts, but Contreras doesn't seem to have much of an impact either way. Thank you for doing the dirty work on this. This is where I started looking through Montero starts vs Arrieta starts to find the overlaps, and to be honest you're probably right, outside of an August 23rd outing where Jake went 8 scoreless against San Diego with Willson catching. The issue is that that was his last 'good-Jake' start besides his shutdown outing against the Cardinals, which I think everyone remembers. Other than that he's been pretty ordinary, if not below average. I think he can pitch that way to Contreras or Montero, so I don't see the need to cater to him. And I also think Coghlan (or Soler, or Heyward/Almora) is much better in the outfield than Contreras, and that's worth something too. Edit: Fixed which outfielder/catcher I was talking about in the last line.

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so... I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.