WrigleyField 22

37,881. Wonder if they'll get to me this season... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not bad. I don't love your top RBs but do like Ellington. Lynch I'm definitely worried about. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

3 QB's that are good bets to finish in the top 10 or 12 that their position. I would almost look to trade Brees for a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant if possible. I would be more than comfortable rolling with Ryan and Romo. Or try to package Romo/Brown, Ryan/Jeffery, etc for a top tier WR. I won't look to consolidate QB at first but it's certainly possible if things go well. I really like the certainty of Brees so I don't want to trade him yet. In fact Romo and Ryan I really just got as potential keeper plays even if they never start outside of Bree's bye week. This is also the first time I ever spent big on D but I had to much cash to not justify splurging. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On the other hand Alcontara could have a career 323 OBP and have a Dawson like careet Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well whatever WAR Dawson put up he did partially as a CF with value on the base paths, so Soler will need a higher OBP than 323 to have a similar overall impact. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Who was it that basically had a run like that a few years ago, the Rockies? Let's do it! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Replace Sweeney with Soler. Lineup for rest of year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Guess he has to put away the Bears gear for the time being haha Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, really what's the point? Nobody plays the 4th game. Get at most 2 series in the 1st game. Just cut it down to 2 games. Keep them same time of year. Give 2 weeks off before the opener. If the NFL wants to make money off this [expletive], then televise some scrimmages against other teams. Hell, put them in stadiums and make people pay for them. As someone who's about 1200 miles from Bears training camp, I'd much rather watch Cutler in a red jersey practicing situational football (red zone, 2 minute drill, etc) against another team than watch David Fales throw to Josh Bellamy for 3 hours. I wonder if they could make a 2 game preseason with some type of summer/development league of 4-5 games in that July lull. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is interesting, but I can't make the draft. Am I annoying if I join and auto draft considering trades are allowed ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well that's nice but his only other reference points are the Redskins, Bengals, and Jaguars. I'd hope every player would choose the Bears first among those.

I hold out hope Mike Olt can become a backup IF who provides replacement level value based on his defense and power during his cost controlled years.

I went to the first preseason game and he looked fat all the way up from the top rows if the stadium

We stinks.

So if the model is to basically take the current ZiPs® and extrapolate it out to a full season, its not nearly as nice to Ruggiano and Coghlan who others have used as support that we have depth. Neither would be 2WAR players over a whole season with that model. And also Rizzo probably isn't as good as his WAR this year. Only Rizzo and Bryant have a chance to put up real big WAR value (and as awesome as Bryant is I'm pretty skeptical about those preseason projections from Oliver which state that). Most of our guys fall in the 2-2.5 range, and that's assuming full seasons, so there's all the partial players who would still get PA at lower WAR paces. But you take a lot of the good teams and they have at least one guy who is (as of today) a 5-6 WAR monster plus either a few at 3WAR or even 6WAR pace in partial time. Or as a team, the top teams will likely end the seasons with 25+WAR production out of their hitters. Taking only the best 7 projections from that methodology and average catcher production (using preseason rankings for Soler and Bryant*) we'd fall about 20 WAR from our hitters. Still an upgrade from this year, but there's room for improvement. And there is roster and dollar space to bring in additional players. Now while you can't add those extra PAs in there, it just helps to minimize risk overall, whether it be injury or performance risk. We have roster space, we have cash, we have some versatile players. The more 2+war type projection guys we have, the better. Sure a higher WAR player that would legitimately bump a guy down would be nice, but those aren't as available either. *pre-season projections seem really kind to Bryant and harsh to Soler. Intuitively it would seem to be more in the middle for both.

Probably true, but Soler's leg will probably fall off.

Is Zips® the right projection to use for this purpose over Zips(U)?

during the same time-frame you're referencing, Josh Harrison has been the best player in baseball (and Ryan Braun one of the 5-worst); it's not a terribly useful sample size projection systems still like him, and scouts still like him...sometimes players slump I see some basically replacement level projections and a 7%/27% BB/K rate in 172 PA.

I find your logic illogical. Its like someone who says they're not opposed to some political thing when its so obviously the right that by not being for it is just another way to be against but in an attempt to not looking like a horrible person for being outright against it.

Also I'll just say again being "not opposed" to a OF is not enough. With our resources and current projected lineup it should be a top priority just like getting a FA SP (or two). If you're simply "not opposed" you're basically opposed.

It can't be much clearer he is worried about pushing guys out of the lineup. I'll pick on this one. It's pretty clear that he is more worried about what Castillo's level of production is going to be than pushing specific players out of the lineup. He specifically says he could support signing Castillo if the idea is to make Alcantara available in a trade, but isn't sure that Castillo's production will make that worthwhile. Otherwise, he is saying the most likely scenario for 2015 is that Alcantara is in CF and Castillo would be in a corner. When Bryant would come up in May, he is suggesting that it would push Valbuena to the bench. He is specifically questioning whether Castillo's production would be > Valbuena's plus whatever we could get for $60M. Now, I could point out that there are two corner OF's and the only way Bryant would have to push Valbuena to the bench given the presence of a FA OF is if Bryant takes one corner and the other is taken by Soler or the Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon. But this comes back to TT's point that the platoon and Valbuena have both been productive positions for the Cubs this year. Having them in place as veteran options mitigates the benefit of signing any additional offensive FA's. I'm not against acquiring an OF (which seems the obvious choice), but if we are going to lock down a position I would hope that we'd go big with the acquisition instead of getting someone just for veterany goodness. Signing Castillo or whoever doesn't lock you in anywhere either though. There's only 3-4 guys that really absolutely should and realistically I expect to get 600+ PA. Bryant will likely be held down, Soler has an injury history, I don't trust Coghlans run this year. Ruggianio is a platoon guy IMO, and Alcantara and Valbuena aren't good enough to pass up other good hitters ($60M or whatever be damned because there is no foreseeable budget crunch). That leaves Javy, Castro and Rizzo who are locks for PA. And I'm not about "veterany goodness". As stated Castillo isn't an MLB veteran. I am about adding to our options and there isn't too much plausibility in not having the resources to do so.

Sure it doesn't outright state he thinks that's gonna happen but people are still talking about how awesome Alcontara is going to be and he hasn't done much after his first few weeks. I'm pretty sure that very post you quoted was :begging: to sign Castillo. I don't think that person was hoping for Welington Castillo's productivity out of LF. Ha missed that part in between hoping Alcantara, Javy, Soler, and Bryant to be Castro and Rizzo clones. Of course that lineup would be a favorite because we'd have three of the top four HR hitters in the NL plus a bunch more 700+ ops guys. And that's apparently what stands for super pleased. Maybe this dudes just really dull but I'd be super pleased if those prospects were 2013 Castro and Rizzo and I'm pretty sure he's talking 2014 versions. If they were 2014 versions... I don't even know if there are words.

Valbuena and Coghlan/Ruggiano have each been 2+ win players at positions there is a potential need for next season. I'm on board with adding another bat, but the depth is there now to hedge against a prospect falling flat or an injury or two. Nothing to controversial here, but we still only go about 10 deep on hitters, so Coghlan/Ruggianio isn't enough backup for me. It can't be much clearer he is worried about pushing guys out of the lineup. Yeah, I fail to see the craaaaaaazy part of that previous statement. 55Mil+, assuming for 5 years is about what I expected. If it's only 4 years, that's still doable. Probably going to pay someone lesser similar annually (maybe not as many years) if they sign an OF. doubtful Bryant* / Contra / Soler *Ruggiano / Coghlan til May That's in response to "signing an OF" Can't sign an OF cuz were gonna move our 3B top prospect to LF (not sure if to save Valbuena's coveted role or for the AA prospect) 2015 lineup thread as stated has other similar stuff.

Okay it's not scoffing but definitely too much contentment with an all prospecty lineup. The 2015 lineup thread, in between Sulley's Castro/Hammels trade has a lot of homegrown lineups thrown out with no real mention of FA or trades. At this point not automatically including a FA on projections is severely overrating our current hitters. Sure it could still happen that we don't sign a FA hitter because of value issues but the message board offseason predictions don't usually include just missing on guys. And this good gem from that thread. Sure it doesn't outright state he thinks that's gonna happen but people are still talking about how awesome Alcontara is going to be and he hasn't done much after his first few weeks.

Rob is the best example in this thread. May have to look at other threads to fine more examples (perhaps 2015 lineup thread?). Will report back.