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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    You need a couple more pre-arbs, Cots has it as 13 million and change when you swap Castro for Stanton: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ai3Wo4UVZbUFtEEOnVEUwBgh2H45wwNe4nd6bXPAvRQ They also have late year arb increases to Didi, Gray, and Hicks after next year, plus Severino, Bird, and mayyybe Sanchez as 1st year arb eligible. That probably eats up half of what gets freed up by expiring contracts. They aren't in bad shape by any means, it's just tighter than a cursory look would appear.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    I get that was the bit, but I think there's practical reasons that signing 3 relievers can't happen. Too many teams are going to get more desperate for their first reliever before you get your third. It also means that Cobb is less likely than it was before Chatwod. Cahill is probably going to get a better chance at innings than Cubs 7th starter too.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    After this trade they'll be 10-15 million under. They can probably trade away Betances to fit room to add someone like Cobb and probably be under on the whole.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs have a World Series ring(Torres for Chapman) and Quintana(Eloy) because they got the very best IFAs in a particular class. you know what i meant. i considered changing it to "best" instead of "good" for clarification, but i'm too lazy. i'm not complaining about the front office or anything like that, i just think it would be cool to come away with one of these tanaka/darvish/ohtani level guys If you're not going to consider Soler, a guy who had played in a high level foreign league and was highly sought after, then you're drawing from an incredibly narrow pool. Even on your list you have Darvish, who had a 50 million posting fee in Theo's first offseason when they were nowhere close to contention, and Tanaka, who has never hit 200 IP and is so good he decided not to opt out of that deal because his arm is held together with bits of string. I'd have liked to have any of those 3 too, but it's a big leap for me to be frustrated by the outcomes or to feel like there's been some persistent shortcoming.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs have a World Series ring(Torres for Chapman) and Quintana(Eloy) because they got the very best IFAs in a particular class.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    Yes, because they'll go over the luxury tax next year.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    This only really works if Ohtani picks the Cubs, and I'm not 1000% sold on it, but let's humor the idea. Ohtani picks the Cubs Happ, Alzolay, Zagunis, Tseng for Stanton Sign 2 relievers, a backup C and backup OF(e.g. Reed, Gregerson, Rivera, Jackson) Contreras/Bryant/Rizzo/Stanton/Schwarber/Russell/(Zobrist/Baez)/(Heyward/Almora) Rivera, Baez, Almora, La Stella, Jackson Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Chatwood/Montgomery Reed/Edwards/Strop/Gregerson/Wilson/(Grimm/AAA) That's pretty good, and several million under the luxury tax.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    [tweet] [/tweet]
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    Seems like a lot more pros than cons for a signing that costs under $13M aav The cons are pretty big cons for someone taking a rotation spot.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    Hmmm, not sure how I feel about this yet + Opportunity for ceiling getting away from Coors + Athletic (defense plus indicator of durability) + Only 28 + 3 years instead of 4+ for other FA options + Soft contact + Heavy on fastball matches up well with Hickey + Historically not an extreme L/R split + This front office clearly wanted him - lack of proven durability - doesn't throw strikes - 2 TJS already
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    You aren't kidding. "[san Diego] is entering a competitive window" "They also have arguably the most savvy GM of the bunch." Here's the list of returning Padres with 2+ wins: Clayton Richard, Jose Pirela. Their GM has been punished for lying about medical info and is digging out of a hole he dug himself with a series of terrible trades. Ohtani might pick them for the locale/market and opportunity to be 'the guy' and the past relationship, but that's still quite the reality distortion field they're putting up.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    The article I read implied only a small percentage of Russian athletes are eligible to compete as neutrals, they need a pretty extensive history of clean drug tests to be able to get the waiver.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    The age is the most relevant point there(and there's no LOLing at someone wanting to pursue Stanton), but Pujols was also in a different stratosphere of productivity. Pujols had 8 seasons of 7+ fWAR, Stanton has zero. Stanton is very good, but he carries both performance and injury risk nonetheless.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    So we need to call up Sabean and merge with the Giants.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Any plan that involves signing Harper is going to take the Cubs over the luxury tax, or be really bad. The one exception would be a Heyward trade/opt-out, which is basically a non-starter at the moment. That's okay, as long as they stay under this year they don't have to be all that concerned about how much they exceed it by in order to get Harper, but they will exceed it nonetheless. As an example, my path upthread which is basically Ohtani, Yelich, Cobb, and 2 relievers in terms of 2019 expenditures, leaves them about 13 million under the threshold in planning the '19 offseason. There's no path to being 30+ under entering 2019 that doesn't make 2018 much worse.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    If we're trading for Yelich, would we actually be better off keeping Almora to hit against lefties? Our remaining OF's after trading Almora would all be better against right handed pitching: Heyward, Schwarber, Happ, Zobrist and Yelich. I know you suggested signing Jackson afterwards, but I'm wondering if that would be enough. How about sending Happ+, but also taking back Nick Wittgren as an optionable relief candidate? My assumption was Almora would be necessary with his higher ceiling and Miami ties.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    This is my ideal offseason pretty much. I should add, you could probably even skip on adding an outfielder in this case if you really wanted to, since Happ/Zobrist can hoover up a bunch of starts and Ohtani could maybe snag a few at bats if he hits since his SP workload would be managed more. Zagunis is also lurking in Iowa. That also solves the problem of needing to choose between Grimm and La Stella on the 25 man roster, although that's not exactly a tortuous decision either way. Probably doesn't hurt to add one though, especially if it's a 1 year deal it doesn't impact your ability to stay under the luxury tax this year or impact any 2019 FA pursuit.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    This is a very narrow thread-the-needle sequence, but if you can pull it off.. Get Ohtani. Self-explanatory. Trade Almora++ for Yelich + Volquez. This is predicated on the Marlins being interested in dropping another 20 million like rumors are indicating. Yelich solves the quasi-problem of who leads off and adds another high OBP bat with long term certainty. Volquez gives another swingman arm along with Montgomery to help protect Otani's workload in year 1 before his salary disappears in time for the big FA class. Sign Cobb. Rotation now complete. Sign Reed. He's your nominal closer. Sign your other favorite reliever. There's like 8 to choose from, I'm not gonna be too picky at this point. Sign your favorite backup C and backup OF. I like Rivera and Austin Jackson. Yelich/Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber/Zobrist/Russell/Heyward with Rivera/Baez/Happ/Jackson/La Stella on the bench (La Stella is optionable if need be) Quintana/Ohtani/Hendricks/Lester/Cobb with Montgomery and Volquez able to pick up starts Reed/Edwards/Strop/FA/Wilson/Montgomery/Volquez/Grimm, Grimm likely to be DFA'd at the drop of a hat if need be.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    That is the quintessential Wittenmyer experience. Add no new information, say something accurate from the most pessimistic angle even if it's irrelevant. Are any of the other finalists also penalty teams? Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and should they miraculously get confirmed as a finalist, the Reds. https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    That is the quintessential Wittenmyer experience. Add no new information, say something accurate from the most pessimistic angle even if it's irrelevant.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    gone...what was it? [tweet] [/tweet] A separate tweet also says the Angels are not known.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    No, he'll need to accrue 6 years of service time to be a free agent. Whoever he signs with will have him through 2023.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    [tweet] [/tweet]
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    Brewers, Pirates, and Blue Jays are out.
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think you might be mixing this up with the Stanton trade negotiations. I haven't heard about any team meeting in person with Ohtani.
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