squally1313

This is a bad take.

You can trade major league talent (who have major league roles) if you have minor league talent there to step in and take over. When you trade the minor league talent, if you trade the major league talent you're left having to sign the Daniel Descalsos of the world. I'm not going to try and go back and recreate platoon lineups over the last couple years, but going into 2018 with just Javy and Zobrist as middle infielders, and needing Zobrist to play right field a bunch, would have meant way more Tommy LaStella than anyone would have been comfortable with. And that's trading Russell, who already had noted character concerns and was coming off a definite step back in 2017, so who knows what that even would have gotten you. Yeah, maybe you trade Baez after his breakout 2016 playoffs, but if we're going to revisionist history all of this, I don't think that's a decision that would have worked out. I don't think the 'plan' was necessarily to get 10-12 hitters, pick the 5 that were going to work out, and flip the rest for pitching. Thinking back on those drafts, it was hitter first, and then just a ton of pitching projects where you just assumed odds were that a few of them would pan out by the time Lester/Lackey/Hendricks/Arrieta were old/expensive. So far, we've seen zero pitchers, and that's what I think the real failure is. Ian Happ is the only player from the 2015 draft to see the majors. 2014 is Schwarber, Zagunis, and 11 whole innings from James Norwood. 2013 is KB, Rob Z, and Zack Godley (traded for Montero). 2012 was Almora then 7 straight pitchers, the 'best' of whom is Paul Blackburn. There's been nothing pretty much this whole decade, and so the excess offensive prospects we developed (that could take over for the guys who made the majors and then hit a wall) all had to go to fill in those gaps.

Ok fine, we won 95 games with a Kris Bryant that gave us 2.3 fWAR for the year. Right now ZIPs has him giving us 4.3 total for this year. That would be a pretty significant disappointment given our expectations after 2016 (and even after 2017). And still a clear improvement over what he gave us last year, when, again, we won 95 games. ZIPs is being REAL generous right now. And go with the whole "they won 95 games" mantra all you want. That was then. Fair, and that's a real uphill battle from 7-9...88-58 if my math is right, though that winning percentage over a full 162 only gets you 98 wins, so all hope is not lost. I'm just saying a 4.3 win KB can be both a disappointment and not the end of the world for the Cubs. And that I'd take the over on 4.3 in a heartbeat.

But...they did? They turned Eloy into a starter who was top 10-top 20 in fWAR oover the previous few years with a bunch of control. They turned Vogelbach into a swing guy with a ton of team control. They turned Gleyber into the best closer for 2016, then they turned Soler into an elite closer for 2017. They clearly prioritized trading people who were still in the minors vs players that had shown some level of major league success, but we've been in 'win now' mode for 4+ seasons now...it's not exactly surprising they chose to deal from the minors than take away from talent that was (at the time) producing in the major leagues for a contending team. I never slammed them for not being willing to trade prospects like Eloy, Vogelbach and Gleyber; Soler is the only guy along the lines of what I'm talking about. And trading guys like him doesn't take them out of win now-mode; I would have preferred for 1-2 more moves to happen along those lines to bolster the pitching more. I would have much rather gone after another Quintana-type of target than having to sign someone like Darvish. But the idea of trading them when their value was high implies that at the time they played important roles in present and future of the team. Schwarber was supposed to be a big piece coming off 2015 (and 2016), and he became an even bigger piece as Eloy and Soler were traded away. The outfield in general became much less settled when Heyward turned to garbage the day after signing his deal. Someone like Baez or Russell is expendable when you have a top middle infield prospect in Gleyber knocking at the door, but once he gets traded you're left with two guys who hadn't shown an ability to hit above .240 and a late 30s Ben Zobrist (who, because of Heyward, was needed in the outfield quite a bit). I know the board has pretty much always hated Almora and it's easy to think he had trade value given that he 'looks like a ballplayer' and 'plays the game the right way', but I'm willing to bet he has never been at the point where he would bring back anything of value.

I don't know enough about this statistics to really speak to them, and they all come with SSS issues obviously...LD% is up (would be a career high), but hard hit percentage is down a good amount. BABIP is in line with last year. I think he'll be fine....he doesn't have to hit any XBH if he can keep the OBP. But I think it's fair to expect less power just from general aging.

We won 95 games with a garbage KB last year. Who gave them about a .930 OPS in April and May and a .280 .384 .482 .867 line in the first half. Ok fine, we won 95 games with a Kris Bryant that gave us 2.3 fWAR for the year. Right now ZIPs has him giving us 4.3 total for this year. That would be a pretty significant disappointment given our expectations after 2016 (and even after 2017). And still a clear improvement over what he gave us last year, when, again, we won 95 games.

I'm not saying they're supposed to magically know which guys aren't going to pan out; I'm saying the assumption should be that some of those guys weren't going pan out because that's baseball, and the prudent thing to do is to take the inherent gamble on who they think that guy or guys might be and try to bolster another part of the team. To not utilize ANY of them as a trade asset is what bugs me. Maybe the right time never was there, but it just seems kinda glaring to glom onto essentially everyone of note you've promoted when the FO is supposed to be so good at being able to continue to spot and develop talent. But...they did? They turned Eloy into a starter who was top 10-top 20 in fWAR oover the previous few years with a bunch of control. They turned Vogelbach into a swing guy with a ton of team control. They turned Gleyber into the best closer for 2016, then they turned Soler into an elite closer for 2017. They clearly prioritized trading people who were still in the minors vs players that had shown some level of major league success, but we've been in 'win now' mode for 4+ seasons now...it's not exactly surprising they chose to deal from the minors than take away from talent that was (at the time) producing in the major leagues for a contending team.

Assuming the roof stays open, the way Hamels has been pitching (not a lot of walks, but with some HR problems) should play well tonight. It took me four clicks on guys with the last name 'Alcantara' to find the right one, and he also doesn't give up home runs. Our lineup is roughly 15x better than theirs, so hopefully this isn't an issue. And not to get meatbally, but I believe this is the first chance they have to close out a sweep, which is something Theo touched on a few times at the end of last year. Degree of difficulty isn't high here...getting to 8-9 before a six game homestand is pretty good considering where we were at 10 days ago.

We won 95 games with a garbage KB last year.

Or for not trading him when his value was high? That, and it applies potentially to multiple guys on the team. I get the video game appeal of fielding a team of almost nothing but homegrown stud bats, but that's not something likely to pan out, and it's not like the pitching issues were ever going to be something to take them by surprise with the way the team was constructed and how their drafting went. It's just long bugged me how seemingly every single significant minor leaguer they developed or drafted who got called up seemingly became untouchable once they arrived. I know a lot of it is hindsight, but it can't help but annoy me that between Baez, Russell, Contreras, Happ, Almora and Schwarber, NONE of those guys were traded when they would have brought back or helped bring back a really good return in an area of weakness from an area of strength. But that's only half the equation. Did you want to trade them for players at a similar cost and similar points in their careers? Because then you're just moving the issue around, and in your vision from positions that are usually much easier to predict (hitters) to ones much harder to predict (pitchers). Or did you want to trade for older, more proven but more expensive players? It's interesting you started that list with Baez. When did you want to trade him, and what do you think we could have gotten that would have turned into more than what we've gotten from Baez over the last year? I'm not at all opposed to criticizing Theo/Jed...the failure to develop a single pitcher, what looks to be multiple misses in free agency, and that's before getting into things like Chapman, Murphy, Russell. But it's easy to look back at Happ/Almora/Schwarber/Russell now and be like 'well inevitably they were going to turn into garbage, and only we were supposed to know that and flip them at exactly the right time' when 'the right time' was when everyone was thinking 'these guys are a big part of our future'.

For drafting him? Or for not trading him when his value was high? Or for not trading him not that his value is lowered? Or some other reason? For not trading him when people thought he was the second coming of Babe Ruth. I suggested trading both Russell and Schwarber when they had trade value. Good for you? Do you suggest trading Baez now? Or Contreras if he puts together a good three months? Probably should have traded KB coming off his ROY season given his play last year and this year.

People writing off KB after all of 70 PAs this year is honestly one of the weirdest things I've seen on this board recently.

Eh, I get what you're saying, but in a couple weeks, if the only thing holding us back from really putting it together is Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, I think we'll be in pretty good shape, considering the other very real concerns I've had in the last couple weeks.

Best park ever

Lol nevermind let's throw a four pitch walk to bring up their only hitter with any talent.

Let's hope Kintzler can still pretend to be good, hey look a double play alright

Javy had to make up for the stupid umpire overturn from earlier

KB would be so good if he could just play all his games in Arlington.

Fixed

That's an actual really good play by Almora.

Yeah the only way that's conclusive is if they found a way to sync up both replays, which is what I've been wanting across sports for years but have yet to actually see in practice.

Not expecting much with such a lively game thread, but if anyone has a relatively safe way of watching this (work laptop on hotel wireless), I'd really appreciate it and pay you back with one whole heart on the next post of yours I see.

Jason Heyward having a barrel rate of 2.9% for an entire year is so funny to me. I don't really know what the normative line for an average major leaguer but the fact that Jason Heyward only got the barrel of his bat on one ball out of 50 throughout 2018 is hilarious That dude spent 3 years being complete dog horsefeathers. He looks better so far but I will literally not believe he's having a good season until its like, August, and his numbers are still ok. Agree from a high level, but obviously the definition of 'barrel' in this context is much more specific than 'hit well'. If KB's barrel rate in 2016 was 11.9%, and my math is correct that he made in play contact 449 times (603 ABs less 154 Ks), that would imply KB hit the ball hard 53 times the whole year (with 39 home runs).

We probably can't afford him, but in the hypothetical world where we could, how does it work this early in the season? I keep thinking back to August/September waivers, where it's based on your record...does that apply this early on? Or is this a different situation entirely?

Hey what do you know, Almora in against another righty, Schwarber sitting again. Cool.