CaliforniaRaisin

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno. That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up. In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league. Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher. If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories. There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno. I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer. I understand how they rank prospects. But you're acting like Cedeno's ceiling is that of a utility guy, when it's more like potential all-star candidate, and he's ML ready now. This is the same guy that had everyone scratching their heads when Hendry put on the 40 man roster when he was what, 19 or 20, and not hitting well in Daytona? When he was put on the 40 man roster, that was because of his tools and ceiling, not because of his performance or proximaty to the bigs. In order for Pawalek to be rated higher while being so young and just beginning his minor league career, his ceiling would have to be more like that of a multi-Cy Young winner. I haven't seen him pitch nor do I know that much about him so I'm not going to dispute accounts of his ceiling, but that would be a huge assertion regardless. In my book, Pawalek = somewhat higher ceiling than Cedeno, while Cedeno = much higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling. I would trade Pawalek for Cedeno 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Correct on Cedeno being more likely to reach his ceiling, of course he'll be a major leaguer this year, and Pawelek probably won't be til next decade. Not really a fair comparison. And I don't think Ronny rates as an All-Star (of course, there isn't much at NL SS). He rates as an average-to-above average league SS. Similar to Julio Lugo, IMO. Pawelek's ceiling is of a #1 starter. I agree. Who would you rank higher?

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno. That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up. In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league. Let me ask you this then: If Cedeno was on another team, would you trade Pawalek for him? I would in a heart beat. 18 yr old high ceiling high school pitchers are a dime a dozen, such a small percentage don't pan out. Cedeno is worth well more than Pawalek at this point in both of the players stages of development. Thus, I'd rank him quite a bit higher. If that were the only basis of evaluating a prospect, the highest rated ones would be at AAA, then AA, etc. The point of evaluating and rating prospects is to determine which player is most likely to be the most successful in the big leagues. The prospects who are higher up the ladder are more likely to reach the big leagues than ones lower, but that doesn't mean they will be the better player in the big leagues. You have to account for the players ceiling, physical tools, ability and current production too. Otherwise, you're getting an incomplete picture. Of course, the question is how much do you weigh each of these categories. There is no doubt Pawelek is less likely to become a big leaguer, let alone a starter, than Cedeno is. But I also believe Pawelek is more likely going to be a perrenial all star than Cedeno. I wouldn't trade Pawelek for Cedeno. Let's not forget, there are still questions as to whether or not Cedeno can be a successful everyday major leaguer.

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success while Pawelek has a higher ceiling. BA is always enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno. That doesn't completely explain it though...If BA is more enamored with toolsier guys, that was always Cedeno until he hit AA. He was a young guy in his leagues who was a stud defensively but hadn't figured it out offensively. He always fit the toolsy high ceiling description until he found success at AA and up. In terms of ceiling and tools, Cedeno isn't in Pawelek's league.

It's not that shocking since in the team-by-team rankings, Pawelek was ahead of Cedeno. The reason Cedeno is lower is because he doesn't have a long record of sustained success. On the other hand, Pawelek has a (much) higher ceiling. BA has always been enamored with the toolsier, higher-ceilinged player. I agree with the order they ranked Pie, Pawelek and Cedeno.

To be fair, I forgot Dunn was moving to 1B.

By the way, BA ranked the Cubs' farm system at #15 in MLB - after 5 straight years in the top 10 (and 2001-2003 they were in the top 3). The NL Central: Brewers: 4 Pirates: 19 Astros: 20 Cardinals: 21 Reds: 29

Murton isn't a prospect anymore per BA rules, he finished his rookie eligibility last year. But Hill and Cedeno are still considered prospects. Murton would definitely have been in their top 100 and probably just behind Felix in their Cubs' top 10 list.

That was 2004, not last year.

I'd be interested to see if Hairston's OBP last season was inflated by his HBPs. He'd definitely be a better option than Neifi.

Within the next two years? SS Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks SS Brandon Wood, Angels 2B Howie Kendrick, Angels OF Carlos Quentin, Diamondbacks RHP Chad Billingsley, Dodgers LHP Jon Lester, Red Sox

Yeah, he was going from first to third. I believe the triple was in the same game, though.

I got my BA prospect book yesterday and it's glorious.

The Dodgers have 9 out of the top 100, the Angels, Diamondbacks and Marlins each have 7. The Diamondbacks should have 5 of the top 50 and 6 of the top 67.

51-100 is out, 1-50 out on Thursday. Looks like the Cubs will have three prospects in the top 100 as Mark Pawelek is at 85 and Ronny Cedeno is at 94. BA pegs Pawelek's ETA as 2008. I'd guess Felix will be around 30.

I prefer LA Crips. And the LA Bloods of Anaheim? Oh the rivalry.

C Michael Barrett 1B Albert Pujols 2B Rickie Weeks SS Felipe Lopez - meh 3B Aramis Ramirez OF Adam Dunn OF Jim Edmonds - meh OF Jason Bay SP Carlos Zambrano SP Chris Carpenter SP Roy Oswalt SP Mark Prior SP Ben Sheets - sorry Tim CL Brad Lidge SU Mike Gonzalez SU Derrick Turnbow

I think Neifi knows when someone's trying to steal and so he fouls it away on purpose.

Cubs prospects or anyone in baseball?

I think Weeks will easily surpass him this season.

I'd rather not burn all of our cap space on a corner. I agree.

Wade Miller is more likely to contribute to the big league squad, imo.

BA has him at #10 in the system. He's no longer a sleeper. :(

I'd rather look at Clements than Law.

Yes. Including some outings where he gave up like 6 ER in 2/3 of an inning - and got the first 2 outs of the inning too. BA Chat on the Cubs' system (access needed): Ron Potesta also read off his radar readings during broadcasts and they were noticably slower than his BA scouting reports from years past.

I don't think he will. You may have had to live through that to understand. Garvey is Bartman without the patheticness. I was 1 in 1984 and I hate him. Could be my time living in San Diego.