WrigleyField 22

I can't remember the criteria for big time throws. Isn't a pretty strictly yardage thing or is it somehow one of those yards over expected metrics?

Bad and boring about sums it up. Technically he is not anywhere near the boring quadrant. Just strictly bad.

BPA to me, has always been more a scouting/preparation thing. If you go in looking for a WR you can definitely justify it, but you're just opening yourself up to bad confirmation biases. So you kind of have to do the whole "7.34 v 7.32" rating thing with no positional/need bias and then when it actually comes down to it have more esoteric value based decision making. And it might actually be somewhat intuitive to directly "BPA" a WR and CB as an example, but is pretty impossible for a FS verse a G. Eta a guy I know online only and has pretty reputable claims to have done some contract work with nfl teams on systems design (mostly playbook stuff but has some exposure to draft systems) told me that the grading systems don't do nearly that level of granular grading. Probably more analogous to a 5 star rating system than a baseball type WAR metric. A little more complex, but not down to declaring 100th perctible variances across players.

Too early to call Gordon a wiff, as bad as Sunday night was. And what you're describing is opposite of BPA then anyways.

No one thinks so of the 2022 draft, for sure. There's a wide gap between "can't be replicated" and "rare enough that you embrace the opportunity when it's there". Yea there will be some Fields level talents in future years, but when you literally have no good alternative now and have no certainty of your ability to be in a future position to do so, you go for it.

Although to the WR point, parralel building does often mean established but still young WR with your QB.

You don't have to build it in advance either though. In fact parallel building is probably best so you line up primes. Lack of a first rounder aside, the Bears really weren't that limited in building around Fields even for 2022. They just went ultra conservative with cap use. I hope Cunningham picked up some roster composition and cap strategy from Roseman and is bringing it to Poles and we see it in 2023 and beyond. Roseman gets the cap mechanics better than probably anyone (though Loomis is up there with him). This was a decent primer article from this past spring that touches the surface a little. I like pre-building because 1) offensive linemen last forever so they're great value if you don't already have them and 2) it usually takes receivers and tight ends a year or two to hit their stride I'm not convinced how rooted in reality either of those things are, certainly not to the extent people treat them. There is definitely some variance in the research out there about career arcs and the significance of OL career spans. I have a suspision there is a selection bias for this that creates a greater impression than actualy exists. But anyways, parallel or post hukdikg with a Fields type talent > prebuilding with a Kenny Pickett talent. Obviously you cant predict what will be available in the future, but sometimes when the prospect is sitting there, you just make the move.

The off target % is bad there, but we're also dealing with such a small sample. Like the Mooney bomb was way off and that's 10% of his throws. Must have an impact. Over the course of last year, I believe advanced stats showed him to be a pretty accurate deep passer. The time to throw and target separation make sense based on what we've always known about Fields, even as a prospect. There's still a lot to work with and the O just has to meet him where he is and make marginal improvements in those araas over time.

What Philly has done with him is put him behind the best OL in the league. Also drafted and traded for WRs with 1st round picks. Bears are a long way from being able to emulate that. I wanted us to go that route so bad. I didn't even want to draft a QB until we started rebuilding the situation around the QB. Because I didn't want to end up exactly where we have ended up. The only good thing about losing to the Packers is it gets the rest of the fan base on board with my doom bonering You don't have to build it in advance either though. In fact parallel building is probably best so you line up primes. Lack of a first rounder aside, the Bears really weren't that limited in building around Fields even for 2022. They just went ultra conservative with cap use. I hope Cunningham picked up some roster composition and cap strategy from Roseman and is bringing it to Poles and we see it in 2023 and beyond. Roseman gets the cap mechanics better than probably anyone (though Loomis is up there with him). This was a decent primer article from this past spring that touches the surface a little.

Isn't Hurts a much better natural runner than Fields (and a weaker passer). I think Fields is still more the mold of a moving pocket guy who punishes you when you leave the run open, but he has the arm talent to develop into a primary passing threat more than a run-led threat. It's the recognition that isn't up to par with the arm talent right now though. That still has to be developed (with lots of reps and coaching).

Virginia will die and Pat Ryan will buy the team from the McCaskey estate and then force the coaches to start Siemian because he has a boner for everything Northwestern. That's the best I got.

this might be why we thing Fields holds onto the ball too long..the routes are long Are the targets exceptionally long, because I feel like it's been a lot of RB dump offs on actual targets. But I guess I can remember like 4 long targets off the top of my head so that is 14% of passes to help bump the average...?

It just helps show how constrained or not a QB is by the depth of routes being called by they OC. But yea the Bears one doesn't seem right, but maybe there's a "actually they've had a lot of deep routes/targets when the denominator is only 28" so it just doesn't feel like it.

I don't know if it's a weird small sample size issue or what, but this is not how I would describe my recollection of the Bears offense.

This is what they mean by processing time. He sees St. Brown and if he pulls the trigger right away he's got 6. But he delays for a second and in that time it seems like the CB has recovered to close some of the gap and ultimately he doesn't think its a safe throw because if its underthrown its an INT. At least that's how I see it as a complete amateur film watcher. And I think to some degree most young passers have this issue. But certainly over 28 attempts over 2 games (even if we add in all the pass plays that ended in a run/sack) , he isn't getting tons of live reps. I saw an inevitable comparison to Trubiskys first 12 games, which was his full rookie year. He threw 330 passes to Justin's 283? I know Fields had some not full games in this first 12, but Trubisky in a ultra conservative Fox environment gets of 17% more passes than Fields. That's just not good (whether there's excuses/context for some of it). As I go through other young unrefined passers of recent memory, they all way outpace those marks. Even if I travel back in time to a much less pass happy NFL in 2001, Tom Brady threw 330 passes in his first 12 starts, and Bellicheck was not throwing him to the wolves and trying to win behind him that first year. So even if Fields is missing 2-3 opportunities on his own each game, the raw numbers are low. And if youre scheme is razor thin enough that 2-3 missed opportunities throws the whole gameplan... That seems bad.

Re: the pass v run blocking, it would be interesting to just go count the box again on all those big runs in the second half. Down two scores, it may have been as much about the Packers D as it was blocking (plus some good broken tackles by DM to DBs)

Kmet was the 1st TE taken that year, but I think was always thought of as being a second tier TE in a good TE draft year (does that make sense?). That being said, he doesnt seem to be improving, at all. Its concerning. Yea, even at the time he was not viewed as a premier prospect. But either way draft positioning stops mattering the day they sign the first contract. His only excuse is youth as he's still quite young, but when you're dropping easy passes when your team is trying to rally... Youth doesn't seem like an excuse. Not asking him to fool defenders with vet wisdom in those situations.

Yea he's gotta learn from experience, but an extra legit pass catcher could certainly help smooth that curve a little, one would think. And I actually like Mooney quite a bit. But he's all there is really. I think I saw something about Pringle having good separation stats, but I'm thinking that may be more a product of being a tertiary option than his ability to create space. Also I'm pretty much done on Kmet. He's a decent number 2 and blocker, but damn he just doesn't make a difference on an O as a target. JAG. Some fans were hyping him way too hard.

The last time.l we clearly see a ball and not dark splotches, he is carrying it in this left hand. Lol Justin must have telekinesis and transferred to his right hand when we lose sight of the ball behind the blocker. you're misreading that. he's carrying it with his left and covering it with his right hand. he has both hands on the ball. But hell, look at his helmet, its broke the plane and even in that image the ball is further forward then his helmet His helmet placement is irrelevant. And that's not how he'd have been carrying the ball. He already had the point secured in his left hand. He wasn't transferring the point of the ball there. He projected the ball by keeping it close to his arm/chest which at that point are now roughly parallel, not perpendicular to the goalline.

Yea. Some blame lays on a combo of Fields and the protection and coverage, not just a straight counting of pass/run.

The last time.l we clearly see a ball and not dark splotches, he is carrying it in this left hand. Lol Justin must have telekinesis and transferred to his right hand when we lose sight of the ball behind the defender.

That's only clear if you're high. It's literally unclear. It's a mess to decipher. I'm really confused on why you want this to not be a TD so badly, but let me make it crystal horsefeathering clear to you. I want Bears fans to not embarrass themselves and cry ref on a too close to call challenge after a godawful play all on a night they were clearly overmatched. Even if replay didn't have the whole irrefutable proof to overturn burden that play is just soo damn close, it'd be more of a best guess scenario with limited facts (after considering how to apply a single camera angle on a question of a 3D plane issue). But it was maybe a TD.

That’s not how replay works. Come on, there's a small dark pixelated blotch though.

There's a dark area that's probably some combo of hand, the ball, or just a shadow. :dontknow: You can basically say definitely from that image that part of his wrist broke the plane, but that doesn't mean the ball did, since the ball was being held towards his body and he's roughly parallel to the plane at that point. It's pretty clear where Justin Fields ends and the ball begins in this image. The ball passed the plane. That's only clear if you're high. It's literally unclear. It's a mess to decipher.

No that's the best image and we can't see the ball because it's behind his left arm. [attachment=0]td.jpg[/attachment] There's a dark area that's probably some combo of hand, the ball, or just a shadow. :dontknow: You can basically say definitely from that image that part of his wrist broke the plane, but that doesn't mean the ball did, since the ball was being held towards his body and he's roughly parallel to the plane at that point.