WrigleyField 22

Yea I think I mentioned before, but in my opinion, Pace's OL failings were as much about depth as it was the starting 5. It's not a promising group. And I still hate the idea they may be narrowed into like two positions among their top 3 picks.

I don't really disagree with you much, but if Fields gets killed this year because the O-Line is so bad and turns into David Carr then you've set yourself back another 3-4 years. It's certainly a fine line to walk. I mean, yeah that would be bad. But that's more of a coaching issue. The Bears OL wasn't any less talented than many OLs around the league. The problem was the combination of mediocre talent along with obvious pass downs and pass formations allowing pass rushers to tee off. One thing Getsy has said is that he wants the pass game to look like the run game. RPOs, playactions, extra TEs, staying out of obvious pass down and distances will help. It's not an ideal situation, but kind of is what it is at this point. Jenkins has gotta be good. Patrick has got to be a significant upgrade at C. The early draft picks have got to hit. At this point, got nothing else but to hope Poles/Cunningham (2 former offensive linemen) really know their stuff. I'm counting on scheme upgrades, but why wouldn't you want both talent upgrades and scheme improvement? And even if they hit on 38 or 49 for a RG, it's still a very thin depth chart. Would be much preferred if they have a reasonable answer for RG and even swing tackle or swing IOL before draft. Maybe in next 3.5 weeks there will be movement on that front. While some of the younger more high ceiling names are long gone there are some stop gaps. Either that or really banking on post June 1 cuts. But they won't be the only team watching the waiver wire at that stage.

Problem isn't Poles, it's your expectations. Poles wasn't going to come in and build this team into a contender with 5 draft picks, little cap room, and like 23 players under contract. What's the threshold for you to be ok with what he's done? Did you want to pay Christian Kirk 19M per season? Did you want to trade 1 or more of the limited draft picks just for the right to pay a WR 20-25Mil/year (Cooper, Hill, Adams)? He tried to add Bates, but the deal was matched? They were in on other linemen who got paid more than they were willing to pay, and probably went to teams closer to winning than the Bears are. I would have liked a stud lineman or proven WR as much as anyone else, but the only reason why you are disappointed is because he didn't do what you wanted him to do, not because of what he's done/hasn't done. If the Bears had signed Terron Armstead and traded for Robert Woods (using him because his trade value and contract are most reasonable of the deals made) they'd still be a team that's not good enough to seriously compete for a Superbowl, maybe not even a playoff spot. If you're that far away and need 21 other players, there's really not a point in hampering your future ability to add players by giving 15M/year to a 30+ year old or trading draft picks for a big salary or injury risk, in Woods' case. The GM and the coaching is the help this year. Clearly those were huge issues for Fields last year, by his own admission at least in the Cleveland game. Just relax and give it more than 2 months. I don't really disagree with you much, but if Fields gets killed this year because the O-Line is so bad and turns into David Carr then you've set yourself back another 3-4 years. It's certainly a fine line to walk. I'm not overly concerned about him being David Carr'd. But I definitely don't think QB development is in a vaccum without influence. Supporting Fields helps his development. But if he also just has "it" and is ready to explode, relatively modest improvements make this a playoff team in 2022, so there is opportunity cost to punting too much to next year. Anyways at this pace next year's spending splurge will probably put Bears 2018, Pats 2021, and Jags 2022 splurges to shame.

I'm okay with not giving up trade assets, but the FA spending is gonna come. 2023 is shaping up to be a absolutely massive year for them in FA and it would have been relatively easy to do some more if that now. And I'm not sure the FA risks/downsides disappear. You'll overpay some. You'll probably get stuck with some bad deals. But you'll raise tye talent floor greatly. I don't generally love any sort of feast/famine approach. Would be better to use some of those cap resources in 22.

Sucks that we we “went for it” the year we had an impossible schedule and are retooling the year we have an easy schedule Gonna line up for so many bad takes lol

Can't believe Treylon Burks may slip to the 2nd round. I understand his limitations, but his play on the field says more than running around in underwear does. He's a big play waiting to happen whether you get the ball to him short, deep or intermediate. This is probably how I'd rank them as far as talent goes, but with the caveat that the Bears really need an outside WR, so if they pass on Dotson for Pickens or Watson, I'd understand completely. Dotson and Moore can play outside, though they are smaller, but may be better off playing all over the field similar to Mooney and maybe Pringle as well. Messed around on a PFF mock the other day where I trade up to 33 to snag him then back down from 48 to recoup some picks.

IIRC, I think Cruikshank is very good defending against TEs, but yes, he's another DHC type. If we can sign a capable SS to start and then a minimum $$ FS to back up Jackson/5th safety, I'm fine with the safeties as a group. Do Bears normally have 5 safeties on their roster? Pace usually seemed to go more CB happy than S happy but that is obviously meaningless in a new regime.

The threshold to count toward the comp pick formula is typically around 2.5Mil. I don't think it's a "set" amount, it's just based on percentage of contracts signed. Only players who sign contracts in the top 35% of AAV league-wide qualify for a comp pick. And with rookie deals, UDFA deals, vet minimums, etc. 65% of NFL contracts tend to be less than 2.5M AAV on any given year. Yea, best estimate I've seen is around 2.5. There is a set lower limit thats currently 1.77 and goes up 0.2 every other year. But the 35% threshold is obviously well about that and would figure to stay so.

Grant's deal would have been big enough, but he was never gonna be comp pick eligible because he didn't reach the "Maximum Possible Term" on his deal. O'Donnell wasnt big enough. And yea not much chance to net any.

Do you have me blocked? Haha never. Just didn't read ahead. Looks like they didn't do much in that first year either. I guess it's just destined to be a first year GM thing. Ultimate conservative league. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2016/08/offseason-review-tennessee-titans-2016

Definitely did mean to lol I don't understanding how this is supposed to be helpful to Bears fans. Beane was brought in to a team that was effectively run by the head coach who was hired months before him, coming on board after the draft. They played and were above .500 the first year with a team put together before Beane got involved. They then drafted their quarterback of the future the following season and had the luxury of not really needing to see anything about of him in year 1. Poles took over this team from day 1 this offseason with the QB already in place. And contrary to that thread, they don't have 4 years to make a couple runs without having to pay Fields. They have to decide on the 5th year option after year 3, and the longer you wait to sign them to a real extension, the more prohibitively expensive it will be. You can't put Fields in a position to get destroyed with no weapons (people keep giving examples of QBs who succeeded with poor offensive lines, but those examples all had pro bowl caliber skill players and many all pros) while expecting him to take the huge year 2 leap (Eberflus's words). They don't have the luxury of blowing off Fields in 2022. And as others have pointed out, if all you do is save your cap space for a rainy day you will get caught overspending once that day comes. The fact that the Bills managed to draft and develop what may be the best QB in the league says nothing about the Bears ability to take advantage of Fields' abilities. Yea Bills are not a great model based on prerequisites. Im trying to think of teams who had major regime change (coach and FO) in year 2 of a QB. I'm not sure there's any template to follow. But using other teams 2nd year under a QB, they were all that I have seen far more agressive. Just was the same GM executing strategy. Poles seems destined to make it his 2nd year and Fields 3rd. Which I guess we'll see how it goes, but I don't get it and every support I've seen it makes a weak correlative effect as an assumed causal one.

Rule 1 is mostly pointless. Team 1 still has a huge first mover advantage. It will just be 2-1 instead of 1-0. Rule 2 is interesting, but I don't think any team is giving up 1st possession still. And I'm not sure many will go for 2. So defacto same thing in most games. Literally just killing the coin toss would be a bigger improvement than either of these IMO. But there are other ways I think they could also temper some of the first mover advantage. All would involve some sort of full timed period though.

Slightly Bears related. I just found out DK Metcalf is the son of former Bear Terrence Metcalf. He obviously had him young, but I'm struggling to recover from this news re: my advanced age.

Siemian contract is at 2/4M. Theyll try to trade Foles, but at that value for Siemian I doubt anything is imminent and I'd bet on Foles just being cut. Net net the Bears would save $1M after cutting Foles.

Foles to who then?

Bates still seems like a swing IOL guy at best. Think they need a solid swing T and then maybe a cut candidate at G before the draft. That would allow them to focus on one big OL draft pick, but with position versatility Jenkins, Whitehair, Patrick, Bates, Borom Swing T, Vet G, Rookie, Mustipher That's barely an acceptable top 9 I guess. But could have made a bigger investment above the Bates role and tried to let Whitehair get beat out. They signed Dakota Dozier yesterday, so that's probably your Vet Guard for the bench. He gave up 6 sacks and committed 6 penalties when he started in 2020 for the Vikings (he's terrible). Lot riding on Patrick and Bates being able to play and Jenkins/Borom developing into really good players, really fast. A guy who spent the whole year on the PS is definitely not what I mean. Maybe more of a post draft cut candidate like Leno was last year. But some solid vet will get cut pre draft maybe.

Bates still seems like a swing IOL guy at best. Think they need a solid swing T and then maybe a cut candidate at G before the draft. That would allow them to focus on one big OL draft pick, but with position versatility Jenkins, Whitehair, Patrick, Bates, Borom Swing T, Vet G, Rookie, Mustipher That's barely an acceptable top 9 I guess. But could have made a bigger investment above the Bates role and tried to let Whitehair get beat out.

When you look at elite QBs they know where to place the ball to receivers who are not necessarily open. They seem to have the ability to throw the ball so that only the WR has the opportunity to catch it. Fields needs to be hyper-accurate with his throws if he's going to be an elite QB. Obviously, you need sticky-handed WR to make those catches too. While I don't want to discount Fields ability to grow into a more anticipatory passer I think the best version of him is gonna be more a see open throw passer than an anticipatory guy. If he miraculously becomes Rodgers, getting the ball out quickest in the league and creating separation with timing, that's amazing, but for all his talent that isn't his game right now.

I'm bullish on Fields of course, but guys have to get open. While I also expect a new scheme to open, he's still gonna need help. Unless you're super bullish on Mooney (I'm moderately so), I don't know. I mean if it was so easy and so QB dependent, Mecole Hardman would be right there with those guys too right? It's asking a lot when it doesn't have to be.

A lot of WR have still taken time to adjust (guys like Deebo or Pittman) Theres too major win now teams with multiple 1st round picks before the Bears who badly need WR. Worst thing they can do is pigeon hole themselves. But right now there needs are pretty numerous so I guess it's not a concern?

I think all the fans who wanted Dodds because he was gonna be their Ballard are getting a version of it to the extreme (and I hate it). Still a little time in FA for Poles to catchup, but they are on pace to be so seriously underleveraged so as to reach way past a point of diminishing returns.

2/12 for Jones. More than I thought. So Pringle - 6m Jones - 6 Muhammad - 5 Morrow 2.5 (up to 5) Patrick - 4 St Brown?? St Brown is probably near minimum. So Poles has handed out like 25-27M in AAV contracts, mostly on one year deals, about $40M in total contracts. If they were really trying they should have been handing out like 60M in AAV contracts based on my formula lol. Bears will have gobs of cash next year, but look not further than the 2022 Jaguars to see what it's actually like when a bad team actually tries to utlizie cap room like that. They're roundly being criticized for the 120M in AAV contracts theyre dropping this offseason.

Now signing DE Muhammad from the Colts Yea Bears aren't getting a comp pick. He's 2/10. There's no way we have more departures than arrivals for CFAs. Not a huge thing. Hopefully something the eventually get just by drafting well.

Partially depends on where Jones comes in at. If his AAV comes in above 2.3M or so it doesn't change a lot. There's obviously a valuation difference, but being 1 for 1 on losses v gains matters mostly, not total value. As it stands now, Bears don't project to gain any comp picks. Thats actually true regardless of where Jones comes in. But whether he counts or not could be a deciding factor later on if things are close. But I'd say leave the comp pick worries behind for 2023 at this point. If enough of these 1 year prove it deals hit maybe 2024 comp picks become realistic lol.