squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees
squally1313 replied to Bobson Dugnutt's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If this is a short term reset for the Padres, can we get Seth Lugo too? A mid rotation starter (2.8 fWAR in 26 starts, 3.57/3.83 ERA/FIP) for $7.5m/1 year solves another issue pretty cheaply. -
I know this isn't the ideal outcome but he can just be a bad defensive baseball player. He's been in the Cubs system for 7 years as a dude who was never supposed to have his bat carry him. It's a little naive to suggest something along the lines of like 'well why don't we just hit him some groundballs for a few months and take care of this issue'. 'He hasn't had a chance to really work and settle anywhere' makes it seem like he's been a professional baseball player for 7 years spending 40 hours a week in the batting cage. The fact that he hasn't found a single position anyone feels comfortable putting him at is an indictment on him, the organization, or both. The middle infield is filled. Less than zero interest in moving Dansby or Nico off positions they are elite at. Generally agree with TTs assessment, but I think the third option is 'maybe'. I don't think the Cubs should go into next year with Morel as a non-DH starter and a view of 'maybe he can do it'. But I think a rebuilding team can, and I think a team like the Dodgers could too.
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AL East went 0-7 in the playoffs this year.
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I just can’t imagine they haven’t already tried with Morel. Wisdom was abominable in may and June, madrigal wasn’t much better. He still couldn’t slot in. im pretty sure morel would be like, a third piece in a José Ramirez deal. His contract is super reasonable for his (elite) performance.
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I think ultimately we're on the same page then? I don't think he's a very valuable player in his current form. I see paths to him becoming a valuable player, but they mostly require consistent, starter level reps both at the plate and in the field, and I don't think we have the cushion, talent-wise, WAR-wise, however you want to define it, to slot him into our every day lineup next year. And I think, crucially, other teams are in positions to give him the reps he needs. He's a controllable, projectible player who is fun to watch. I think a non-contending team would trade 2 years of a good pitcher for 4 years of Morel. I think a top team up against a punitive luxury tax limit would take the cheap 1.5 WAR knowing that they can make up for it elsewhere. I think we need more next year.
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Not sure what to do with 'no stat has enough information to prove me right or wrong' Why are we talking about him as a second baseman? Don't we already have a really good second baseman? Didn't we kinda build the whole thing out of a really good middle infield? Morel took over second base in early July when Dansby went down. Something like 14 games. Dansby got back on 7/22. From that game on, Morel didn't start in the infield until 9/19, and didn't get a middle infield start until the second to the last game of the year (we were out of it, Nico got hurt). In that time we had Wisdom (mediocre defensively at best), Mastrobuoni (who knows), Madrigal (who learned how to play it on the fly seemingly), and Candelario (mediocre) at third. I assume someone in the organization knows what they're talking about when they came to defense, and after his two week run as our starting second baseman he was basically never invited back to the infield. Probably no reason! Any logical person in Morel's shoes would have looked at the roster post Dansby/Cody signing and seen third base as the obvious spot to fill, both in the short term and in the long run. If he couldn't find a way to get substantial playing time there this year, that's a knock against him.
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Yeah there's no one really out there super intriguing to go pay to take over third base, unless you want to sell the farm for Jose Ramirez. But I also think it's telling that they obviously didn't trust Morel at all at third last year, and I assume that was in the midst of him putting in plenty of work defensively. I guess he's fine as a DH option, would be even better if we found some lefty to take the heavy side of the platoon (Morel was .893 against lefties, .798 against righties). But I think that Wisdom and Morel are pretty redundant, and Wisdom giving you 90% of the offensive production with the ability to moonlight as a mediocre corner infielder makes the difference negligible, so then it's just a matter of getting the most you can by flipping one of them.
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Going to keep banging the drum on this: if we/Cubs leadership doesn't believe he's a viable every day starter on opening day next year (at potentially/probably an offensive premium position), can they afford to let him grow into whatever potential is out there for him by throwing him out there every day? Because if he's not an every day player for the 2024 team, and I'm not sold he is, it's going to be hard not to stunt his growth by putting him in some sort of platoon, not riding through his cold stretches, etc. He's a couple million dollars cheaper, but I assume he nets a lot more on the trade market. Basically, if we're just looking at the current roster, or we assume we just punt on third base going into next year, a Morel/Miles platoon is probably marginally better than a Wisdom/Miles platoon, but I'll take a Wisdom/Miles platoon + whatever we can get in a Morel trade over a Morel/Miles platoon (or handing the keys to Morel).
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I assume the easiest answer here is just that they wanted to split up the AL games and the NL games so you'd have baseball every night and not have to squeeze in 4 games on a weekday or whatever. But to your point, seems like something that could have been taken care of differently/earlier (run one of the WC series Monday-Wednesday, or even Wednesday-Friday). Kinda feels like they fell in love with the idea of having multiple game 3 all on one day in the WC series.
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As much as the analytical side of me would love like, best of 13s, it'll never happen, and honestly I'd get bored too. Agreed on starting the LDS early. If you want to punish the wild card teams, really lean into it. Make them take a redeye Thursday night and throw out their 4th starter in game.
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I don't remember the exact situations (though I do remember hating the bunting), but was it 100% established to be a Ross call and not the player making the decision himself? Ross doesn't seem the type to throw his players under the bus in that situation (which is a positive).
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5 teams won 92 or more games this year. They've played 7 games, all at home, and are 0-7. The lesson: take as many playoff shots as you can.
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4 losses and you're out after 162 is similarly crazy, honestly. The only way to fairly assign a champion is going Premier League style and ditching the playoffs entirely, which will never happen. Punishing the lesser playoff teams by throwing them into even more of a coin flip/more coin flips is all you can really do.
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I think the Twins are getting seriously slept on. Astros rotation is real thin, and the Twins have a bunch of dudes that came up during the year and have put together real solid seasons.
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I'd love to tell you that you're wrong on the first one, but you're probably right. Agree on the second part based on your work. Can't fully eliminate injury risk, but set aside the pride they have in their pitching lab/development for one signing and just get a late inning dude who is unquestionably good.
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Tom if the Cubs sign Ohtani and trade for Soto who should play first and who should play DH
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I think the correct way to phrase the argument for leaving Soto in left field is that it's theoretically easier to find offensive production in the pool of first basemen than it is in the pool of left fielders, and so Soto in left/hypothetical generic first baseman is going to give you a better offensive output in total than Soto at first/hypothetical generic left fielder. But, that doesn't apply here, because Ian Happ exists and is a good hitter for any position and so we're fine.
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In theory, yes, but until we catch up to the Dodger's ability to churn out talented players from their system, I don't think we can take the same attitude on free agency and expect to keep up.
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What do you mean by 'entitled to'? Freeman signed an 8 year deal that bought out 3 years of arbitration after having one good year (which came after 2 bad ones). Juan Soto making like $25m next year in his last year of team control and being incredible his entire career is not at all the same situation.
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I realize that I'm already doing pretty good in these arguments but I want to step back and take a slightly less nuanced approach and say that I absolutely do not give a single horsefeathers about the potential ramifications of the Ricketts paying Pete Alonso $22m in like, 2031 to be a mediocre first baseman. First off, not my money. Second off, you don't give these contracts expecting to extract positive WAR/dollar value every single year of the deal. Pete Alonso will be 29 next year. If he comes here and mashes dongs for 4-5 years during this very openly stated competitive window, I could care less if he turns into 2018 Chris Davis in 2031 and 2032. We'll figure that out later.
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Freeman got paid through his age 37 season. Matt Olson through 35. No way Soto, the better hitter, has to take a deal that only pays him through age 33.
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Disagree on how those two should be deployed in the field between those two positions, but certainly agree it should have nothing to do with their respective salaries.
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What would you pay Freddie Freeman if Freddie Freeman was 26 years old and also walked a ton more and had a .400 wOBA and not a .383 wOBA. Please give the number of years too, not just some total dollar amount. Freeman got $27m a year two years ago.
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Ian Happ: plays a perfectly acceptable left field, has played 11 games at first base in his major league career Juan Soto: plays a terrible corner outfield, has played 0 games at first base What part of that would lead you to moving Happ and not Soto?
