WrigleyField 22

I definitely tried to do something like that at a very basic level. Looked at seasons 1-6 and 7-12 as two queries and crossed the references against each other to. Include guys who only made one list. Obviously wanted to keep out the 1 year wonders so 5-ish cumulative seasons is probably a decent target to even get into an elite list, but I went with 6 just because that was where Mack was starting at. Also, as mentioned guys like White and Dent who were very strong through 6, I noted that even if they dropped off, they still had strong numbers. So they didn't age well from a comparative point, but did still in an absolute sense. Definitely there could be more sophisticated ways to do it (for one, trying to do a rolling 6 season as you might find a guy who was elite in years 3-8 and made neither of my lists). Also perhaps need my second leg to meet a slightly more generous threshold. For example if a guy went 12, 12, 10, 9, 4, 0 his last 6 seasons, he still aged fairly well (and such a result I think most Bears fans would be happy with from Mack considering the contact), but he'd miss my second list threshold. So, doing this again "properly" and not quick and dirty, I'd probably try something like "best 4 seasons" against rolling average 3 seasons over their remainder of their career, or something like that. Which would probably make me feel better about Mack, but kind of prove the "elite" part is self fulfilling and that Mack just doesn't belong with the likes of truly elite pass rushers (but still very good in other harder to measure areas... But also isn't being paid for his run D). But I do agree with your last point, which is what I suspected when I started this list in my reply to David. It's self-fulfilling and a selection bias issue that created that particular myth.

all the great ones that come to mind (and i get that this is sort of self-fulfilling as that's why their greatness comes to mind) did. peppers, strahan, white, LT to some extent, bruce smith Yea I think the self fulfilling prophecy is definitely going to be true here. Here's a list of all guys with 50+ Sacks through their first 6 seasons. 60 names, Mack is 21st on the list with 61.5. Perhaps ill do something later with this list and see how well they age (and maybe I can also compare to 60 great NFL QBs through 6 seasons and see how well they actually age). Link Bump from this. I analyzed this list a bit, and it really isn't as great as you'd like to see. Obviously its solely focused on sacks and Mack is definitely a great all around DE, but... The top 10 does fairly well over all, with guys like Reggie White, Demarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, Richard Dent, and Jared Allen. These guys all met the 50 sack threshold over their next 6 seasons, but still with a sack/game decline of about 20% (but with sack numbers that still are on par or better than Mack's first 6). However, Mack is 21st on that first list and from 11-20 you have names like Pat Swilling, Adre Tippett, Dexter Manley, Charles Haley, Elvis Dummervil, and Kevin Carter. Only Simeon Rice actually met the threshold for 50 sacks in his next 6 seasons of guys in that 11-20 range. And he's actually the only guy on the whole list to significantly improve. (one more guy, Lawrence Taylor technically was 20th on my list, but sacks weren't a stat until his second year, so he's obviously actually top 10 guy on the list, and he stayed steady over his next 6 seasons, with little to no decline in overall sack/game numbers). From 22-60 it definitely looks less like an elite list than a "pretty good list" Overall, taking out the current players who haven't accrued years 7-12 yet, there's 49 guys left from the list. Only 18 met the 50 sack threshold over the next 6 years and an additional 2 met the 50 sack threshold the whole rest of their career. So 29 of 49 top pass rushers didn't meet 50 sacks the whole rest of their career. Along with Simeon Rice, the 3 guys who saw minimally stronger sack/game numbers over their 7-12 seasons are Jason Taylor, Julius Peppers, and Chris Doleman. So you're basically hoping Mack is like a Julius Peppers or Jason Taylor career curve, or that his overall skill set makes up some for a drop off in pass rush numbers. I'm going to say "Myth Busted" on the "Elite Pass Rushers age well". ETA- On big name who barely missed the cutoff was Michael Strahan, who only had 47 sacks through his first 6 seasons, and still had age 29-32, 34, and 36 seasons of 9.5, 22.5, 11, 18.5, 11.5, and 9 sacks. But he's obviously a unicorn. There's 10 other guys who got 50+ sacks in years 7-12 after not doing so in years 1-6, but its definitely more of a "pretty good" list than elite list. Edit 2- I was actually initially using a sack/game started metric. Which maybe was a questionable metric to use, but you had a few guys who spent at least one, or many, seasons as pass rush specialist who didn't "start" (John Randle, Robert Mathis, Terrell Suggs). These guys all go into the "aging well" metric for pash rushers in that they all improved their sack/game numbers (along with Peppers, Taylor, and Rice). But if Mack is a better comparison through 6 seasons to guys like that rather than a LT, White, Dent, the list still is definitely not as strong, as the Peppers and Suggs types become exceptions and not rules.

Uh, it's a Tom Brady team, now. Still a valid heartwarming sentiment.

Yep, he really stood out in a bad way.

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15. true, but do you really think they'd be smart enough to pick Lawrence? 100% But maybe the Bears can just sign Stafford then and lock into some nice 7-9 and 9-7 seasons for a while.

I'd probably rather role the dice on them than let McCaskey potentially hire another Emery.

give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.

Bad. But not bad enough for a Trevor Lawrence tank.

This is about how Mitch looked against real defenses last year, except this isn't a real defense. Nick Foles for QB.

Bears stink.

I was reminded there is Bears football tomorrow and that just doesn't seem correct, even though I know TNF kicked off two days ago. I've never cared less about a football season. Nature is healing.

Let's go AK. Make it happen.

This is definitely one that gets thrown around but I have zero idea to its accuracy. all the great ones that come to mind (and i get that this is sort of self-fulfilling as that's why their greatness comes to mind) did. peppers, strahan, white, LT to some extent, bruce smith Yea I think the self fulfilling prophecy is definitely going to be true here. Here's a list of all guys with 50+ Sacks through their first 6 seasons. 60 names, Mack is 21st on the list with 61.5. Perhaps ill do something later with this list and see how well they age (and maybe I can also compare to 60 great NFL QBs through 6 seasons and see how well they actually age). Link

This is definitely one that gets thrown around but I have zero idea to its accuracy.

Sure why not. Players still matter by factor of 100.

That's.. a take.

Amukamara was cut the other day, was he picked up yet?

I don't know if I'd call 4.2m dirt cheap. But they probably won't claim him on waivers so it should be less than that as a FA.

But he'll block Felix Pie.

Urlacher is like the least surprising Chicago athlete to be like this anyways, but... Here's some more content!

The Chicago billboard skyline will never be the same if 'Lach is cancelled.

horsefeathers yea.

FTFY

Just out of curiosity, do we know what the positivity rates are at these campuses? I'm eager to see how U of I does with their seemingly aggressive testing/tracing plan.

Shoulda just signed Bortles and kept the pick and several millions of dollars. Dalton Well he wasn't available til later, but sure.