WrigleyField 22

Actually reading through this, I think it was a little more complex than "knows Hou will score". It would be dumb just to concede a score. But you do want to use your TOs in succession to stop after 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down. At 2 and 1 you give them the 1st and 10 and try to get 3 stops with 3 successive TOs. The 5 yards therefor is what might analytically be worth the extra time, with the expected point change being minimal I assume. It would have to be 2nd and 4th or less to make this a potentially desirable move I think. This game was a few tv's down from the game I was watching, but I was a bit blown away with how it ended, and I didn't even know about the purposeful 12th man on the field penalty. It was actually after that penalty that things got weird for me. The score was 30-29, Houston. Houston got into the endzone to make it a 7 point game. Instead of kicking the extra point, they went for 2. I'm thinking to myself, an 8 point lead is a guarantee of no worse than a tie with no time left. Why in the world are they going for two here? They don't make it, of course. Tennessee marches down the field and gets the TD and kicks the extra point to send it to overtime and then on to victory. An interim coach trying to go up 9 instead of a cozy 8 point lead which in turn loses you the game. Ouch. I mean, I get that the Titans have Derrick Henry and trying to keep him from running 2 yards is hard, but it only takes one goal line stand. And all it takes is one goal line conversion to ice the game. I don't hate it. Interim coaches ought to be aggressive like this. Why fall victim to all the awful cliché conservatism of NFL Head coaches, you're just a caretaker anyways. Go for 2 every time! Never punt on your opponents side of the field. Go for it on every 4th and 1. Go wild. Make football fun again.

i don't see a realistic way to build a cup contender with toews/kane/keith/seabrook still on the books. i think they had their chance to do the reboot over the couple years, but stan blew it. i just don't see them contending before kane is a FA and/or no longer elite, and i think he would get a hefty package right now. Its 3 years for each of those guys right? Is it not possible the tail end or the rebuild coincides with the end of those deals and then new team friendly deals negotiated as that freed up money goes elsewhere to supplement a youth movement?

Granted I only skimmed this but is this committing to an all out rebuild? Doesn't seem like they are going to be trading off Kane and Toews at this point based on the wording but i could be reading it wrong. I'm fairly ignorant to the typical team building of a NHL org. I know a guy like Toews has fallen off a lot, but a guy like Kane... does it make more sense that he sticks out a rebuild and becomes part of the next core, or is dismantling every last piece that can get value the better way to do it?

Actually reading through this, I think it was a little more complex than "knows Hou will score". It would be dumb just to concede a score. But you do want to use your TOs in succession to stop after 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down. At 2 and 1 you give them the 1st and 10 and try to get 3 stops with 3 successive TOs. The 5 yards therefor is what might analytically be worth the extra time, with the expected point change being minimal I assume. It would have to be 2nd and 4th or less to make this a potentially desirable move I think. Definitely worth the time in that situation. The likelihood of converting 2nd & 1 is extremely high. And they were already in very make-able FG range. So, the concession is the first down. If you are going to give up a 1st anyway, you might as well get it over with and save time when that is a factor. Yea, I think ultimately knowing the projected points at different yardages would be critical. For example is 2nd and 4 from a similar spot in the field equally as tough, or would you start burning your TOs in that spot and try for the stop. I know there is the occasional "they're gonna score, so preserve the clock" situations, but I don't think this was quite it. Funny "let them score story"; Senior year of HS we were down late 6 to 7 and on defense and the opposing team bust off a huge gain to get inside the 5 yard line. So the call came in to let them score so we would get the ball back with time to try and tie. At the snap 10 of 11 of us stood and just let them run it straight up the middle. Our middle LB, who was kind of dopey, was the only guy who didn't get the call and went and lit up their RB, causing a forced fumble, probably due to the fact the RB was so caught off guard as well. We recovered the fumble and then had a chance to outright win (which we unfortunately weren't able to do, but it was a pretty funny sequence of events anyways).

Actually reading through this, I think it was a little more complex than "knows Hou will score". It would be dumb just to concede a score. But you do want to use your TOs in succession to stop after 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down. At 2 and 1 you give them the 1st and 10 and try to get 3 stops with 3 successive TOs. The 5 yards therefor is what might analytically be worth the extra time, with the expected point change being minimal I assume. It would have to be 2nd and 4th or less to make this a potentially desirable move I think.

Or he's just kinda slow.

Telling though that the divisional round is where any team on that list tops out at as far as end of season results go. That's got to be wrong, because that 1998 Falcons team ended up making the Super Bowl (they also improved their efficiency over the season). Ah, I was reading as where they finished. That must be where they seeded to start the Playoffs.

Makes sense, at times, as many have mentioned, the offense appears capable, then goes back to not capable, how much of a factor is Nagy' play calling and how much the QB? I'd say maybe 80 - 20, at times he takes his foot off the gas, why? Go for the kill, if you can score 40 on a team do it because, they, sure as horsefeathers, will dump 40 on your ass. I go back and forth on this. Right now, I honestly think it's just personnel and Nagy is getting as much blood out of the stone as he can. Who are the *good* players on the offense? Allen Robinson and ...? I guess Jimmy Graham? David Montgomery is pretty average although I'm starting to doubt that tbh (he runs hard but isn't great at making reads and doesn't have the ability to break open plays), Mooney and Miller can be pretty average. The offensive line sucks, the RBs as a unit suck, and at the end of the day the only thing that really matters in this league: the QBs suck. For whatever my amateur take is, I'm pretty high on Mooney right now. He's definitely at least average and I think he has #1 WR potential.

Telling though that the divisional round is where any team on that list tops out at as far as end of season results go.

I listened to a podcast a few weeks back and forget the exact details.... but what I recall is basically what they are doing is the first test given that would trigger a positive isn’t the most accurate but faster and done daily, when a positive is triggered off of that test they do a test that takes longer (2-3 days iirc) but is more accurate to confirm or not. All the players wear some sort of tracking devices too and if they’ve been around a positive test person they have to take the more accurate test too before being cleared and isolate/quarantine until results come back. But they aren’t taking 2-3 days to announce the false positive was false. Is it a single sample that gets split into two tests, so its basically; D+0 - Take sample D+1 - Quick test ready D+2 - More accurate test ready Effectively duplicating the efforts/costs, but trying to catch stuff ASAP without otherwise slowing it down?

If I put on my optimism hat, Foles quality of D's faced has much better. So while they're statistically very close right now, Foles has looked better by the eye test and is still a better bet to perform better than Mitch. Where that means he ultimately falls, I don't know. Los Angeles is the only other opponent all year that's currently a top 10 passer rating defense team. So while the D will have some tests yet to come, the worst of the schedule is over for the O. Defensive passer rating DET - 91.3 (15th) NYG - 100.8 (23rd) ATL - 114.1 (league worst) IND - 71.7 (best in league) TB - 82 (4th best) CAR - 86.2 (6th best) ETA: Schedule ahead (Defense Passer Rating rank as of today) Los Angeles (10) New Orleans (29) Tennessee (21) Minnesota (x2) (30) Green Bay (x2) (26) Detroit (15) Houston (31) Jacksonville (27) Or roughly, an average passer rating against of about 102-103. So if Foles is even an average starting QB, a 100 passer rating the rest of the way should be the expectation.

Don't know why, but to me, 17 points seems to be Mitch' specialty, it's not true but, just seems about right every time Mitch starts. Checked the game logs, they've scored 17 points - 3 times, 16-5, 19-1 and 20-2 that's 11 of his 44 starts with only 16-20 points, didn't even want to look at 15,14,etc. was already depressing enough. *Scrapping the MIN game where he got injured and adjusting the ATL game to 10 points* Mean- 20.28 Median- 20 Mode- 24 (6 times) (next most common is 16, 4 times, and then several other games at 3 times [31, 17, 14, and 3 :(]) BUT, digging a little further and 1 of those 24 score games had a Def TD. So now we're more like; 24 (5x), 16 (4x), 17 (4x), 31 (3x), 14 (3x), 3 (3x)

Okay, maybe everyone just sucks so the Bears still suck then.

Do you mean the pass on 3rd down? I’ll have to go back but I think that throw to Robinson was good enough to be caught. I don’t want to be that team who can’t do anything but run three times to burn the other team’s TO’s. They’ve got to complete the passes but I like the pass call. I think they at least have to have a run threat and throw if they get a certain look. That play was a pure pass play from the formation. That's when you go with the 3 TE set you love so much and throw out of that against a D that's likely selling out against the run. Yea a little PA mini boot where the QB can at least slide down if the 1 read isn't there.

No way is this team good enough to win a game by 20.

Is Bridgewater gonna last this whole game? How many hits has he taken already?

I'm still not convinced.

I'd go Allen for sure.

I don't make either one of those deals. I'm very stubborn about giving up a RB. The amount of spread to receivers makes their points less than RB's, especially 3 down RB's. I'd hang on to Henry, Taylor and Mostert and see if you can upgrade at WR with one of Jones or Fournette. Once Fournette is healthy, they will be splitting time. Yea the more I sit on it I'm bearish dealing Henry at all, especially since I have a decent shot to be trading 12 weeks of play for 11, with the early covid-bye for Ten. Also I'm bearish on having two of my top players (Mahomes, Hill) on one team in case of any covid issues. And this morning I wake up to find that Ind shut down, so maybe I just consider myself lucky that I have a really good 4th and 5th RB and do the best I can with the WR streaming (and hope Cooper becomes Dalton's favorite target in DAL). So as a follow up, who do you like as my No 2 WR this week between Claypool, Landry, Shenault, Higgins?

So I'm trying to balance my RB/WR balance a bit. I have two offers on the table Derrick Henry straight up for Mike Evans Derrick Henry and Chase Claypool for Tyreke Hill and Tom Brady (I had initially offer Hill for Henry straight up and this was the counter, Brady is meh to me cuz I have Mahomes). I feel like a like Hill better and Claypool is selling high (I literally just got him on waivers this week). I'd be buying high on Evans who's been TD heavy to get points this year. I could go back to the Hill offer and try and get another backup WR/RB instead of Brady.. FYI my other RB are Jonathan Taylor, Raheem Mostert, Ronald Jones, and Leonard Fournette. My WR are Amari Cooper, Claypool, Jarvis Landry, Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins.

This is the way.

The 2-7* collapse will be epic *I'm assuming at least a couple games end up canceled before this horsefeathers show season is all said and done.

Whoa, just searched a video and the still image from the link gave me enough of an idea. Brutal.

I feel like there has to be a rule against it. At the very least I'm sure the current team could block, and perhaps it's an unwritten rule that you wouldn't even ask?

At least easier to social distant in baseball.