WrigleyField 22

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/07/nfl-head-coach-hiring-preview-week-18 Eberflus is a name that keeps quietly coming up. Also, been whispers out there that the Bears are interested in Colts Asst. GM, Ed Dodds. I've been mostly focused on offensive coaches for the Bears, but a Dodds/Eberflus combo could be pretty sweet. The Colts have some interesting guys on their staff that combo could bring along with them. But reading between the lines here, I'm not sure how I feel in general. I just want the organization to do it's due diligence. Don't go into a HC search thinking "need a strong leader". It's the same line of thinking that has made every other hire they've done a mess. "Lead of men" is akin to "QB developer" which led to Nagy; is akin to "experienced HC" which led to John Fox; is akin to "outside the box" which led to Trestman; is akin to "hot young coordinator" which led to Jauron, Lovie, and Ditka. Them going into the search looking for a certain type of coach, will almost certainly lead to them picking the wrong coach, because they have already shrank the candidate pool. Yea, I am warming to Eberflus, but I also agree that it doesn't feel like the thought process here is good. That said, even if the "Leader" aspect is being over-thought it at least isn't immediately cutting your pool in half like a QB focused coach search did. So it's something? I also kind of explicitly don't want HC/GM from the same spot. Granted both of those guys have been around at different stops before Indy, so that's something. But I really want a variety of backgrounds and not just try to replicate one org. I don't know how close Polian/Dungy are to Indy still but those two are the supposed consultants and a HC/GM name are surfacing from Indy and its also where the presumed runner up to Pace ended up and I feel like, Ah horsefeathers it, theres no actual process is there?

Okay, yea Bears are cheap

isn't that rule specifically about NFL assistants? It would have nothing to do with Harbaugh. Yea the tampering rule wouldn't have applied to Harbaugh. At most it would be a optics thing though. Maybe the Bears are gonna be too cheap for Harbaugh. We know Davis will shell out a 100M contract because he did once already. Are the Bears ready to compete at the top HC salaries or is thay why reports are trickling in again of first timers like Eberflus and Mayo?

Sorry I don't necessarily see a GM role, but not down a few rungs either. Opportunity is obviously key. Ireland as an example could be his replacement here if he's dismissed and then theres a nice cushy job in his old org. Obviously stars may not align that quickly. I could definitely see a senior consultant role for a year and then back into a director level roll shortly after. Most GMs don't get a second GM chance, but would be surprised if he's not at the director level for a long time.

I don't think Pace would go down a few rungs for long at least. He'd be a player personnel director pretty quickly I think. And if his contract is up it isn't exactly like he wouldn't wanna shop for that opportunity. I feel like something like that only happens for someone way more career advanced and possibly only for someone beloved, like Elway in Denver, who by all accounts is basically semi retired and advisory only.

I don't care how many moves it counts as, it's pretty silly to the degree fans parse out individual moves instead of the big picture. But fwiw if I magically became an NFL owner I'd definitely want my GM to feel secure they won't be fired for trying to find a QB and failing. The idea that GMs should get one swing at a QB and that basically seals their fate is one of the most utterly brain dead sports takes in existence. I was mainly joking, but you're right that he shouldn't be judged on one move. But just at the qb position alone, he: - Chose to let Cutler go and sign Glennon - draft Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson - Trade for Foles contract instead of developing Trubisky further - Trade for Foles over signing Dalton - Give up on Trubisky - Signing Dalton to play over Foles just one year later - Spend big capital to trade up for Fields, but then have a half assed plan to develop him That's too say nothing of the fact that he's already had the chance to hire two head coaches and much more. And with all that QB failing all his other moves start to look better considering the record. But I've definitely seen enough big picture failures that I'm just not convinced there is improvement is in store. And thats the only possible way to argue for him. I don't care if he hit it out of the park with the 2021 draft pick (way too early to say, but I've seen that argument from some supporters), people gotta figure out what about Pace is gonna lead to improvement from what he's done. But I could be wrong too. If Fields is awesome he's gonna cover up a lot of mistakes anyways, whether it's Pace's or his successor.

Stick route/flat. 60% of the time it works all the time. Don't need to adjust for opponent.

One of the rare "Football Pres" takes that at least makes some sense: Unless I'm way off on what Pace's actual strengths are, if he's being kept, it should be in the GM seat, and the "Pres" doing more org building. Maybe with the Halas Hall stuff and the enhancements that Pace has done they do think his strength is more in org building, but I'm extremely skeptical the guy who's spent his whole career in player personnel can focus on the broader picture stuff and hand off the team building aspect.

I know the story is Pace didn't think one of the 1st round QBs was going to be available coming into the draft, but he clearly was looking to pull the trigger if the opportunity presented itself. Even if he doesn't get a 1st round QB is he looking to take Davis Mills or Mond later in the draft? If so, is it a smart use of resources to have a QB room of Dalton, Foles, Rookie QB? Foles was not great last season but even when accounting for perception at the time is Dalton really that big of an upgrade over Foles? Enough to sacrifice other areas of the roster? Could that $10m have gone to other areas of the roster and provided a bigger upgrade than Dalton over Foles? Just throwing hypotheticals out there. In reality, George forced Pace and Nagy back for a win now season and they scrambled to make sure they got any marginal upgrade they could at QB even if it meant investing $26m in 3 QBs when they probably get similar production with $17m or so. I personally would have brought in another vet yea. It just would have been like Brissett or Taylor at like half the price. I mean I don't know to what degree Pace convinced George they were still in a competitive window, but if in 2021 you believed in Paces ability to lead a rebuild many things would have looked differently. Obviously they weren't gonna full tank with what they had. And any non first round QB would be huge flyer territory.

Does the Mike Glennon / trading up for Trubisky over Mahomes/Watson count as one more or two? I don't care how many moves it counts as, it's pretty silly to the degree fans parse out individual moves instead of the big picture. But fwiw if I magically became an NFL owner I'd definitely want my GM to feel secure they won't be fired for trying to find a QB and failing. The idea that GMs should get one swing at a QB and that basically seals their fate is one of the most utterly brain dead sports takes in existence.

I mean Andy Dalton types are realistically the best you can do if you're in the QB wilderness. Although he definitely overpaid. That's not a firable offense. Can we stop with the single moves as firable offense takes? To be fair single moves shouldn't be savable either.

Alright, with the Ryan Pace rumor mill picking up, I'm going to post a little about some general FO ideas and thoughts. As far as any possible President rumors go, I kind of hope its true Phillips is stepping away or down or retiring or whatever. I don't put a lot of stock into the "President football ops" idea and think the traditional President role is fine as a setup. That said, if there's been no leak other than the possible Armstrong rumor, I kind of hope they just have an in house candidate ready to go to lead the HC/GM search. Cliff Stein has always made the most sense to me as a possible internal candidate. So unless a new outside Pres is already a done deal and ready to go, I hope they don't have to waste time doing a Pres search, then GM, then HC. And I also really don't want Phillips running the search if he's got a foot out the door either. So I'm gonna go and place Cliff Stein as my new President and call Phillips the CEO of the team and he can do the stadium stuff. Has experience on both football ops side as the former contract negotiator. Has a legal background and has been serving as Legal Counsel and doing other stuff on the business ops side the past 7 years. Onto football ops. I've generally leaned more towards thinking the Bears really should strongly consider a FO structure with the HC at the top. I just think based on McCaskey's weakness, putting the HC on top kind of simplifies the evaluation process. And its a proven method with places like NE and SEA having that setup. Further, this article gave me some inspiration today. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/1/6/22869889/nfl-coaching-carousel-avoid-mistakes I'm a bit of a cap nerd as it is, but I have also been intrigued by putting more of the contract type at top and not the scouting type. Even though almost every team has gone the scout angle these days. But I kind of like the contract guy at the GM spot and think it pairs nicely with the idea of the strong HC at or near the top of the FO structure. I'm kind of thinking of New Orleans where Loomis is still the top guy, but he isn't a scouting/personnel guy. So Payton is probably the biggest voice when it comes to roster management, but without necessarily with the full day to day responsibility of overseeing the entire scouting department and football ops. https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/12/31/future-general-managers-week-17-preview Good, exhaustive list of GM candidates here. But I'm skipping past all the scouting types, until I get to the operations types; Honestly all sound like they have intriguing traits. And I'll add Pat Moriarty, who comes from a great organization in the Ravens (bio here: https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/front-office-roster/pat-moriarty). I think I'd strike Brinker and Pastoors, and as much as it would be awesome for the Bears to hire the first female GM, I'll strike Raiche too. So give me Kwesi, Khan, Greenburg, or Moriatry. I'm gonna go Kwesi since he sounds like the biggest nerd from some of the stuff I've ready and the most likely to drive analytics in the org. As has been discussed in this past page, I'm warming to the idea of McDaniels. Really the question is if he can build a staff after possibly burning some bridges with the Indy situation. If he still commands respect and get a good staff, I do think he makes sense and I'm willing to take the risk. But Harbaugh is still super intriguing. For first time candidates, I'm kind of coming on late to Eberflus from Indy (DC) but still like the hot OC names like Leftwich, Roman, Daboll. Todd Bowles, Dennis Allen, and Raheem Morris are all D side retreads I find interesting to varying degree. But I am really leaning towards a retread coach. I think with the org structure I've targeted too it just makes sense to have someone with experience in the role and understands all the intricacies of HC and roster management. Underneath Kwesi on the Football Ops side, I think it does also give you an opportunity to create a really attractive Assistant GM/Player Personnel role. Most team's player personnel guy is going to be effectively the number 2 scout in the org behind GM. In this setup, they may be the number 2 FO role, but they have the biggest scouting voice and can really shape that dept. Retaining Champ Kelly still intrigues me from the bits I've read about him. Coordinators. Ken Dorsey was mentioned with the Frazier rumors, but he'd still make sense. Daboll runs the same E-P system as NE. And Dorsey must get some credit for Allen's rise as he has been QB coach. Only question is since Daboll is a hot candidate, does Dorsey bide his time? Defense, I'm actually going to pull some inspiration from McDaniel's staff he started to build in Indy. He hired Eberflus out of Dallas instead of looking towards NE background. How about the guy who coordinated the Legion of Boom, spent a couple years in DAL under Marinelli and now was the DB coach this year for a Saints D that made two of the all time great QBs look mortal. Kris Richard. Special Teams. I don't know. I'm just gonna go org poaching and say TJ Weist, who is the asst special teams coach in Baltimore the past few years Hopefully he's learned a few things in one of the consistently top ST orgs around. New Structure (after all my rambling) CEO: Ted Phillips (go build a stadium and stay there) President: Cliff Stein General Manager: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah Head Coach: Josh McDaniels Assistant GM and Dir Player Personnel: Champ Kelly Offensive Coordinator: Ken Dorsey Defensive Coordinaor: Kris Richard Special Team Coordinator: TJ Weist

LFG

Here's the Grantland article that talks about how the Patriots use the E-P system to have a simple, yet flexible offense. http://grantland.com/features/how-terminology-erhardt-perkins-system-helped-maintain-dominance-tom-brady-patriots/

McDaniels is my first choice. The potential upside for Fields is just too great to ignore. We need a coach where we can say: "if he can't get Fields to star status then no one could." That's McDaniels. The ideal offense for me is maximizing Justin Fields' abilities. Not a groundbreaking analysis, I know. But they say Fields can't read the field fast enough, then build an offense that protects him long enough to make every read. He also likes (and is good at) throwing the ball down the field. That should be the primary design of the offense. I've often compared Fields' play style to Deshaun Watson. So basically, I envision a passing offense that at it's height is similar to the Texans from 2020. That was Bill O'Brien's offense, even after he was fired. Bill O'Brien is from the same coaching tree as McDaniels. That being said, just in case I am wrong about what offense would best maximize Fields....I want an offense that is adaptable to its personnel, talent and adapts to its opponents. McDaniels also checks that box for me. He has had obviously TONS of success. First started with small WRs, who weren't really #1 guys. Then he had success with a HOF #1 in Moss. He's had offenses where his top receiving options came from small, white slot guys; 1 big burly TE, 2 TE sets, speedy WRs, small WRs, no named WRs, he's had a RB lead this offense in receiving. And the entire time, the Pats have been pretty consistent in producing an above average OL and running game with constantly changing pieces on the OL and a lot of the time with RB by committee. Even his much maligned time in Denver featured 2 top 15 teams in total offense with the likes of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton. There's plenty of guys I think can run the offense that I think will maximize Fields. But there's not many that have shown they can adapt if their offense isn't working as planned. Obviously, McDaniels is not the perfect candidate or he'd still be in Denver or Indy. But if he's willing to try his hand at HC again, there's not many I'd rather have outside of the longshots. I'd have to find the articles again, but the Patriots have always used the Erhardt-Perkins coaching scheme. I guess what makes it unique is that it's verbiage is totally based on concepts of design so it's extremely adaptable to changes in personnel. So yea, anyone using this scheme, (which includes Daboll) should be very flexible because they're effectively implementing a language, not a technical strategy. Absent that I've always loved the Shannahan tree. And think Fields would do well in it.

Probably a completely worthless thing to post, but for whatever it’s worth, my friend lives in Lake Forest and claims to have seen Pace today and said he was visibly angry. I'll take it! It's the equivalent of seeing Theo at Starbucks or whatever. I hope. Waiting for confirmation of Harbaugh in line at a Portillos Drive through.

I basically agree with Smitz. Bowles and Roman prob round out my top 4.

What has DBB called before?

Told yall this would be just the pre-offseason thread.

Yea, obviously I wont doubt the actions of the buying entity to make money, but if they were really on course to start turning a profit by 2023, maybe that's enough to not dramatically change pricing and such. Hell I'd probably consider some combo deal even if it meant meeting in the middle of NYT and Athletic separately, but getting both.

Could have sworn I saw speculation recently that Athletic was hanging on by a thread and could fail soon. Hopefully NYT backing keeps them in business and doesn't change thr model much.

Just praying he doesn't shred his knee or something. And that was not at all my concern the past 17 weeks, but of course it would happen in a meaningless week 18 game cuz #OnlyMyTeams

This is what the people demanding input from Alex Brown, Olin Kreutz, etc. are talking about - some football players who are in tune enough with the game to meet with McCaskey and co regularly and break down what they're seeing for him. Like the Packers game when Jenkins came in and Nagy/Lazor went empty backfield 5-man protection - it makes no sense! Those guys could explain to George that decisions like this hurt the team in the game, in Jenkins' development, etc. I mean, if it's coach oversight that 100% needs to come from the FO (unless you have a structure where the HC sits at the top of thr chain). If Pace cant/won't do that he's just not the right guy. I'd prefer something in more of a strategic role if they went that route, again going back to analytics implementation as an idea. If it's just a senior advisory role it really is just a sounding board for McCaskey. And it doesn't have to be a former Bear. That's just PR.

I wish I could give you more than one heart for these - thank you - great reads If I was hiring the next coach I would expect physicality to be part of their answer when I asked what the team will look like. The kind of team that other teams groan when it's time to line up opposite because there's an ass beating coming win or lose. A Titans style offense would work really well for Fields. Fix the line, let draft pick RBs take the easy yards and set up the pass. Fields could be a beast throwing deep off PA or taking off against man coverage. Thanks. Funny I didnt necessarily go in with a physicality mindset, but if I'm honest I do really value that in draft profiles. I still think there has to be a fair amount of projection and a guy has to have legit athletic tools, and there could be situation where tools outshine a lack of physicality, but the board just really ended lining up in a way I liked. And yea, especially with a questionable WR FA class, a physical style O is probably the Bears best bet in 2022, at least. Still want to find some speed because they suck at separation and Fields needs that, though I wonder how much of that struggle is scheme. Certainly they added some speed pieces and it didn't create extra separation this year. After re-reviewing the PFF FA estimates and contemplating comp pick scenarios I'd probably revise all those $3M FA signings to ~1.8M which would avoid netting comp losses and maybe get them a late comp pick or two in 2023. That also frees up some extra TE or WR money that I definitely underallocated upon review. But still wanna limit any "above min" spending to about 50M AAV in new money (not counting Smith extension).

yep i think that's what happens. if the most recent reports are true, it seems like George is conflicted about Pace, really likes him but knows the organizational structure needs an overhaul. In the warped mind of Bears ownership this seems like a win-win. They keep Pace for big picture stuff, but hire a fresh mind for day to day GMing. I do think that this limits the quality of GM we can hire as Pace will likely still be seen as running the show (unless they make it clear he has little influence on day-to-day) I think it 100% limits the next GM. Only possible way is if it's an internal move, but even them I'm not convinced that guy wouldn't be able to be blocked from another teams GM job based on NFL tampering/hiring rules.