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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Pete Rose was obviously older, but his last 6 years (ages 39-45) were 894 games of 1.2 fWAR.
  2. squally1313
    To put on my 'actual baseball analysis' hat for a minute, KBs injury history, which is lengthy in number but not necessarily in longevity, will inevitably be baked into whatever market value he ends up hitting. In a PTR budget world, isn't he the kind of player we should be banking on anyways? When he's 100% healthy, he rakes. So make a bet on putting together a few healthy seasons and you've got yourself an undervalued player.
  3. squally1313
    Counterpoint: Every dollar Kris Bryant takes as a member of the Chicago Cubs is a dollar out of Tom Rickett's pocket, and while I agree that it is a very stupid system and yes, his 2026 production will probably not match the amount he is getting paid that year, he deserves that money way more than pretty much anyone else in the world. it's not a very compelling counterpoint, given there's a very limited number of dollars PTR lets Jed take out of his pocket Honestly, I don’t care. If the choice is a broken down KB or 4 2025 versions of matt Duffy/Eric sogard/etc, give me KB. If his contract is somehow the difference of anything, we’re fucked anyways. Ricketts have ruined most of this team, if they can have to write a check to a ‘bad contract’ while I can get flashbacks to The Good Times, seems like a win win.
  4. squally1313
    Counterpoint: Every dollar Kris Bryant takes as a member of the Chicago Cubs is a dollar out of Tom Rickett's pocket, and while I agree that it is a very stupid system and yes, his 2026 production will probably not match the amount he is getting paid that year, he deserves that money way more than pretty much anyone else in the world.
  5. squally1313
    Is Abbott a spot start candidate this year?
  6. squally1313
    Ted Lilly Also, the guy who was literally pitching the last two innings.
  7. squally1313
    That’s a really tricky/nuanced play. Rizzo was right, I think, but needs to communicate there. Edit: though based on the replay rizzo might have made the right play by accident by just missing the bag
  8. squally1313
    While giving zero explanation whatsoever about what they are looking at or how they came to their decision. With the added bonus that if that call was reversed, probably would have either let mills warm back up or bring in a new pitcher (because those were three terrible pitches)
  9. squally1313
    Tony doing big time Tony things today in the doubleheader. Trying to get years worth of NL managing into the handful of interleague road games they have. Brings in Hendriks with 2 outs in bottom nine, double switches him in to the spot that made the last out in top 9. Then puts him out at second base for the top of the tenth, even though, according to this link: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-new-features-for-2020-season (yes it's a year old, assume it still applies) you don't have to put your pitcher out there. Eventually gets to a first and third, one out situation, Billy Hamilton (who started, on purpose I assume) at the plate. They try to steal second with Leury Garcia for some reason, he gets thrown out, Hamilton strikes out, oops. Then in the bottom Winker, OPSing 1.066 comes up with guys on first and third, and Larussa chooses to pitch to him and not load the bases for backup first baseman Kyle Farmer (career .654 OPS) and Suarez (.556 OPS this year). Single, game over.
  10. squally1313
    Looking past the always fun sight of Kershaw getting hit around Wrigley, Kyle may not be totally broken after all.
  11. squally1313
    Is the company really coming out much further ahead than they would for a 9 inning game? Maybe shave 45 minutes off everyone's minimum wage time sheet, but you lose out on concessions for those two innings where the margin is super high. Definitely understand the frustration as a fan in terms of what you're paying for, but don't think it's changing the math too much on the Ricketts end.
  12. squally1313
    When people complain about games being too long, they aren't talking about extra inning games, they're talking about 9-4 games where both starters don't make it out of the fourth inning but we see like 13 different pitchers and 4 different replay reviews for a game that was never really in doubt. Either get rid of it, or just get stupid weird with it (every inning you have to remove one more player from the field, every count starts at 1-1, etc etc etc). I will say the only real benefit is that it speeds up my Diamond Dynasty Conquest games a lot.
  13. squally1313
    NFL Network had some crazy stat about there being only one first-round pick that Rodgers has ever completed a TD pass to. The Packers front office has refused to draft him a receiver his entire career. The best case scenario would have been the Packers trading Rodgers to the 49ers and then using that #3 pick on Chase [emoji38] They did draft him a couple of 2nd round WR that became pro-bowlers with Rodgers help and he also inherited another stud 2nd rounder in Jennings. In 2008 when they took Nelson, he was the 3rd WR off the board as there were none taken in the 1st. He developed into easily the best of the three and only DeSean Jackson taken later in the round has an argument vs him in the entire class. In 2014 they could have traded up for OBJ or even Cooks. But it was a super deep class and they waited till the 2nd and landed a future All-Pro in Adams. Poor Aaron has never lacked weapons. I think I saw in the last 10 years the Packers have drafted one offensive player in the first round....Jordan Love.
  14. squally1313
    Yeah, a lot of money, and a lot of very important Congressional races.
  15. squally1313
    Looking at a very high level, it just seems like he has no idea where his pitches are going. Basically a career high strike out rate, easily a career high walk rate, 15.6% barrel rate (previous high was 5.2%) which is the highest in the majors for anyone with more than 20 outings (though second is Ynoa, who made us look silly last night). I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's such a feel pitcher that the league constantly screwing with the ball finally put him in a tough spot, and he hasn't figured out how to make adjustments. Of course, tipping pitches would explain a lot of it too, but it doesn't seem like any particular pitch is getting crushed. No one is ever going to give up a 35% HR/FB rate, even if they're squaring up everything. But the rest of the profile still adds up to really bad so far.
  16. squally1313
    Is this math right, roughly? if you K 10 times, that means the defense is making 17 outs. Give them 1 HR per game (probably low, 30 in 23 so far) for one hit, and 1 double play per game (high, averaging .7 per game so far) to make it 16 balls in play converted to outs. That translates to 3 hits vs 16 outs on balls in play, or a .158 BABIP. Of course if you make it, say, 13 Ks, it goes to .188. The league BABIP so far is .283, but the lowest it's been since 2010 in any other year is .292. That was last year, so let's be pessimistic and say it's .290. I'm not smart enough to calculate the odds of BABIPing under .200 in a game when the actual number is .290, but I'm guessing it's less than the 1/3rd rate we're currently running. All this to say I think we're still getting unlucky, though it might not matter given our schedule the next couple weeks and by the time we emerge from that it might be too late.
  17. squally1313
    This is said with minimal research, but it gives the Hawks a ton of cap room going into next year after he goes onto LTIR (a la Seabrook). However, we're still stuck with the Kane/Toews/Keith deals in a flat cap era, and we're probably more than 2 top players away from being an actual contender, so there's probably going to be a decision made between loading up on a couple top FAs and hoping Toews comes back healthy and everything breaks right, but then having to make tough decisions when Dach/Kubalik/Strome/Suter/Hagel/etc come due in a couple years, or just committing to the rebuild, using the space to take on bad contracts for picks, and letting the kids develop (at the risk of Kane/Keith/Toews declining significantly). I think it's clear they are committing to the future and just hoping for the best with the old guys over the next couple years. They aren't going to give it all up for the next Campbell or Hossa. Do you think Kane/Keith have already had that conversation about a trade? Obviously they have their NMC and are very comfortable in Chicago, but both guys are such competitors that I can't see them wanting to spend the next 4 years babysitting an upstart team and hoping they have some magic left the next time they might see a conference final.
  18. squally1313
    This is said with minimal research, but it gives the Hawks a ton of cap room going into next year after he goes onto LTIR (a la Seabrook). However, we're still stuck with the Kane/Toews/Keith deals in a flat cap era, and we're probably more than 2 top players away from being an actual contender, so there's probably going to be a decision made between loading up on a couple top FAs and hoping Toews comes back healthy and everything breaks right, but then having to make tough decisions when Dach/Kubalik/Strome/Suter/Hagel/etc come due in a couple years, or just committing to the rebuild, using the space to take on bad contracts for picks, and letting the kids develop (at the risk of Kane/Keith/Toews declining significantly).
  19. squally1313
    Nico is very fun to watch, but it’s going to take a lot for me to ever see him as a key piece on a contender. Too many scrappy middle infielders from 2005-2014.
  20. squally1313
    Lot of credit to Jake for keeping it at one, but someone should probably tell him he can relax because losing by one or losing by 5 is still a loss.
  21. squally1313
    Javy is already thinking about his lefty AB
  22. squally1313
    Played a couple weeks ago, first time since December and after tearing/repairing my meniscus in January. Came back much quicker than I thought on the range, but much different story on the course. Lot easier when every shot is a flat lie and you only have 10 seconds between shots. Not to trash your range session, it's a great feeling. But I let that overconfidence carry into the round and then was pissed I played as terrible as I usually do, instead of being happy to more or less match my normal performance after an injury and 4 months off.
  23. squally1313
    Yeah was hoping today and tomorrow got canceled, even if it would likely cost me seeing DeGrom. Maybe we'll get Weird Baseball at least.
  24. squally1313
    Also I would like to super generously offer 2 free bleacher tickets for this beautiful, snowy, late April night. Just shoot me a message if you feel like getting a cold while watching Javy throw his back out at the plate. Edit: Sold on Stubhub for a grand total of $7/each. Tomorrow looks pretty similar, so same offer for those.
  25. squally1313
    Excited to watch DeGrom shut us down with the effort level of a simulated game, but but that's not really a rivalry thing.
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