Transmogrified Tiger

I can get that sentiment for sure. But, I'd guess his next 2 years are in the same vicinity of production as Jake or Yu, at a fraction of the money and without the back end of those deals we're likely going to hate. I don't think the current version of Cole is on par with Darvish especially, but he has been that guy before and it's easy to see the logic of getting back there with Hickey working with that fastball. To me he's more like a Cobb in terms of risk/reward, but given his arb salaries for 2 years if you can get him without touching the MLB roster, it's hard to call that a bad idea.

I could be wrong, but to me the idea of trading for Gerrit Cole is more exciting than the reality of what you get when you trade for Gerrit Cole.

If they weren't willing to give Caratini reps at catcher last year, I don't think they'll start the season with him as the primary backup. They'll bring in someone like Rivera, probably Rivera actually.

I think the pen is done unless Montgomery is traded, and even then it might not be an addition with material salary. Morrow, Cishek, Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Montgomery, Grimm is a full pen even before getting into the Iowa shuttle, and there are no real optionable players in that list either. Smyly is lurking in the back half too. Darvish does cut into the financial wiggle room you have to play with, but he also means you don't have to trade from the position players to upgrade the rotation. That means you can wait out the OF market to get a deal on a backup or even go with an NRI or Zagunis, since Happ/Zobrist/Baez have only 1 open slot each day and enough positional flexibility to cover everywhere.

Bruce Levine says the Cubs have 'renewed interest' in Arrieta: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/02/cubs-2018-needs-additions-arrieta-darvish-cobb-yelich/ I'm going to interpret that interest(from Levine especially) as mild pressure for Darvish to make a decision already.

Montgomery and Almora alone is a real healthy offer for Machado. Maybe the Orioles don't agree, and that's likely a big reason why this isn't plan A as opposed to Darvish, but one year of Machado at 15 million is not going to be worth it if he commands an absurd ransom. With the rumors as persistent as they are, I have to assume that the Orioles are at least somewhat realistic, or maybe they're more interested in an expanded deal with Gausman that serves as one stop shopping and would in fact justify 3 or more MLB caliber assets.

I think you give the most serious consideration to Baez, he's made slow but noticeable progress and if he takes another step forward this year you probably aren't going to do better. Adding Harper coincidentally helps with this, because you can move Heyward to CF and free up Happ to 2B if you've traded Almora and Zobrist isn't startable. The Free Agent options are pretty uninspiring. Galvis, Hechevarria, Jose Iglesias, etc. Not players you want starting on a championship contender. So if it's not Baez you're looking at a trade, but my money would be on finding a LH hitting SS with decent enough plate discipline to be a hedge against Baez's worst flaws while still giving Javy the bulk of playing time.

I don't mean that they want someone who Joe Fan recognizes, I mean they literally want to have a star-caliber player added. This is clearly an era where merely good teams are at a greater disadvantages, as the best teams load up as much as possible. The marginal benefit of Darvish over Cobb is greater for the Cubs(especially given their rotation situation) than it is for a team not smack dab in the middle of a competitive window. Darvish, Hendricks, Q, Lester/Chatwood makes for a much more potent playoff rotation than one without Darvish and with a different FA. I'll preface this with the thought that I've never been over the moon about Machado personally, even before he was a trade target. And I'm closer to a years of team control fetishist so I'm more inclined like you to see big moves be for people who stick around. But the front office is really smart and it's undeniable they have real interest in Machado at this point, so let's try to piece it together. If I had to guess, I'd say it's due to the SP market and the luxury tax. The Cubs could really use a pretty good SP to stay at the top of the NL pecking order, and not just someone you can squint and see a path to being real good, like Chatwood or Cobb. That means the FA options in this vein are Darvish or bust. Darvish isn't going to be cheap, and while it is possible to sign him and still get Harper next year, you probably have to get creative, and that's before the reality of the 2018 season happens. Maybe a key pitcher like Quintana or Morrow has their shoulder blow up in August. Now your margin for error gets all the more thin and maybe involves some sub-ideal options like bribing a team to take on a contract(Zobrist? Lester?) with actual good players. So if the FA option is a narrow path, then we're left with the trade market. The Cubs could trade Happ or Almora without a ton of hurt, but the prospect pool is thin enough behind them and those 2 have enough flaws that it limits the market of pitcher you can get, you're probably back to doing more hoping that the pitcher is real good than you want. But, what if there was a way to open yourself up to get a higher end trade candidate? That would involve Russell, who has the best combo of team control, youth, and potential of the non-Rizzo/Bryant/Contreras position players. Sure you could do that straight up and move Baez to SS, but that itself is a downgrade that mitigates the benefit. Insert Machado. You use other players to get Machado where the downgrade is much more marginal(Montgomery and Almora can be replaced without a lot of tears, for example). Now you can use Russell to get your SP that belongs in a playoff rotation, and you've also gotten a sizable upgrade for this year(a peak competitive year) on top of that. This fits much more cleanly into the luxury tax because Machado's money disappears after 2018, and the SP you acquire is going to make far less than Cobb/Darvish. Said another way, I'll go back to my point at the top, this is about stars. Trading for Machado and using Russell for a good SP maximizes your stars in 2018, and it's the path that makes it easiest to get another star player(almost certainly Harper) to replace Machado in the long run. You can possibly do that another way, but it could get dicey and has its own downsides.

If it's not in the same deal, I'd imagine they would be simultaneous deals, like the Zobrist/Castro moves (I think it was Zobrist but I'm mobile and can't easily check).

My current theory is that they want to add a star caliber player to replace Jake. They'd like it to be a pitcher, but they'll take what they can get. They thought Cobb might have been closer to Chatwoods AAV and when Cobb started stringing things along they jumped to finalize with Chatwood. When Otani didn't pick them and with the SP market unformed, they've jumped on Darvish. If they get Darvish, the Machado rumors die with the quickness. If Darvish goes elsewhere, they double down on trading non-Russell pieces for Machado and using Russell to get a SP. I continue to see little reason for Russell to be directly in a Machado deal unless Gausman is also involved.

Good for Wade, good job getting paid and thanks for 2017 and the draft pick. Would really like to see Darvish decide soon, if he isn't going to be a Cub then I think there's a world of creativity(Machado? Archer? Reed?) they might more aggressively explore with the extra payroll capacity.

"save it pal" is such a Kris Bryant insult I barely believe it's real

Lefties have feasted on Cole basically his whole career, last year alone they hit 18 home runs off him in less than 100 IP. Taking that package away from PNC's 20 foot RF fence and trading it in for Yankee stadium(and the DH) seems...suboptimal.

Just make a barstool out of poop emojis and repeat for all future panels

[tweet]https://twitter.com/rianwatt/status/943965792420401152[/tweet]

this question still stands we may never know what it is the mods actually do around here I sometimes confuse bd811 with bcl412. If I changed his name to bobson dugnutt then I'd confuse him with your old name. I decided to not make the change out of respect to bd811.

oh did I miss the fun of the Barstool idiots covering themselves in glory now I have to wait until [looks at calendar] tomorrow to see it again

lol what other stuff "Well we can't offer Addison Russell but you could have [squints at our top 30] Bobson Dugnutt?" Well we sure aren't gonna trade Steve McDichael, are we? More seriously, Happ, Almora, and Montgomery are the names that leap to mind, though not all of them. If that's not enough to sway Baltimore, I'm okay missing out on one year of Machado and still having the best infield in the game.

The inclusion of Russell isn't about trading him, but about trading him for Machado. Think he's a bad person, or his injuries are going to rob his potential, or the bat will never come around? Fine. But trading him for one year of another shortstop(especially one who gets much of their value from defense and has 52 career MLB games at SS) doesn't make much sense to me. Use other stuff to get Machado and then use Russell to get the pitcher those other guys couldn't bring. If you can't get Machado without Russell, then just move on, you still have Baez if you're desperate to trade Russell.

as an aside, this has been almost thoroughly debunked; estimated that each extra MPH adds just about a foot in distance, and that doesn't account for slower speed pitches being vastly easier to barrel In comparison to a ball on a tee though? Soft toss/BP speeds sure, but hitting a ball at a standstill 400 feet is no joke.

Yeah, Russell or Almora + Montgomery I could see, but there's no way Russell + any major leaguer is a deal that makes sense, even if you can make the argument on value.

Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber. Happ and Baez will hit at a 30 HR/650 PA pace but not get enough playing time to get there. Willson will be in the 20s but will be selling out for power a bit less with the amount of time he spends leading off.

Longoria getting 15M AAV probably wasn't going to sink the Cardinals at any point in the future. If anything the net positive is that taking on his money wouldn't lower the cost of going after someone like Archer. The Cardinals can trade for all the Longorias and Colomes and sign all the Addison Reeds and Dexter Fowlers they want. It's the Archer/Donaldson/Machado tier of players they truly need to be a persistent threat to the division. Isn’t the theory that a team of 25 guys at 2 WAR beats a team with 5 ten WAR guys and 20 replacement level players? I have no idea what I’m talking about, but I feel like I read that recently. The Cubs have depth and stars. The Cards have depth already. Closing off potential holes or marginal improvements aren't going to bridge the gap. Put another way, Steamer(since we don't have Cubs ZiPS yet) says the difference between the 2 teams is 5 wins at the moment. The Cubs' top 5 projected players account for 22.2 wins. The Cardinals top 5 account for 16.4 wins.

Longoria getting 15M AAV probably wasn't going to sink the Cardinals at any point in the future. If anything the net positive is that taking on his money wouldn't lower the cost of going after someone like Archer. The Cardinals can trade for all the Longorias and Colomes and sign all the Addison Reeds and Dexter Fowlers they want. It's the Archer/Donaldson/Machado tier of players they truly need to be a persistent threat to the division.

It's amusing to me that with the market mostly at a standstill, the most exciting rumors and deals have been smart teams looting the few remaining teams that have terrible ownership/front offices.