But doesn't the 'actuarial reality' come for every team? By that logic, won't the Astros be worse next year too? I get that pitching is more susceptible than offense, but this was still a 6th in offensive fWAR, 3rd in wRC team with every major piece coming back next year. I don't see why regression is a White Sox unique concept, and so if you set that aside, the core they have (Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Vaughn, Sheets, Gio, Cease, Kopech, plus the guys in their 30s), don't need to improve much on 6th best offensive team, best pitching (by fWAR) team to have as good a chance as anyone the next couple years. Yes, but they needed a 2016 Cubs level of good outcomes to be the 7th best team in MLB(beating 9th by a game), and they don't have the financial resources of many of those teams to stay there nor the farm system(Fangraphs has the Sox system as 30th by a non-trivial margin) to keep up on that axis. And again, the implication isn't that the Sox are doomed, I like lots of their players and I'd be surprised if they don't have multiple other playoff appearances in the next 3-5 years. But in terms of the probability of winning a championship, I don't think those teams will be as strong as this year, similar to how the 2017-2020 Cubs turned out to not be as strong as 2016. But they didn't get the 2016 Cubs level of good outcomes right? Their team, by advanced statistics (total fWAR), was the best team in the AL this year, and 3rd overall. And then they lost to a 'worse' team. Maybe we're just splitting hairs on percentages (and maybe I'm just bored at work), but just replicating their level of play should give them as good a shot as any non-Dodgers team next year, and I think the room for improvement at least comes close to balancing out the expected step backs. Essentially, I don't think this is a 'the playoffs are a different animal and they don't have the resources to take the next step' situation as much as it's a 'the playoffs are a crapshoot and once you get to 8 teams you probably have between a 10% and 15% chance of winning it all, thank god the Cubs won one of their dice rolls' situation.