WrigleyField 22

Pace has been just good enough to not leave the cupboard bare behind him. And he's done a lot apparently to build up the infrastructure in the org. But yea, after 7 years, those little positives aren't enough to hang his hat on. Depending on #secretextension status his contract is up. It's not just sticking it out another year. It's likely a new 3-4 year commitment. If: 1. Pace did get a secret extension at some point and has a year or two left. 2. A new President is named and they decide to give Pace another year. 3. They jointly do the head coach search and bring in a big time coaching hire. Then I'd be *just okay* for him getting one more year and seeing what a new coach can do with a Pace built roster. If it flops badly in 22, New coach is elevated (unquestionably) to top of Football Ops food chain and builds out FO staff from head coach as head of football ops.

I mean, its the NY Post...so... Ah, quite old article too. Forgot Bruce Allen was an agent. Make that a negative mark for hiring an agent lol.

Did I miss a link? Which article specifically are you referencing?

I've long been a proponent of the fact that a guy like Pace as your top football guy is fine. The question is whether Phillips as their top non football guy who football reports into makes sense. It does sound like their questioning thst, but yea are ak undecided that they're now unprepared. Did something really happen in the past 365 days that changed Phillips mind about changing his role? So I'd be curious about what a guy like Armstrong's role actually looks like that broadly complements a primarily personnel/scout based GM at top of Football Ops. Something that is more than head of hiring and firing. Like DePodeata in CLE is all football ops based, but seems like hes broadly responsible for charting a course of a broad football ops expansion (heavily analytics driven). More I read and think about Armstrong and I'm wondering if it's just about him being well connected to coaches and execs and if the intent is just an alternative to a hiring consultant? Or would he have a real permanent job? I was skimming an article this morning with my morning coffee on why former agents would make better GMs, and the gist of the argument was that they understand 1) how to negotiate and not turn off players and agents and 2) how to work the salary cap, where as a scout-based GM is not that well versed in those areas. I can squint and see that, and it does make me wonder about the Foles, Graham, etc contracts Pace has put us into. Maybe that is all the McCaskeys are thinking about. I don't find that idea without merit. A couple thoughts though. There's two examples I can think of like that currently. Loomis in NO and Roseman in PHI. Neither was an agent, but both are the finance kind of GM, not scouts. Definitely in NO and maybe even at times in PHI, that GM pushed those personnel down to a HC with very broad personnel say. Philly kind of waffles a lot though, hence the Pederson power struggle and firing. Many people still seem to be suggesting a Pres Football-GM-HC structure. That is a structure I don't immediately see a strong alignment of power and incentives. Say whatever you will about the traditional President role, but being answerable to profit/revenue/valuation does lend itself to a seemingly decent balance of long term strategic organization building and on the field winning. Everyone's roles and incentives line up pretty nicely in that scenario with just the typical GM-HC power struggles. If Armstrong is just a untraditional GM that to me is different than an expectation than filling a traditional business/Pres role or filling some undetermined Football Ops role that isn't GM.

I even think the "best narrative" part is overrated. Nagy was a hot candidate and Frank Reich was leftovers after a coach backed out for Indy. Who has turned out better? But still, would be better if the President had been in the building to evaluate things for themself? At this point even a very brilliant outside mind can only know so much about what specifically has ailed the Bears. You would think that after last season, when Nagy and Pace convinced them to stay that they had to have, for at least a brief period of time, thought about the alternative to keeping them. This should not be a brand new concept to them as they have been asked about it by reporters in the past. I believe their answer was "Pace IS our football guy," which makes sense. Sooner or later there is a guy they trust to run the team and that person is Pace. All of this is to say that if they don't already know what they want to do they're idiots (like undecided voters). I've long been a proponent of the fact that a guy like Pace as your top football guy is fine. The question is whether Phillips as their top non football guy who football reports into makes sense. It does sound like they're questioning that, but yea are undecided and now they're unprepared. Did something really happen in the past 365 days that changed Phillips mind about changing his role? So I'd be curious about what a guy like Armstrong's role actually looks like that broadly complements a primarily personnel/scout based GM at top of Football Ops. Something that is more than head of hiring and firing. Like DePodeata in CLE is all football ops based, but seems like he's broadly responsible for charting a course of a broad football ops expansion (heavily analytics driven). And pretty much every other rorg football ops reports to an owner or primarily business Pres. The more that I read and think about Armstrong and I'm wondering if it's just about him being well connected to coaches and execs and if the intent is just an alternative to a hiring consultant? Or would he have an actual real permanent job other than sitting around waiting to make a hiring/firing decision and just generally being a sounding board?

This org is so backwards. The Kusinski logic above is the only reason I'm not pissed about it happening. But even that is such backwards logic. This brings me back to last year when there was a lot of talk about people wanting a full clean sweep from Phillips down. And I made the point then, if that was the goal, the best thing was actually to do President only last year. Then they could evaluate a full offseason and season of Pace and Nagy and then be in a position to be in the building, prepared for a new GM/HC search after that. Here we are with weeks to go until the end of the season and the org still contemplating a major org shift? But unlike last year there's basically no chance they can lame duck the HC/GM situation either. So now I am actually pissed, but for much more nuanced reasons. So they wind up with new leadership but kneecapped because others will have swooped in ahead of them to acquire the best people. I even think the "best narrative" part is overrated. Nagy was a hot candidate and Frank Reich was leftovers after a coach backed out for Indy. Who has turned out better? But still, would be better if the President had been in the building to evaluate things for themself? At this point even a very brilliant outside mind can only know so much about what specifically has ailed the Bears.

That will work, after the Seattle game What if they win, though? Seattle is a very winnable game. They aren't going to fire Nagy after a win, unless they fully admit that they told him he was out this week beforehand, and that's still a sore spot with this organization. This org is so backwards. The Kusinski logic above is the only reason I'm not pissed about it happening. But even that is such backwards logic. This brings me back to last year when there was a lot of talk about people wanting a full clean sweep from Phillips down. And I made the point then, if that was the goal, the best thing was actually to do President only last year. Then they could evaluate a full offseason and season of Pace and Nagy and then be in a position to be in the building, prepared for a new GM/HC search after that. Here we are with weeks to go until the end of the season and the org still contemplating a major org shift? But unlike last year there's basically no chance they can lame duck the HC/GM situation either. So now I am actually pissed, but for much more nuanced reasons.

Would be a Boxing Day firing if anything.

It's a big step up from Patch guy okay.

Rumors! https://twitter.com/peggykusinski/status/1473415211533090816?s=21 https://twitter.com/peggykusinski/status/1473421911711440902?s=21

What? You don't kick FGs down 17-3 in the 4th quarter. 17-3, you need 2 scores. 17-6, you need 2 scores. You have to play to minimize the number of times you need to score when the time is not on your side. Cutting the deficit to 11 with 8:40 to go and assuming you get the ball twice more when your defense is shutting the other team down and your offense is moving the ball isn’t the absurd choice you’re making it out to be. Even with that factored in, you're pretty close to the endzone. You need at least one TD and you're in a position to get it. 9 yards out. That's a great spot to get the one or two TDs you need.

Even more critical because a President of Football Operations is probably going to have more rope than the subsequent GM and coach that are hired. You are giving this person at least 5-7 years to figure things out. I mean most GMs get 5-7 years. There doesn't need to be a separate role called Pres that's different than the GM for that. But if whoever comes in needs 5 to 7 years they probably suck. Fields alone should make any job much easier. This isn't the tear down Pace embarked on. I generally don't think they need a separate guy as "Pres" over GM. Like most often people are talking about 1. A personnel type guy, so really just the same role you already expect from GM 2. Just like a clout type hire. Someone with no NFL FO experience or even semi related experience, but clout. If its a new business person to replace/supplement Phillips that makes sense. And they don't necessarily need a football background IMO. That person doesn't need a football specialist to just go out and hire a Uber talented GM or HC to lead football Ops. I mean every "Pres" role on a current NFL Tema has either solely or mostly a business background. Really there's only one who is arguably more football than business and that's Elways and its kind of a weird situation there. But even he has some business background from his post playing days, although most seem to think his role is semi-retirment advisory like anyways. No other team seems to complicate it so much. I know, McCaskeys and all are special, but... Maybe the closest setup is actually Cleveland where Depodesta is "Chief Strategy Officer" and appears to have no direct business responsibility. He did play college football (Harvard), but probably isn't considered by most a football guy since he was an MLB personnel guy for 20 years. They're also investing heavily into many areas of their org like analytics that he seems to oversee and it also seems clear he probably doesn't compete with the GM role, although he hired both GM and HC. TLDR: titles don't need to be so complex. They definitely need someone other than Phillips to support their HC or GM of they're a first time hire in that role. If one/both of those is an experienced hire, I don't even think they necessarily need that. For the right candidate just hand them the keys to the football empire and let them hire out and delegate appropriately.

Pace's parting gift is gonna be a franchise QB and two bookend tackles and the stans will never let us hear the end of it.

Convincingly at that. I really don't think I've ever seen a game like that.

Let the man free without having to go down I history with a losing record Bears.

Per pro football ref, they still have them falling outside the top 10 of Blitz rate. Not sure if theyre accurate or not. Good hurry% and decent pressure% too. Maybe pfr has trash stats, but this seems I'll-developed as a theory. Just outside the top 10 in blitz rate (11th) and well below average in QB knockdown % (27th) ...but their pressure rate is way higher than I thought so I guess I'm full of crap. I'll also just add in that the Vike's pace of play (6th) also helps with rate stats like sacks. And I don't know if this is true or not, but logically I feel like sack rate and knockdown rate is going to be a negative correlated. So I didn't really question that outlier. But a weird pass rush too. Very spread out. So the blitz aspect obviously is relevant. Maybe theres still a theory though, but certainly "pass rush sucks" seems like a tall claim to defend. Probably eaiser to defend something like, "average pass rush masquerading as an elite pass rush, leaving their coverage exposed" would be a more nuanced, but accurate critique?

It's nearly automatic that QBs have good stats like this against the Vikes. They have been the worst at defending against WR production in the entire league this year. That largely has to do with a complete lack of pass rush. which was not the case tonight. Take all of that for what you will. Yes. That's because they have to blitz a lot because their D line sucks, and because teams pass on them a lot because their pass D sucks. Per pro football ref, they still have them falling outside the top 10 of Blitz rate. Not sure if theyre accurate or not. Good hurry% and decent pressure% too. Maybe pfr has trash stats, but this seems I'll-developed as a theory.

Yeah I know DVOA and I think QBR take score/leverage into account and so they won't be too kind to him tonight. It was also a pretty crummy night with his legs. That said in terms of purely just standing in the pocket and letting it rip probably his best game. . It's nearly automatic that QBs have good stats like this against the Vikes. They have been the worst at defending against WR production in the entire league this year. That largely has to do with a complete lack of pass rush. which was not the case tonight. Take all of that for what you will. Complete lack of pass rush? Don't they lead the league in sacks? What am I missing (I mean I know sacks can be fluky, but that fluky?) Anyways, would prob like to see Fields non garbage time stats tonight.

Yea. I actually think it was Desai's best game Lots of Desai critics silenced tonight, although I shockingly still found one tonight on Twitter. He's a good coach. He'll end up with a long NFL career.

No. Definitely not.

Will be officially eliminated if that worth anything. One more week til the official interviewing thing and a short week. Does McCaskey keep holding on?

4D chess move IMO

Had to go re-watch that an I'm not sure "Graham open" is very accruate. He had a guy on top and beneath. By the time he leaked past the S open, Fields had two guys around him. I mean I guess he could have chucked if up for a jump ball early and it's prob better than the sack, but everything else was a disaster anyways.

Arturas Karnisovas for President of Football Operations IMO.

Nagy Offense is consistent and people just wanna throw that away, smh.