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Pace would be a very unconventional hire as a President. Every single person with a Pres title in the NFL has more business accumen than him. Even Elway who got to Pres from a football side has at least owned several businesses, including a minor league team. Even Wright in WAS has an MBA and brief mgmt consulting career. Not to mention both those franchises are/were also owned by legit business people and not heirs. All other Presidents are owners or came up exclusively through the business side. It's the NFL and its a money machine so I'm not gonna try and overstate the business job too much, but if that were really the case, I think it'd have to be under someone with more experience in business ops. Like Phillips sticking around as CEO for several years until Pace learns the business side. But I really don't think thats the case. I think he stays on the football ops side. And if Ted is leaving, he'll be replaced by someone else and perhaps it will be a Cubs like structure with Kenney. In that scenario, Pace is still a de facto GM, but you've erased report lines to the business side. I'm not opposed to that org structure but I dont think the other setup is necessarily wrong. Having a business person who is primarily responsible for revenue/profit should act as a good guiding check on a GM who is mostly graded on W-L. It's just Phillips isn't the right guy. Nor is McCaskey which is kind of the role he then serves in. So maybe it's a title bump for Pace, but that's really not a status quo change then, except perhaps it replaces some report lines. What would be interesting perhaps is McCaskey hiring someone else on the football ops side, either in an advisor role or strategy role, who Pace wouldn't report directly to, but would be a full time advisor to McCaskey and work with football ops on certain areas. However I think that's kind of a light job unless thst person has some other big overarching mission that isn't directly related to player acquisition. Like say someone tasked with enhancing analytics in the org. However since they supposedly are being consulted by Polian/Dungy I'll hold my breath on that.

Except it's sounding likely Pace is staying. I'm gonna root for Pace's next 7 to improve from his first 7, but I'm not confident in it. If Fields is a hit, it will obviously help him a lot. But he needs to stop with overpaying old FAs. He has some Harvard guy who brought with him from the Saints all those years ago why isn't he his Moneyball guy lol. It he can nail the HC hire, it will hopefully all work out.

Another good FA primer that's slightly less dated and has contract estimates for top 75. Obviously many of these guys will never hit the market. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-free-agent-rankings-free-agency Might need to revise some of my FA estimates. Might be a choice between a bigger money TE or WR. WR obviously makes more sense, but the TE market is potentially more interesting.

Part II Draft. I ran it on PFN's simulator and included some of their scouting notes in italics as well as my own thoughts. No good trade down opportunities, so I stuck to just the 5 picks, which I'm fine with for mock purposes. 39. David Bell, WR Purdue Just a beautiful alignment of value and need. As mentioned before, the WR FA class is now leaving something to lacking and Bell is a great prospect to add to the group of WR and TE I assembled above, as well as a hopeful long term block When evaluating wide receivers, one important thing is physicality, and Bell is as physical as they come. He puts this to good use in contested-catch situations, where he routinely comes down with the ball. There were several examples of him snatching the ball away from the defensive back. Additionally, his physicality helps him gain additional yardage, as he is rarely taken down on the first contact. 73. Chad Muma, LB Wyoming Learning about Muma and he sounds like a great fit next to Smith. 6'3" 242 and physical. Has some coverage skills (HS DB), but probably needs some work. But he can be a physical run stopping presence and free up Roquan to be a big play roaming LB in coverage and run. The Wyoming linebacker has excellent ability to diagnose against the run. He reads the play well and is rarely wrong-footed. Furthermore, he can fill gaps to prevent big running plays. Muma also has decent sideline-to-sideline range, enabling him to chase down ball carriers. As a tackler, Muma is a heavy hitter. You don’t want to meet him in the alley. But, more than this, he is efficient. In the games studied, he allowed very few broken tackles. 147. Cade Mays, OG Tennessee In reading up on him, I love that he is versatile (played 4/5 spots, but mostly RG). While it was great for the Bears to add two promising lineman and I'm hopeful to re-sign Daniels (UFA, 24) and have Mustipher (ERFA, 26) and Bars (RFA, 27) as young depth pieces, I'd love to add another young prospect to the mix. Value seemed to line up great here in the early 4th. That he could likely immediately contribute as a swing guy if he doesn't start is great at this stage in the draft. At 6’6″ and 325 pounds, he has the requisite size to play guard or tackle in the NFL. He also plays the game with nastiness, looking to put his man on the ground at any opportunity. Furthermore, he’s demonstrated strength in multiple ways. Mays is more than capable of taking a man out of the play with one powerful punch. The Tennessee guard also showcases impressive grip strength when he gets his hands on his man. Once he’s engaged, it’s rare to see his opponent break free from his vice-like grip. Mays also uses his lower body strength to anchor well when he gets set in pass protection....There is also an element of scheme versatility that will make Mays a valuable draft prospect. He spent time in a power-run offense at Georgia before transferring to a more zone-based scheme at Tennessee. With scheme fit a crucial part of the evaluation, Mays will increase his options at the next level. 149. Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB Alabama Big 6'1" CB. Are we noticing a physicality them yet? Doesn't sound like a day 1 contributor, and maybe rides the pine most of his rookie year. I don't believe he's declared either and he may well opt to return and re-enter the draft next year. Reading the profile, a switch to safety doesn't sound out of the question either. Maybe he can play some jumbo dime/nickel off the bat, with Jackson bumping down to the slot. The 6'1″, 192-pound cornerback often plays second fiddle to Josh Jobe in mock drafts, but I think Armour-Davis is actually the better prospect. Both are long coverage defenders, but Armour-Davis is more twitchy, fluid, and natural with his footwork. He's also less reckless from a physicality standpoint. If there is a knock on Armour-Davis, it's that he's not elite at producing on the ball. He has 2 interceptions and 2 pass deflections this year, with one of those picks coming last week against Tennessee. While it looks nice on the stat sheet, it was truly caused by a miscommunication between the QB and the WR. Armour-Davis can be more consistently proactive when in position. But already, he has the fluidity, short-range burst, and instincts to put himself in position more often than not. 188. Brian Robinson Jr., RB Alabama Not gonna abandon physicality at this point! At 6'1" 225, he adds a nice size element to the RB group and hopefully helps make Montgomery expandable with a projected 2023 RB duo of Herbert/Robinson. Listed at 6’1″, 225 pounds, Robinson has a dense, relatively high-cut frame. With this dense frame, Robinson shines as a physical back. He’s an aggressive finisher who uses his size to his advantage. He can lower his shoulder and grind out extra yards in short-yardage situations, and he can drag defenders with his steady leg drive through contact. Robinson’s footwork is exceptionally coordinated and perhaps the primary meshing agent for his game. The Alabama RB churns his feet as he approaches holes and can utilize shuffles, stutter steps, and gallops to adjust his angle and set up runs. He can also kick his feet up to avoid arm tackles in the backfield and has a natural feel for staying upright. Post draft projected 53 man QB: Fields, Foles RB: Montgomery, Herbert, Robinson Jr ® WR-X: FA $7M, Bell ® WR-Z: Mooney, FA Min Slot: FA $3M , Newsome TE-Y: Kmet, FA Min TE-U: FA $5M, Horsted LT: Jenkins, FA $3M LG: FA $5M, Bars C: Whitehair or $8M FA, Mustipher RG: Daniels, Mays ® RT: Borom DL: Blackson, Edwards, Tonga, FA $3M LB: Smith, $3M FA, Muma ®, Johnson EDGE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara FLEX: FA $3M, FA Min CB: Johnson, Armour-Davis ®, Tabor CB: FA $9M, Vildor NB: Graham Jr, Shelley FS: Jackson, Bush SS: FA Min, DHC Spec: Santos, O'Donnell, Scales

Yea, so I'm just treating this as my primer for an offseason thread. And while we wait to see what happens GM and HC wise, its not too early to start obsessively looking at FA/Draft plans. FA Strategy. (This was a good, though now slightly outdated primer https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-primer-top-players-at-every-position) I want the 2014-2017 Bears FA strategy back. Focus on younger, possibly ascending guys in that under-30 range. No old guys unless they're just filler 1 year pieces. Get some guys on Hicks-like deals, 2 year prove it deals along with a few longer deals on young ascending types. Guys will like the ability to get in FA market in 2024 with a new cap and that keeps the Bears cap situation flexible. A month ago I would have said splurge on a WR on a long deal, but the market has dried up with 2 major injuries to FA targets. So that has definitely shifted some of my thinking. They have an effective cap space of about $30M. But with some cuts and the ability to backload and restructure if necessary, my target is to spend about $50M in AAV in new money deals. That will still leave them plenty of money going into 2023 with only really one FA of note projected (once I extend Roquan below). Cuts: Cohen, Goldman, Trevathan. Designate Trevathan and Goldmas as post June 1. Offense Non priority positions: QB, RB. I'll probably just stick with Foles as the $3M isn't that big of a savings. Grab a young PS piece as 3rd QB. RB room needs a Williams type 3rd RB at minimum salary WR: With only Mooney under contract, they need to make some moves here. As noted, with the Godwin and Gallup injuries they lost 2 options to make a big splash. So I think they need to take the reclamation angle here and fill up on depth. a $2-3M target for a slot spot (maybe Grant as WR/PR?). Newsome as a 6th WR. Byrd/Goodwin or similar for a 5th WR spot at minimum again. And for the #2 spot next to Mooney, I'm targeting a $7M AAV. Will Fuller and Juju Smith-Schuster are two young injury reclamation candidates who should be ready week 1 (unlike Gallup/Godwin). Mike Williams (LAC) and Sammy Watkins (BAL) are two pretty known quantities that can fill in and catch some balls at a volume, but neither with great upside. And OBJ while not under 30 is an interesting option still. Of course they could also try for a guy like Gallup knowing they won't get him until later in the season, but sign to a 3-4 year incentive laden deal. Frankly, I'll hope to draft a WR in the 2nd/3rd, but you need contingencies and can't force it. TE: While I originally was going to more or less roll cheaply here, the changes to the WR market and the need to get weapons for Fields I think warrants a consideration. And its a decent FA class. While I think Goedert and Gesicki won't hit the market and Gronk doesn't fit my youth movement, there should be some good depth, and I'd target about $5M for a U-TE to complement Kmet and give Fields another weapon. Njoku (CLE) and Engram (NYG) are young reclamation projects. Tonyan is a somewhat interesting piece GB will struggle to afford. I'd also bring back Horsted and get a minimum vet backup for Kmet. OLine: I'm keeping Jenkins and Borom as the starting tackles and bring in a swing tackle vet for around $2-3M. Inside I want to replace Mustipher, but will bring him back as a ERFA and to be the 9th OL, backup C. RFA Tag Bars with the original round tender. If someone signs him, let him walk and replace with a Vet FA in the vein of Ifedi in 2020. For the last starting spot there's frankly lots of options. Daniels I would bring back on up to a 5/50 deal. While he hasn't quite played to that level yet, this is a projection deal. He'll be as young as some draft prospects and this deal could look cheap in years 3-5 with a coming cap explosion, even if he never becomes a pro-bowler. Whitehair is an iffy cut candidate to me. Despite the big dead cap number, he will be making $8M and looks to be on the decline. And it looks like a strong C/G class (although a couple names are off that above link already). That said, I'd target one spot at $5M which should get you a mid-range FA vet and upgrade to Mustipher. I'd also target $8M for a possible Whitehair replacement if I can get a younger, comparable player. If not, keep Whitehair for one year. This won't get them Jensen who's the top name, but a little older anyways. But maybe a guy like Allen from the Rams, who has a 81.1 PFF grade this year and is only 27. Guards include Williams (DAL), Corbett (LAR), Glowinski (IND) and either Whitehair or Daniels could be given serious consideration to bump back to C. Another vet FA G to fill out the 8th spot. Defense DL: Honestly this will go from a strong suit to a weakness, but its a bad FA class and I'm gonna place hope that whichever scout has helped us find good value DL sticks around. I'm targeting one $3M vet FA signing and possibly two(I'll explain below) LB: Need something next to Smith, but not gonna break the bank. Another $3M vet FA slot here. Fill out some backups at vet min and they have the UDFA from last year Johnson as depth. I extend Roquan now. Probably a 80/4 extension (for a total of ~5/90). Quibble with that if you want, but I'm wiling to take that bet, especially with a rising cap. Assume it will set a high water mark for ILB contracts. EDGE: Its set here. Roll back with Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara (all under contract) FLEX: Depending on if they stick with a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, I think they can do either, but you are looking at the difference of an extra LB or extra DL basically. Another $3M spot here for a rotational LB or DL. CB: This needs to be the other big splash area. I don't think they can justify a top 5 type CB, but a healthy $9M multi year contract should get them a starter quality guy. Darious Williams (LAR), JC Jackson (NE), Steven Nelson (PHI) are among the options. Graham penciled in as NB and maybe bring in an extra vet FA min or two. They can RFA tag Tebor and still have Shelley and Vildor under contract as well for depth. S: Jackson has done enough to return. The S FA class looks deep, so I'd wait out the market and try and find a replacement level average starter with the vet minimum exception. Might as well pencil in DHC and Bush to once again return as backups at the minimum. This ended up a squeeze spot for me based on the market depth. Though I wouldn't mind seeing DHC given a real chance either. Bring back O'Donnell and Scales for specialists. Pre-draft that gives me a tentative 53 man roster like this. I played around with estimating these values on Over the cap calculator and still should have at least $50M in effective projected 2023 cap space, assuming those $3M are mostly one year deals (and that's without considering any additional cuts). And hopefully with many less spots to fill and only one major FA (Montgomery). So 2023 would be the year they can splash big for impact players to finish filling out a contender roster (Fields has to hit) QB: Fields, Foles RB: Montgomery, Herbert, FA Min WR-X: FA $7M, FA Min WR-Z: Mooney, FA Min Slot: FA $3M , Newsome TE-Y: Kmet, FA Min TE-U: FA $5M, Horsted LT: Jenkins, FA $3M LG: FA $5M, Bars C: Whitehair or $8M FA, Mustipher RG: Daniels, FA Min RT: Borom DL: Blackson, Edwards, Tonga, FA $3M LB: Smith, $3M FA, Johnson, FA Min EDGE: Mack, Quinn, Gipson, Attaochu, Kamara FLEX: FA $3M, FA Min, FA Min CB: Johnson, Tabor CB: FA $9M, Vildor NB: Graham Jr, Shelley FS: Jackson, Bush SS: FA Min, DHC Spec: Santos, O'Donnell, Scales Will do a separate draft post.

Come on, this is basically the Pre-Offseason thread. Okay they play the Vikings. I'll cheer for them to win since its always fun to beat a division rival and they can't finish in 2nd and get the harder schedule. A loss will bump up 4 of their picks, so if it happens it happens. If Fields plays, I hope he stays uninjured primarily and secondarily, I hope he throws for 400+ yards. No I'm not worried about him saving Nagy's job. I've been intending to take some time off work to re-set and I think Black Monday and Tuesday are going to be great days to do that since I'll be glued to media when the Bears announce their firings and maybe restructure?

Why does Michael still have a desk. Michael, Ed, George, they are all the same people really. Soon there will be Ryan McCaskey and he will look suspiciously like Ryan Pace Ryan Pace being elevated to co-owner after eloping with Ginny.

Doesn't say as GM......how well can he handle a push broom? He prolly leg-chained himself to Michaels desk Why does Michael still have a desk.

Definitely not a fan. I think he's a floor raiser as a coach...possibly an immediate floor raiser. But I think he has to have a strong dedicated OC to run a good offense. Developing Fields is the most important thing for this org, and I'm not sure after watching Jim at Michigan for 7 years, he's the guy to get the most out of him. So he'd have to hire a great OC/QB coach and let him run wild. I know he's had success with QBs like Luck in the past, but his offensive numbers with the 49ers were rather pedestrian. Exactly. Mediocre offense at SF. Hasn't developed any of his handpicked QBs at Michigan. And his passing offenses have routinely finished in the 60s in FBS, despite the ability to recruit at a top 20 level. I agree with the floor raising. It's very possible Harbaugh could come in and win 10 games per season consistently. Harbaugh can probably keep bringing in defense and linemen to make his offense and defense do just enough to win a bunch of games. He may even win a ring. But I don't want 10-win seasons and maybe a ring, as weird as that sounds. I want GB, NE, PIT, IND 2000s success. I want a team that is a credible contender every year because it has a top 5-10 QB in the game and a strong overall roster and system to support him. I want the Steelers 18 straight years without a losing season. I want the only thing our rival can say about the Bears is that they only got 1 ring in 8 NFCC appearances with elite QB play. I don't want a guy who's shown his best case is about the same thing that Lovie Smith did. In the vain of just poaching all the top orgs: GM: Kahn (Pitt). He's more a contract guy not a scout so need a great VP of Player Personnel Asst GM/ Player Personnel: Elliot Wolf (GB, NE) Head Coach: Greg Roman (Balt) President: Someone from an org who's recently done a bad ass new stadium recently Let's go.

I'd be pretty upset with that hire. I can't imagine a less progressive move, digging into Bears history for a former player from a bygone era. Definitely not a fan. I think he's a floor raiser as a coach...possibly an immediate floor raiser. But I think he has to have a strong dedicated OC to run a good offense. Developing Fields is the most important thing for this org, and I'm not sure after watching Jim at Michigan for 7 years, he's the guy to get the most out of him. So he'd have to hire a great OC/QB coach and let him run wild. I know he's had success with QBs like Luck in the past, but his offensive numbers with the 49ers were rather pedestrian. Harbaugh/Brady/Fangio. Let's go. Actually Brady should probably the top OC candidate no matter who is HC, unless they get someone with ties to Shanahan/McVay tree.

The overpay to keep him will probably be cheap in a few years through.

Pelicans wasn't awful, even though they obviously should have just totally completed the NBA name shuffle and given them Jazz back. But yea, Admirals (or Commanders still being rumored), is very lame and feels like "Hollywood movie that couldn't get NFL rights" generic. Guardians-esque Edit- Also, due to the shuffle, Pelicans upgraded the NBA from Bobcats with an accompanying terrible logo. So definite upgrade from that perspective. Commanders/Admirals isn't even better than Football Team it's replacing.

Tankathon site has a SOS tracker and has the Bulls remaining schedule as 12th toughest. Probably should weight it a little since their toughest games are against a division rival and are therefor arguably more important. But Milwaukee has the number 1 toughest SOS remaining. And using the division logic, same issue. https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Eh. The dream is largely over. Last I checked I was in 40th, and I probably need 80 points combied from Lazard and Najee to win the million. A chess player I know of through the interwebs is prob going to take it down. Well not 80, but pretty good from Lazard and Harris. Where did you end at?

I can't see how they can let him go. I love to see what difference he and Mack can do when they are both healthy. Doesn't he have one more year? Or will it just be the franchise tag? He's signed through 2024, but all the guarantees are paid out. I could see him traded, especially if there's a clean FO sweep.

How many games were there this year when you felt the Bears had a talent advantage over the opponent? Yesterday and...Detroit? How many times did you feel they were at a talent disadvantage? This yeah was about as standard as they come for the Bears, as far as W/L goes. Basically, their record was pretty predictable on paper. Clearly better teams- GBx 2, Tampa, Arizona, LA Rams all losses, all by double digits Clearly worse teams- Detroit x 2, NYG all wins, all by double digits except the one on short rest with the backup QB starting They beat a really good Cincy team before they became a really good team. And they lost against a really good Cleveland team before they became a mediocre team. Other than that, Raiders, Steelers, Ravens (with backup QB), Vikings and Seahawks they went 2-3 against the teams that are similar levels of mediocre as they are, and the games for the most part were really close. Probably beat the Vikings and their backup QB to go to a perfectly mediocre 3-3 against mediocre competition. I believe the Bears are the same 8-8 team they have been the previous 2 years, but they just had a tougher schedule. Yea I agree. They've been roughly a mid-range talent team since like 2017, with mostly schedule variance explaining the rest. Pace has built average teams. He hasn't done so particularly efficiently either. But he's not like totally lost either. Nagy is just bad. Hasn't put together a single impressive offense in 4 years. Team constantly is under prepared and ill disciplined too. Only thing he does well is "culture".

I'll be just as upset if they keep Pace. I want a clean sweep. But I can't share that sentiment. Nagy is such a larger issue to me than Pace. If the keep Pace I'll groan, roll my eyes and then see what he does. Nagy stays, I riot.

Isn't it sad that's a real possibility? I do not think it is a real possibility. The only possible chance is if Fields has a HOF performance. I said going into the season I thought there wasn't a playoffs or you're fired situation here. What they needed to do was make the offense look capable. Losing games 34-29 wasn't going to doom them, necessarily. But the offense has been crap all season, including in that game yesterday that was won by Glennon's incompetence. If they hang a 50-burger on the Vikings and Fields throws for 300+ yards, runs for a bunch with no turnovers, I could see a situation where George looks at the progress as justification to allow Nagy one more season. But his contract is up after next season, and if he hasn't already signed a cheap extension in secret, they aren't going to bring him back in a lame duck situation. The only other scenario is if they do hire a guy like Trace Armstrong as the big boss, and he decides to take a year to evaluate things, and chooses not to fire his client right away. That would be a strange choice. I think this post is on the money. Pace is another story. He may well stick around. Feels like a toss up at this point.

What's cool about Eddie Jak refusing to tackle? Let's Quinn get home for the record breaking sack.

Wow this is kind of cool.

Cardinals-9ers would be a pretty big difference. Saints-Falcons could go either way.

I wanna hear what this actually was. It's always been skirted around and Pace subsequently made a bunch of big changes in the org. What did Ballard say that they couldn't do otherwise? I know at least a few bloggers have felt it was just Ballard sour grapes and based on what Pace has done I'm skeptical that the issue was unwillingness to change.

Still gonna get a decent return on that $25 entry right?

I keep seeing takes that Matt Nagy is such a good guy, and maybe he is outside of football (nice of him to make a donation to JDs kids charity this week), but horsefeathers like this dispels that he’s classy. There is no benefit to Peters playing. Sure winning is fine but best for the team is clearly not playing a 39 year old with no future on the team over your highly drafted rookie. The classy thing to do would be to do what’s actually best for the team even if you aren’t going to be around. But hey now Nagy will finish his Bears career with a record over .500 so that’s something to brag about when he’s the QB coach of the Texans next year He may give off the appearance of classy to the untrained eye but Matt Nagy is not classy when it comes to football. Pretty sure if you ask people within the game, they'd say it's a classy move to give the HOF vet a chance to finish out his career on the field. It will also potentially help you sign guys in the future, so it's not all bad. All that said, I would have played Jenkins. Yea I think the Ifedi over Borom choice was a lot more egregious. Borom is basically already better than Ifedi. Ifedi has just shown up his teammate. It seemed forced as part of a dumb revenge game captain decision. Peters over Jenkins is still annoying as a fan, but I get it more. And neither decision is gonna be a make or break thing for those guys into next year.