WrigleyField 22

I think teams should probably be going for two way more regardless of the exact point differentials early in the game. Probably especially so if you're a bad O that ends of settling for many FGs. So I don't really care even what the models say, if Eberflus feels compelled to go for some 2pat, I'm not going to complain

Tank for Smith-Njigba

One of those things was supposed to stand for smart right?

Yea hate rooting for a tank, but let's do it and get Fields some targets. Fix OL in FA (FA WR group isn't great)

The Bears don't have a NFL caliber WR so they play dudes like this.

Rofl.

Lawrence, Wilson, Lance. He was fourth. But different drafts are different. The relative position number doesn't matter that much. Not nearly as much as the overall spot. Like Fields isnt Matt Corral and Watson isn't Malik Willis because every draft is different.

That leaves him tied for 130th place Is that bad? I feel like that's bad.

Like, Watson was 12th overall and 3rd QB and no one smart ever doubted he was a serious prospect.

I dunno if I'd call the 4th qb taken, after being passed over by 10 teams, a 'prized' prospect. He is. The 4th part is pretty much irrelevant and even the 11-15th is significant investment. But he's probably a top 5 pick most years. Easily would have been the first QB off board in 2022.

I definitely didn't think he'd trade up for a QB in a lame duck provide it year. I guess plan A was trading a haul for Wilson. Maybe extend ARob to a 4 year deal after that. Phew, close call. If the worst was a year 2 QB change for prized QB prospect.. coulda been much worse.

When it became clear they were going to give Pace one more draft, this was basically the exact scenario most of us begged not to have happen. Specifically trading up for a QB?

I was able to successfully pysch a fantasy football opponent into using a draft pick on Ebner, by dropping the "I heard Bears aren't happy with Herbert's pass blocking" during the draft. He still hasn't dropped him. Ebner is only rosters in like 1% of ESPN leagues, and this isn't a particularly deep league, but I think he's committed now lol. We'll see if pays dividends for him down the line lol.

Is a 1.5 pass block score good? It's like golf right? Red means good?

Yea that's a good point on the read option, although Fields isn't that great at that play at this point. But his athleticism over 1 yard covers that gap. But I feel like I've watched slow ass Foles types take that read option. It the D sells out one way, you can take the undefenderd route easily. But if you aren't a threat to pass or whatever it takes options away. But if your butted up to the goal line even a Tom Brady athlete can reach over at a pretty high rate. And really you could make the argument a guy with enough grip strength could one hand it to extend his reach because there's no "completion of the play" they have to go through there. Cross the imaginary plane and it's done.

So those rates are at a yard or less... I'd suspect the difference between a yard and a foot or less is a pretty big difference in the "just reach over" decision. At a yard, yea get the extra blocker. Down to a foot, or inches. Just get under center and reach. So, I actually get why teams do the shotgun run when they only need a yard. Out of the gun, you aren't really picking a hole before the play and running thru it. You are giving your RB a chance to pick his hole based on where the push is. Whereas under center, you are going thru a predetermined hole and hoping your OL blocks it up well enough. My biggest issue with what the Bears did is more with the play call itself. They basically did a QB sneak from 4 yards away. Fields got to read the blocking a bit, but he's also not a RB. Snap it to Montgomery and let him go straight ahead or hand it off and like DM find the soft spot (he's actually not very good at this though). So I think the benefit of the QB taking a snap is you can clear some defenders by making them respect a wide out (I don't remember if Bears did in that play) Obviously like you said, a RB is gonna read holes better. But you definitely don't want a handoff. That removes a potential blocker. So direct shotgun snap is the best/logical play, but maybe you make the case for a Wildcat scenario where you remove the QB from the play completely. If a D REALLY sleeps on it you might have a RB who could still make a dump sideline pass if they leave a WR completely uncovered.

So those rates are at a yard or less... I'd suspect the difference between a yard and a foot or less is a pretty big difference in the "just reach over" decision. At a yard, yea get the extra blocker. Down to a foot, or inches. Just get under center and reach.

Bears have so few passes I'm not even sure it's statistically relevant. Depending on what the % of targets as pressure is, you can file this under "Fields has no time" or "Fields takes too many sacks" or "Fields bails on the pocket too quick"

And I feel like I've made this point, but if you told me 5 weeks ago "Bears will lead the NFL in run rate" I'd have said, "no horsefeathers", but I might have thought it'd look better than it has. I think Dilfer talking about getting throws in on more nuetral to run favored scenarios is key. Or just go with a random play generator. You'll be unpredictable at least.

I have no idea if this theory is actually sound but given the Bears ridiculously high reliance on the run, I imagine that leads to less possesions/overall plays. If that theory is correct then I'll make another assumption that less possessions means less opportunity to separate from your opponent, thus a spread that is lower than you might expect. So they're the 13 seed mid major trying to grind games to a halt and play for variance.

:|

From a a single fan view watch, I'd say last week it was a median rookie performance. At this point for 2022 I think Fields merely looking like a rookie and hopefully not suffering and long term development delay would be best case scenario. But I'm not totally convinced 2023 actually turns into a "let's see if we can maximize his development" instead of bad plaititues about building a whole team and making him prove it first (which almost no young QB is ever asked to do let alone succeed so).

Also it looks like Sam Mustipher is going on a Twitter block rampage and damn if the joke doesn't write itself.

Great to hear re: Fields. I've come to accept that improvements are going to come gradually. I was thinking today that they are probably looking at Fields as a 1-2 year project. And while I'm not sure how giving him nothing to work with and getting destroyed by opposing defenses helps him, I think they are content with doing what they do best (run the ball) and slowly bring Fields around as he (and the team as a whole) gets more comfortable with the offensive system. Maybe the FO never saw him as the answer and are trying to prove it but I also think that the team has so many holes and are committed to building through the draft so the last thing they want to do is use a high 1st on a QB at this point. Seems like a very old school approach to QB development when we've seen quite a few young QBs figure it out quickly (especially ones with multiple years starting at a major P5 school) so don't take this post as me necessarily being on board with the plan. Just trying to make sense of whats happening out there. Just from a fan standpoint it definitely felt that way from last week to this week. He looked more like a struggling rookie than a guy completely overwhelmed. Just gotta build. At this point it's clear the starting point for Fields was back to zero and not from like the Pittsburgh game high of his rookie year. Theres still a prospect there, but he's not a unicorn. Just a very talented guy, but who's success is far from certain (this is what most young QBs are).

Any of them. Victor in 2019 is the only 6'3"+ target of any significance he had at WR at Ohio State. No, his targets at OSU weren't particularly big, but they were far more talented than your average college DB, where the talent differences are much more pronounced. He could throw deep ball after deep ball last year from clean pockets and Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba (who I would lvoe the Bears to pick next year) would either dust their DB and be wide open, or were good enough athletes to GUAGI That's kinda the point though. I'm not entirely sold that Fields just needs a go up and get it basketball threat because those guys aren't gonna look as open in the passing game. Obviously if you want him to be THE guy, he has to throw to either, but if you're looking to maximize early success and then build, maybe he needs more horizontal speed separators to get comfortable. I remember Kurt Warner talking about this adjustment as well though going from the greatest show on turf to throwing to Fitzgerald in Arizona. Fitsgerald's open looked a lot different than Bruce/Holt and he had to get used to the guys not being 2 yards separated from a defender. But thats adjusting to throwing it up to one of the best WR in his generation, not some run of the mill basketball target. And Fields isn't a vet with 3+ years of quality NFL starts either. In 2023 you could probably overpay Lazard to a contract the Pack won't want to compete with. But it's not looking like a good FA class. He's the basketball target type, and will be among the better FA market in this class. Otherwise it's draft or a likely expensive trade market. Pretty sure Christian Kirk could create some separation right now, but everyone dunked on Jags for overpaying. Probably some options for actually patching the line at least. Orlando Brown, how do you feel becoming the highest paid tackle ever?