WrigleyField 22

Bears haven't drafted* 1.1 since 1947 *I don't know if they ever finished #1 and traded down since then The Player they drafted, apparently he was injured, but still, yikes

Trevor Lawrence should be next. Yea it drops off, but he's only started two games. Like... there should be a snap minimum or something lol I'd also definitely put Brisset after Lawrence.

Tyler Huntley is the 4th alternate fir the AFC Pro Bowl Huh?

It's down to Mcglinchey or Brown at T. I thought of Jenkins as an elite G who struggled at T. Fine with McGlinchey. He doesn't really help pass blocking... So they'd still be a much better run blocking unit than pass blocking unit. They could always plan to trade down a couple and still get Skoronski, but you're playing with fire a bit there if you get jumped as there aren't many other highly rated tackles.

And cash is used in 3 year windows. Anytime you agrue that 1/3 of that window is gonna be a totally lost year... It's a tough move to justify. They spent like 60% of what they'd need to do on a yearly minimum/year on a three year cycle. Money's getting wasted one way or another. Kirk, Cooper, whoever would look great here even if Fields had busted.

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one. I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead. I was fine with NOT paying a WR. Like you can't make that trade for Cooper (even if the Browns didn't give up a ton) if you are not sure you have a QB. That is wasted money, paying a guy 20Mil to get 600-700 yards because your QB is on his back or just bad. Plus, he is a FA after 2024, so if Fields wasn't the guy you'd probably have wasted 2022 on Cooper + 2023 because next year would be the year you're either benching Fields if he's Zach Wilson bad or you'd get rid of him and bring in another QB with the 2nd pick and spend a year developing him with no talent around him either. Same w/ Kirk or whoever. Don't want to be stuck paying a WR 18Mil when you don't have anyone worthwhile to throw to him. Juju's actually bad and is a zone beater only. He doesn't help with the Bears separation issues at WR. That's all so counterintuitive. Money just isn't that scarce of a resource. You're better building around a failed QB, then adjusting, than not building when you actually already had a QB in place. GMs just aren't good enough to thread needles like that around timing. You have to be in constant build mode or you minimize your usable windows.

People were wrong. The Kirk deal is fine. I personally liked Zay, at that time, no hindsight.

Yea, even if Poles was putting Fields into a prove it mode, an extra OL and WR would have been building blocks even if Fields turned into a flop and Poles wanted to pivot. They could have thrown around 25-30M extra in AAV and still had boatloads of 2023 cap space. As we just saw with Jenkins getting an extension done today, once teams re-up their guys, spending a 120M haul in one offseason doesn't look easy. Diminishing return of cap space.

Beleiving that is exactly the problem he absolutely could have gotten a bigger name WR and OL at minimum to jumpstart the offense and teams rebuilding. This massive cap space they have in 2023 didng materialize out of thin air, but is a direct result of punting in 2022 FA. Believing they can't spend now and extend Fields later is basically owner propoganda. I'm not saying they can't spend now. I'm just saying they have to spend while keeping an eye on the biggest prize (Fields). They are clearly going to be going on a significant spending spree this offseason since the cupboard is so barren. As it appears right now, the biggest influence on the Bears spending is gonna be the required cash minimums. By the time a Fields extension comes it won't matter one iota that they held back spending in 2022.

I don't remember any bigger name WR's that were reasonably available. Hill, Adams and Kirk signed lucrative deals. AJ and Hollywood Brown cost a small fortune in draft picks. After those guys, you have JuJu, Zay Jones, Corey Davis, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, etc.... Who could they reasonably afford that improves the WR room this past offseason? Granted, I wanted them to go WR with one of those 2nd rounders. But rookie WR's aren't a guarantee to be better than what they have in the first year, either. Kirk's deal was worth the money. Add in Zay Jones too. The last guy I liked who hasn't produced is Cedrick Wilson, but you could at least make a case he's stuck behind Hill and Waddle. When he got snaps in Dallas he produced. Juju has been great for KC. Not sure what type of deal he would have taken to come here as he obviously took a one year deal to prove it with Mahomes as his QB. And then Cooper was available in trade for peanuts.

Beleiving that is exactly the problem he absolutely could have gotten a bigger name WR and OL at minimum to jumpstart the offense and teams rebuilding. This massive cap space they have in 2023 didng materialize out of thin air, but is a direct result of punting in 2022 FA. Believing they can't spend now and extend Fields later is basically owner propoganda.

Thoughts on the Bears draft pick odds. Thread has some added thoughts and I may actually be understating the #2 pick odds and overstating the #3 pick odds because the LA-DEN game is such a dependent driven result and I more modeled the odds as totally independent, which isn't technically correct, but greatly simplifies the efforts.

I am more concerned about his ability to find talent than making proper cost benefit analyses. Most guys at least come in and acquire a handful of quality players in their first offseason. But Poles failed miserably there. Not a single good offensive player and a couple ok defensive guys. This team is still largely a Pace acquired roster, especially at all the difference making positions. That’s weird.I mean I guess. But to the extent he tried it was kind of a small sample with objectively low ceilings. He whiffed on low ceiling FAs, but he can't build his roster plan around low ceiling FA guys in 2023.

I am more concerned about his ability to find talent than making proper cost benefit analyses. Most guys at least come in and acquire a handful of quality players in their first offseason. But Poles failed miserably there. Not a single good offensive player and a couple ok defensive guys. This team is still largely a Pace acquired roster, especially at all the difference making positions. That’s weird. Eh. I know the jury is still out on them (as it is for most of this roster, including Fields), but Poles has added what looks like at least an adequate, Charles Leno level LT in Braxton Jones and added Chase Claypool who is potentially a very productive WR in a good offense. But yeah, the guys to most likely be "stars" of a playoff contending team are from the Pace era (Fields, Jackson, Jenkins, Herbert maybe, Mooney and Kmet maybe) Yea, I laugh every time people say Poles isnt gonna spend as heavy in FA because Mooney, Kmet, etc are all gonna be extended. Which to a certain degree is possible, but also hilarious if the winning plan was "Pace's QB and resigning most of his recent picks"

On the other hand it's possible he's a Ballard-like "stick to my valuations" guy which is just code for u have no risk tolerance and don't understand markets. We'll see!

The only real question is if he actually is capable of making proper risk-benefit decisions in FA. 2022 FA points to no, but may have been a tank/culture building combo. He basically has to have a 180 FA approach in 2023. Be agressive early and often and most are gonna look like overpays. But that is the path that has been built up towards (partially legacy from Pace, but also because of how 2022 went)

Only if they don't adjust.

I've said it in this thread before, but to me the way you do PKs is you make all players live at the whistle. Defenders can try to get to the ball or cut off part of the goal(so no exaggerated slow run ups that don't mimic any other soccer play), and the keeper can come off his line to cut down on the angle. Most of them will still get scored, but this better represents real play(like a breakaway) and the success rate drops enough that they are less overpowered during regular play while shootouts become a little less random. But to IMB's point as a fellow HS GK, there is nothing more satisfying than stopping a PK, every time is basically like robbing a game winning home run. This sounds like it could still torment IMB for decades so I'm fine with it.

Hurts and Taylor hurt the last week of my regular season (1st place team) :| :| :| Am I going to have to trust... Gulp... A waiver wire Rodgers to help save my season?! Either way I'm hammering the hedge bets hard this week. Taking all the under yards on my guys and over yards and anytime TDs on my opponent.

Lose out, worst case pick is #2. Win one, worst case #4 Win two, worst case #8 Win out, worst case #13 In each case, there is a set of 4 win, 5 win, and 6 win teams that play eachother, thus raising the floor at each win mark. Plus various games between those groups that will adjust at least one of the floors each game. Time to root for the LA v Denver tie though because each has a pretty high lose-out odds after this week.

I now support PKs after IMBs feedback in this thread.

A series of fun Fields v Eagles facts

I think everyone hates the shootout but they can't keep playing forever. My personal view is make it "golden goal" - ie whoever scores first wins (so Argentina wins when Messi score yesterday). Yea I was admittedly surprised as I looked up thr overtime rules and found out wasn't a golden goal situation. Sounds like they did it for a while before abandoning again. Is there some purist arguement against it?

42% chance to lose out per 538s Elo rankings/prediction. If they were to lose out, they'd have about a 13% chance at the #1 pick. So about a 5% chance of picking #1. Top 4 odds look great, as the Bears only have about a 15.5% chance of winning two or more. If they won 1, worst they can do is 4th.

Been an awesome weekend in the tank standings