But that's not true. August - End of Season 2004: .254/.348/.563/.911 2005: .237/.370/.438/.808 2006: .176/.299/.346/.645 I didn't say *each* of the last three seasons, I said *over* the last three seasons. Weight those three OPS numbers by plate appearances, and you get 797. Ergo the conclusion, over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800. Put it this way -- if we knew for sure that the Cubs would get one of those three numbers from Dunn (911, 808, 645), then the enthusiasm level around here would decline dramatically. You averaged them? I'd say that's not very intellectually honest. Your original point was implying that Dunn was not as good a hitter down the stretch. Given that time-driven splits aren't reliable to begin with, there'd need to be a consistent drop in performance for it to have any merit. That obviously hasn't been the case. To use an average is to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year. As far as "trend lines" go, given what I just said about the reliability of timed splits, there would have to be some sort of cause for him to somehow be declining in his ability to hit after the deadline. Unless there's something you can point to that would cause him to heavily wear down after July, we have to assume that last year is an outlier.