There are 3 tiers of 2nd contracts for RBs. The elite tier is 15-16M/year = McCaffery, Elliott, Kamara The 2nd tier is 12-12.6M/year = Aaron Jones, Henry, Mixon, Chubb Then the 3rd tier is all the way down at 7-8M/year = Conner, Fournette, Ekeler Now there's a guy in each tier that probably shouldn't be their (Elliott down 1, Henry and Ekeler up 1), but I think Montgomery would rightly value himself in that 2nd tier. Maybe he's not on Derrick Henry's level, but he's clearly better than Fournette and James Conner. And Barkley obviously belongs in that elite tier. So, you're talking about 12M for Montgomery vs. 15M for Barkley. Barkley is worth that difference. Now to be fair, Montgomery may not get 12M on the open market as all those guys re-signed to avoid hitting the market, so there may not be an open market to pay a guy that much. But that's besides the point for the Bears who would be paying for him NOT to hit the market. I guess there's a scenario where he hits the market, realizes he's not valued in that 2nd tier and signs back with the Bears for like 7-8M/year, but that's risky for the Bears to let him hit the market. And still, if the Bears miss out on Barkley, they could go much cheaper than 7-8M for a backup RB and give the reins to Herbert. I was surprised when you got to the part of Montgomery being in the second tier. I do not think the broader public views it that way. I just looked at a few different lists for the top FA RB's for example, and Montgomery is usually 5th on those lists. That would be a stunning contract for me if he got 12 million a year. A year ago I would have said DM had a chance to hit 12 to match Mixon (which isn't even the same as cap% adjusted that would still be a smaller deal). But I definitely got less bullish on that just on how the market has shaped up, and partially just on DMs play. He didn't really change, but I think seeing Herbert's explosiveness in the same scheme really confirmed some of DMs weaknesses. Plus I really think Mixon proved he isn't worth that deal and Aaron Jones had a similar deal he just agreed to negotiate down. So I think the RB market still hasn't fully had its corrective adjustments in the market. Still has some good things going for him, but he's really a short yardage and 3rd down back, who's ideally paired in a timeshare. PFF has him at 3/19.5 I had put it at 3/25 before they did that estimate. That seems like a likely range though, unless he gets stuck holding out and missing the market and has to go with more of a prove-it deal.