Transmogrified Tiger
-
Posts
38,769 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
70
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
-
Cubs Picking Up Hamels Option, Trading Smyly to Rangers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The logic I can come up with for why it's Smyly is that as a starter, with Hamels he's currently what, 8th on the depth chart? 9th if you're a big Alzolay fan? He threw one competitive inning last year. It's not certain he's ready to start games in April, and he's not going to be a guy you can plug into the rotation and let him go like you can with Montgomery or Chatwood, so even in positive outcomes for his workload you have to monitor him pretty intensely. As a reliever he has some higher end potential, but that productivity is also easier to find, and it's especially easier to find when you've moved Montgomery to 6th(7th if Chatwood cures his brain worms) on the SP depth chart. He'd also need to be babied a bit as a reliever, which is prevalent enough with the rest of the pen to dampen enthusiasm for that positive outcome too. I'd have given up Kintzler and/or Duensing as a pure salary dump first, but Smyly has always been a guy at the fringes of the 2019 pitching staff for me too. -
Cubs Picking Up Hamels Option, Trading Smyly to Rangers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Smyly makes 5 million. for luxury tax purposes, 7 million in actual payroll for 2019 2 years/$10M (2018-19) signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/12/17 18:$3M, 19:$7M 2019 performance bonuses: may earn up to $6M as a starter and up to $1M as a reliever That's my bad, I had it in my head he had a 5/5 split in raw dollars too and should've double checked. But yeah, for purposes that matter, 5 million -
If they don't get Harper or Machado, the path to a similar type of improvement is probably far less correlated with spending.
-
They were 11th in the NL in home runs last year with all those boys on the roster. And one home run off of first the year before that with the same cast of characters. I'm also told that the hitting coach last year was unpopular. Point being that if the primary thing you're worried about is home runs(since the team scored plenty of runs, had a high wRC+, etc), the players on hand already are going to make or break that, you aren't going to ship off Schwarber in search of more homers.
-
Cubs Picking Up Hamels Option, Trading Smyly to Rangers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it’s $7m Smyly makes 5 million. -
NEVER SETTLE FOR THESE DONGLESS SCUMBAGS. Your home runs uber alles campaign is going to some strange places. Wherever will an offense with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras find power?
-
Also, Buster's admitted source here is other teams' executives, which is like a half step more accurate than whatever fever dreams inform Nightengale's reporting.
-
My read is that the Cubs are restricted on spending inasmuch in that they're planning on dropping hundreds of millions on Bryce Harper despite having a perfectly good offense without him, so they'll have to do more work on the margins to fit in the relievers or an additional SP they want to do on top of that. Anyone who says 'they're already over the luxury tax, they're tapped out' is not connected to the reality that the Cubs have very clearly been gearing up to play for Harper(or, sigh, Machado) and nothing has changed in that regard.
-
Because moving a reliever like Kintzler who is on a 1/5 deal is not a particularly difficult thing to do if you need to.
-
I was wrong about this last year, but I would be very surprised if the luxury tax number went that low. I think it's a fair bit more likely it exceeds 40 than fails to reach 30.
-
yeah, 275 that's 300 in penalties is functionally a 100 million jump year over year. They have been waiting to go higher than last year and we'll have to see if we get any TV deal specifics soon, but I've been of the mind that 250 is probably on the high end.
-
I'm curious how high folks expected the payroll to jump. Before adding anyone at all they had a full roster that was right at the luxury tax, and getting Harper adds probably 35 million to that on the low end. Hamels is either 14 or 20 million more, and that still hasn't done anything to address the pen unless you count sealing Montgomery away from the rotation. Yes, Kintzler and Duensing(and in a different way Chatwood) are frustrating contracts to deal with in that light, but ultimately the 2 relievers at a combined 8.5 million aren't going to be the difference between a prince and pauper offseason.
-
[tweet] [/tweet]
-
Iglesias seems fine to me, but he’s only 28 and has been an average SS for 5 years, surely someone is gonna be more desperate to pay him than the Cubs are with Baez in tow.
-
Pat is already licking his chops at spending a whole half inning talking about this guy's name if he ever gets into a game.
-
Kintzler Team Option Declined, Exercises Player Option
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He was a garbage pitcher in 2017 (he had a K/9 under 5) and he’s been a garbage pitcher his whole career who has to rely on soft contact and praying to the BABIP Gods to have any kind of success. He horsefeathering sucks. He had 4 seasons of at least 20 IP prior to this year, with ERAs of 2.69, 3.24, 3.15, and 3.03. He's beating is career FIP but not by Tyler Clippard lengths or anything. That profile can go quickly, and signing up for 5 million this year was a risk, but it's disingenuous to say he's been a terrible pitcher getting by on luck. His walk and home rate doubled from anything he had ever done previously, sometimes that happens with relievers, especially those with Kintzler's skills(or lack thereof). -
Find someone who loves you as much as Theo Epstein loves picking up left handed relievers off waivers
-
Kintzler Team Option Declined, Exercises Player Option
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I fully expect he'll pick up the option, but if you want to give yourself hope, Kintzler is 34 and every season could be his last where he's employable. If he thinks he can even get the Duensing contract(2/7) from somebody, that might technically be in his best interest. That said he'll likely take the 5 million and bet on himself that he can turn things around to earn another deal. -
Even if we pretend Hamels’ August never existed(which is silly even if we don’t expect him to repeat that stretch) his September was 4 quality starts, another where he was one out short of a QS, and the one outing he had as a Cub where he got rocked. September Cole Hamels gets a decent amount of coin in free agency, and he flashed in August so you can dream on him as much as any other FA, plus the commitment is only one year unlike other FA. I’m not a Hamels enthusiast, so I’m not gonna campaign that he’s an obvious choice(lots of miles, HR prone, rotation already very left handed which could have downsides over a full year), but i also recognize the benefit of locking down the rotation without giving up huge years or trade assets so that the offseason puzzle gets simpler.
-
He's good, although in terms of overall value, good in the way that Happ or Almora can be good, compared to say, Bryant or Baez or Contreras. I mentioned it on draft night, but a good outcome would be the type of value that the Rockies have gotten out of Lemahieu.
-
Wouldn't the Cubs have to decline their end first? Yeah, the odds of that getting announced out of order are pretty low, even if the decision has hopefully been made by both parties for weeks.
-
The one thing I'd say to this is that part of the narrative here is that Chatwood is a year removed from being a fairly desirable FA SP, and his downturn appears to be a mental block(maybe helped by a change of scenery?) moreso than injury or loss of stuff. He's only 29 on opening day too, so I think you can make the argument his likelihood to rehab value is similar/better to Andrus. I don't expect that to be a universal sentiment, but I bet there's a handful of teams who would believe something close to that. Whether that's the Rangers is the question, because I do think in their position of not being very competitive next year, the idea of freeing up 15 million each in '21-22 is appealing enough to take on a few million bucks in post-prime relievers for 2019.
-
The Multi Inning Reliever Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to davell's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
No one is talking about making Edwards a starter, the thought is that since he was a starter through most of his minor league career and he wasn't converted because he failed at it, that he might be a good fit to be a multi-inning fireman. As far as injuries go, Edwards missed time with a shoulder injury this year and his command deteriorated dramatically over the course of the year. Could be nothing, but it would be very unsurprising that it turns out to be a harbinger of a significant injury. -
What is it you don't like about Leclerc? For this exercise/deal, he crosses into 'too good/valuable' territory.
-
Does anyone have much of an idea of what Texas's opinion of Andrus is right now? I was looking for shortstops with a big enough contract and low enough production that we might be able to get a new SS with no gain in payroll or better by having that be a dumping ground. Andrus is only a year removed from a 4 win season, but he's 30 now, has had a sub-.300 wOBA 4 of the last 6 years playing in Texas, and UZR describes him as more of a capable SS than gold glove caliber. For luxury tax purposes he has a hefty 4/60 left on his deal, does trading several short term contracts for him seem palatable for them? In a perfect world they like Chatwood and/or Russell's potential and they're willing to eat money this year to be done with Andrus' commitment, so you can get something like Chatwood, Kintzler, Duensing, and Russell(combined 25.5 million 2019, 12.67+Russell for 2020) for Andrus and a reliever(4/60+ reliever). That's likely fantasy(and the Rangers don't really have any interesting relievers left anyway), but it's day 1 of the offseason so I can dare to dream.
