This is the brewerfan.net logic all over again. - The Cubs have an enormous head start on the rest of the division in the form of Bryant/Rizzo. 10 wins from 2 position players gives the Cubs a leg up before you even get to the rest of the roster, and the Cubs have had and look to continue to have terrific depth. - This really needs to be said twice. The Cubs are upwards of 10 games better than the rest of the division today. The most important players they lose over the next 2 offseasons are Arrieta and Davis, both guys who you don't necessarily want to trust for future seasons, and in Davis's case has only been around this year and are much more easily replaced with cash. - Yes, the core will need to be paid more through arbitration, but the Cubs can afford to live at or above the luxury tax, and that means they aren't going to have to cut salary or even be all that inhibited in free agency. There's a path to a potential logjam around 2020 or so, but that is 1) 3 years away (see below) 2) requires spending on other really good players(e.g. Harper) and 3) assumes the Cubs will absolutely want to keep every pre-FA player that long. Maybe one of Schwarber/Russell/Baez tanks and they don't want to pay them their arb salaries. That's not going to make or break the Cubs competitive chances, and mitigates their risk on the payroll side. - Projecting team quality more than 2-3 years in the future is 100% guesswork. 2 years ago, Eloy was putting up a .746 OPS in short season ball and Cease had a handful of wild innings in Mesa coming off TJS. This summer they were part of the 'depletion' of the farm system to get a controlled SP. 2 years ago, Happ put up a .763 OPS in Low-A, this year he was an above average player in the big leagues. - But, if we're going to play doomsday with the Cubs chances years from now, make sure to do it with their competitors too. Fowler, Carpenter, and Molina are going to get worse before they get better. Tommy Pham has no track record for his 2017 (same with DeJong) and he turns 30 before Opening Day. Wacha was their 2nd best starter(an indictment itself) and is 2 years from FA. Their farm system has depth but their main hope for impact players are hoping Pham continues to run a .370 BABIP into his 30s and that Alex Reyes comes back from TJS with better control than he had before it. They are in purgatory.