Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
So it’s up to 30 Days from Friday for him to decide, right? Which would put New Years as the deadline? From a legal perspective, yes, but considering there isn't a need to pit teams against each other in negotiation, I would expect it to be faster than that. If I had to guess, he's getting a written report from teams to decide the finalists he wants to talk to in person, then he'll do that and take a few days and make a decision. If he's getting posted 12/1, then it's conceivably possible he could sign before the winter meetings. -
This is good overall, but his read of the Simmons tweet takes it to another level: [tweet] [/tweet]
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The 4/60ish range mentioned in that reddit thread, while maybe not actually sourced info, feels right. It's one year and/or a couple mil of AAV past what you'd consider a real good deal, and despite Cobb being an attractive enough candidate there are enough downmarket options of close enough quality and enough red flags to keep his bidding from spiraling. Speaking of Cobb the pitcher, I really would like to get him in, because I think on the Cubs in particular he has a chance to be pretty good. He's been a pretty consistent FIP-beater, in part because he gets ground balls. Sticking with Hickey, moving to the NL and the Cubs defense could be very positive developments. Plus last year he got stronger as the year went on and was further removed from his surgery. I know Cubs Insider did some piece about his pitch mix or statcast FIP for a 2 month span, but frankly I don't think that is even a little bit important. Cobb is the best combination of performance, potential, and cost on the Free Agent market.
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From 2014-2016, aTm was 6th, 10th, and 17th in Rivals' rankings, and they lost 5 games with those classes leading the way. Recruiting matters, and Fisher is a good coach so he'd make them better, but there's an upper bound to how much it matters relative to the actual ability to develop players. 10 SEC schools were in the Top 19 in 2014 classes, only 3 of those coaches are going to coach those teams in 2018.
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10 wins is only a birthright if you have an incredible coach, there are no moats due to resource advantages in the SEC(or most power conferences, but especially the SEC). Sure Texas A&M is number 1 in revenue, but there are 11 SEC teams in the Top 25.
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Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I follow the logic and don't really disagree, but I think the AL still holds sway on things that can actually be sold to him. It's trivially easy for an AL team to chart a path to 400 PA via the DH, whether they'll actually do it doesn't mean as much to me because like you say, Otani is going to be confident that he'll hit anyway. In practice an NL team might be a better/more sustainable arrangement, but since this is unprecedented it's gonna be easier to overpromise as an AL team. -
Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I forgot about Maeda, so you're probably right that I'd consider the Dodgers' odds a bit better. Basically: Competitive: Cubs and Dodgers are head of the class here, with the Yankees and Red Sox still strong Playing time: AL teams can give him DH time that NL teams won't be able to Japanese influence: Yankees and Dodgers have a rotation mate that can speak the language, this could be a downside if Otani really wants to distinguish himself as his own guy. Which leads to.. Head of the rotation: Cubs and Yankees have the most opportunity here, Otani will be second fiddle to Kershaw or Sale in LA/Boston I also give the Cubs the benefit of the doubt given Theo's success in signing players from Japan and in winning negotiations where he isn't simply dropping the highest dollar amount(Lester, Heyward). Other front offices are good at what they do, but there's more of a track record to go on for him. So something like 25/20/15/15/25 between Yankees/Dodgers/Cubs/Red Sox/Field? -
Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
In the last 20 years there have been 17 players who came over from NPB and played at least 5 years(this is to self select for some level of desirability, although it's not perfect). Seattle 3 Boston 3 (all Epstein era) Dodgers 2 Mets 2 Yankees 1 (although Tanaka will make 2) Cubs 1 (Fukudome, non-Epstein era) Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Texas 1 each The Epstein era Cubs have also signed multiple Japanese players who didn't make it that long in Fujikawa and Wada. Big markets have an advantage in most historical cases because they're big enough to have communities that aren't completely foreign, and they have the most money to pay. The latter doesn't matter in this case, and the above clearly illustrates that the Cubs aren't some extreme underdog to NY/LA in the former. I would say the Yankees are the favorite, but not runaway favorites and I like the Cubs' odds as much as any non-Yankee team. -
Is that the same guy who leaked quintana No(that guy's source was with the Sox),but they appear to believe this poster knows someone in the Cubs org.
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Alabama just had to play the final ~10 minutes of their game against Minnesota with 3 players. There was an altercation where the Bama bench came onto the court, which got their entire bench ejected. Then they had a player foul out and another roll an ankle. Miraculously, they made a game of it, I turned it on with about 9 minutes to play and they cut the deficit from 12 to 3(including an offensive possession while down 3) before Minnesota pulled away.
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Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
No, he's intentionally coming over now when he'll get a signing bonus of less than 10 million(followed by pre-arb salaries) when he could wait a year and make 9 figures, so money clearly isn't a primary factor. If the Cubs were to sign him, they'd give him the max signing bonus of 300k, and then he'd be a 1st year player just like Happ was this year, making 500k or so and being 6 years from free agency. -
Michael Porter Jr. is having back surgery and will miss the season, so basketball is now canceled and we can lock this thread.
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Looks like he had Thoracic Outlet surgery in August.
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fyi he's ramped up from dude-bro to white supremacist in recent years
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I'm not saying this means you get Colome for a song, but if the Rays know they can make a deal that cuts 14 million(Colome + Ramos), maybe they don't haggle quite so much knowing that the rest of their offseason then has a lot more flexibility, considering there probably isn't a line of suitors for Ramos and the other contracts they could clear are almost all guys who are more crucial to their success(save maybe Odorizzi, who won't clear as much $ as Ramos anyway).
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I'm not following? I'd think they could move Ramos pretty easily, if they want to. I might be understating Ramos's trade value, but if a team is looking to contend, they're probably not too jazzed about Ramos as anything but a backup given his injuries and inconsistency(only 1 year in the last 4 with a 95+ wRC+). As a backup he's pricey for all but a few teams. If a team isn't looking to contend, Ramos's bounce back potential only goes so far since he's over 30 and is only under control for a year(and is never going to get a QO). It's not a difference in trade return like the Jays potentially moving Martin would be, but it could help make things a bit easier. Like Topkin says in his article, if they want to clear salary without touching Archer/Longoria, they can try their best to dump the middling players that have commitments, and packaging Colome/Ramos would be a way to get rid of a sizable bit of payroll(for them) while still getting something worthwhile in return.
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More rumblings that the Rays are going to shed payroll one way or another: http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/Topkin-As-Rays-start-dealing-how-far-will-they-go-_162778806 I wonder if taking on Ramos(1/8.5, 6.25 against LT) might help grease the wheels in a deal for someone like Colome.
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Shohei Ohtani Signs with the Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
actually, Nippon Ham is the name of the scientist -
Jay Jackson may be making a comeback! [tweet] [/tweet] He was always one of my irrational favorite minor leaguers.
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Put me down for 'it's silly to think that the Cubs can snake their way into a player that all 30 teams would want and can afford by other teams miraculously failing to have a lead piece', and also 'it's silly to think a team blowing it up is going to be so picky to turn down value in the form of Addison Russell so they can bank pitching prospects'.
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It doesn't even need to be that hard. Adjusted for position and park, Bryant was the most valuable offensive player in the NL. As long as you don't think Stanton or Rendon are 5-10 runs better than him defensively, then he's a logical option to be the most valuable.
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Price is owed 4/127 after the opt out and would be 33 for the first season after the opt out. The odds of him opting out are incredibly low.
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Odom going from the hot seat to serving as the grim reaper for 2 other coaches(and only missing McElwain by 5 days) is hilarious to me.
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I almost wonder if Montgomery would be the guy here. The Orioles can still put up a facade of competitiveness since they have Brach and Givens at the end of the pen, and Montgomery would definitely have a home in that rotation. The Cubs lose out on his swingman abilities, but they don't need him as a true LHRP with Britton and Wilson(plus Edwards's splits), and they could more confidently dive into the bottom of the SP FA/trade market knowing that they have that role open if they luck into someone better.
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Well normally the rumors ive seen from him and Sears are rehashed stuff from the beat and national guys. Those are not worth posting other than to make fun of them. Heyman had Cubs and Dodgers on Britton 2 days ago. https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-dodgers-and-cubs-interested-in-orioles-closer-britton/
