For what it's worth, I share your concerns about the starting pitching. Outside whatever Drew Smyly may be, we've more or less locked ourselves in to these 5 starters who are either at the peak of their age curve or clearly on the wrong side of it for the next three years. Yeah, we can live with burying a Chatwood contract if the other four aren't enough to rely on to win a playoff series (and hopefully they figure that out in the next month or so), but that's going to cost either money, which we have but theoretically have earmarked elsewhere), prospects, which we don't have, or young major league talent, which we'd want to hold onto. In terms of lopsided, hot/cold, etc...league wide, it's pretty clear it's becoming more of a boom/bust offensive approach. Hits are down, HRs are up (over 1100 more in 2017 than 2015). Whether that's led to a league wide deterioration in situational hitting skills, or if it's just that even when a single would do they're still going for dongs (hi Javy)...maybe a little of both. But it's going to lead to more big innings/games, and more stretches of ineptitude. This is no less meatball-y/generalized than any of your arguments, but just as they've established a track record of lack of clutch hitting, cold streaks, etc...they've also established a pretty clear trend of playing (or at least hitting) better in the second half. 2015: 1st half 88 wRC (24th), 2nd half 105 wRC (8th) 2016: 1st half 108 wRC (5th), 2nd half 101 wRC (7th) 2017: 1st half 93 wRC (14th), 2nd half 110 wRC (4th) 2018: 1st half 102 wRC (10th) My worry is that the pitching collapses right as the offense starts to click. We're doing the BABIP thing again, which should hopefully offset the fact that we're 3rd in ERA but 17th in FIP (and 22nd in xFIP). It's the same problem that became very glaring in the bullpen last October: we can't throw strikes. Only now we have that problem in the rotation too. We can assume/hope Chatwood gets Hammel'd come October, but Quintana is up over 4 walks per 9, Hendricks is at a career high in walk rate, and Lester's regression issues have been well documented. On top of that, our bullpen gets very thin if just one of Edwards, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow aren't healthy.