Transmogrified Tiger

I would guess Rondon/Strop/CJ, with Montgomery and Duensing as possibilities depending on if you might get a few LH in short succession.

did they say Gonzalez had a great series against the Cubs last year? He had a .594 OPS.

wow, Kershaw did a side session making him unavailable on 2 days rest in a series they led 2-0 how brave

i don't really see how it's fair that Kershaw gets to throw a boomerang instead of a baseball when he wants to throw a curve

I think Butler, Tseng, Mills, and Zastryzny are the 7th-10th starters, but I don't think they'd impact the bullpen beyond a September callup and eating a few innings in long relief. Leathersich is Rosscup is every LHRP with good K rates and terrible control. Maybe you get lucky but I don't anticipate any meaningful MLB contribution. Carasiti and Maples I see as first in line for the Iowa shuttle. Maybe one of them makes the team depending on how the pitching staff shakes out, injuries, and spring performance, but hopefully not both. I think Garner has flown under the radar a bit. He didn't fare so well in his first AAA stint, but he was very strong at AA and they clearly think something of him since he went to the AFL. He's another Grimm in the best case scenario, but that's far better a possibility than his zero hype suggests. I don't think they'll mess around with Alzolay in the pen, he's too young to give up on as a meaningful SP and his stuff doesn't exactly scream impact reliever. Clifton I can see getting moved to the pen and doing well there, if that happens sooner than later he could be a factor. Mekkes and Araujo should both start at AA, and both could be in the hunt for a September callup and squarely in the conversation for the 2019 pen. Araujo is the best relief prospect no one talks about. In full-season ball: 119.2 IP, 80 H, 2.26 ERA, 154/42 K/BB, 6 HR, and he was better in every way at his highest level yet this year. Craig Brooks is also worth keeping a side eye on to see if he can throw strikes like he did at Myrtle Beach, he's probably closer to Garner than Mekkes/Araujo. Underwood should be shot into the sun.

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Yeah I have no interest in Stanton, let him be someone else’s contract albatross. Bryce or bust in a year. What guarantee is there that Harper's next contract isn't a giant albatross? He's probably going to ask for a 10/$400M deal Harper is 6 weeks older than Baez.

The opt out is 3 years away, and requires Stanton thinking he's going to get a contract better than 7/218 starting with his age 31 season.

Yes, anyone who gets put on the DL would be ineligible for the world series. Of course it's not difficult to imagine that being a worthwhile tradeoff if you're trailing in a series and you can just start McCarthy instead of Wood later, or not worry about bringing back Charlie Culbertson or whatever.

The rules assume you aren't embellishing injuries to play with a roster that's functionally more than 25. MLB already warned the Dodgers about their use of the 10 day DL for this purpose, but most of the time it wasn't too egregious because there were optioning games they could have done to achieve the same result. That's not true of the playoffs, so if they try to do the same thing to get their star player a few days of recovery without playing with a 24 man roster, MLB needs to say no.

If MLB let's them do this after their DL shenanigans all season long, I will be angry. [tweet] [/tweet]

lol, I just realized that tweet is in direct response to Hendricks hitting and pitching the 4th

oh did Roberts finally finish babby's big book of sabermetrics

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The Nats never had a series lead. This also isn't a unique pain for the Nats. They've lost in the NLDS in 3 of the last 4 years, and are 0-8 in 1 run games in those series. 8 of 9 losses by 1 run is a lot of room for variety in heartbreak.

He also got a final PA (a K) in the 9th that Zimmerman, Murphy, and Rendon(combined: 3 for 10, 2B, HR, 5 BB) did not. There are two mistakes here. One is playing Werth, which is at least arguable(after his big night he finished the series with a .540 OPS). The other is hitting him 2nd, which is unequivocally bad.

Yep, plus while the Dodgers haven't been a dumpster fire against LHP like last year, they're still more vulnerable to LHP with 2 of their 3 best hitters being LH, Grandal being much worse against LHP(so they sacrifice some D to go to Barnes), and other RH hitters(Hernandez, Forsythe) not having good years. Getting 4 LH starts in a 7 game series is a worthwhile goal. On the other hand, that lineup screams nightmare fuel for Lackey, with 5/27 being a perfect illustration.

Game 2 is the only game that has any rest worries either way. EDIT: I like the latter path because not only do you avoid giving Lackey a start, but the people who do get extra rest (Lester after 3 outings in 8 days, Arrieta with his hammy) are most likely to benefit from it.

The number of times people run *hard* through home plate without sliding compared to how many times people run hard through first base pales in comparison though. It's probably literally 100x more common at 1st base, maybe twice that.

Off the top of my head, other downsides: - runners being unable to run hard through first because they'd lose balance when landing on the slicker surface, like a cartoon character on ice - incessant wiping of the bases every time there's a play at one - turning a double play becomes a lot more difficult and hazardous If you make the base material more spongy that would help with some of those.

Jayson Werth got as many plate appearances as Rendon, and 18 more than Lind, Kendrick, and Goodwin combined He let the Nationals blow a lead in the late innings without Madson or Doolittle pitching He stacked the back half of the lineup with right handed hitters + Wieters (despite options like Lind and Goodwin) and never pinch hit for them, making it really easy to plan around in the late innings. Strop retiring 11 of 13 hitters in the series is not an accident.

I had forgotten that the rainout meant short rest for Game 2. I think I probably still prefer Quintana then Lester with a quick hook for Lackey over Lackey then Quintana. Quintana I don't even consider going on short rest, and while Lester is a small risk, you can be quick with the hook to limit some of it. That would mean Lester's 2nd start isn't til Game 6 on 5 days rest, so the lasting effects are minimized too.

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As an aside, I'm probably too tired today to properly phrase this, but holy smokes has the internet baseball world overcorrected on pitcher usage in elimination games. The universal shrieking about Hendricks hitting and pitching in the 4th was just beyond belief. The same people who sneer about 'momentum' have now become absolutely convinced that a couple hits means a guy 'just doesn't have it today' without regard to their ability to correct, how many outs a team still needs to get, spot in the batting order, and the quality of the other available options.