Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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It's incredibly easy to talk me into good news re: Harper, but the Cubs being a short term deal favorite makes zero sense. 3 years is the window in which you have enough guaranteed money/arb years to worry about the luxury tax, and a short term deal is almost certainly higher AAV too. If the only reason they're avoiding Harper is because they're worried about his production or luxury tax concerns in years 6 through 10 then everyone with an office at Wrigley is fired.
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
What’s the late inning strategy after the SP is out that having the DH prevents from happening? The AL still pinch hits guys in matchup spots, managers still use multiple RPs there. It’s pretty much just the stupid double switch and that’s it? Or am I missing something? timing of relief pitchers w/r/t the pitcher's spot, whether or not to double switch, forced scarcity with pinch hitters, etc It's not some huge thing that makes up 50% of the game, but the other side of the aisle is getting worked up about pitchers getting less than 5% of plate appearances when the regular players make unproductive outs 60+% of the time too. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
More to the actual topic, tying the DH to the starting pitcher takes care of everyone's concerns except the most ardent 'why don't we just have 9 designated fielders' weirdos. No pitchers hitting and you still get the late innings strategy. That also has the side effect of dis-incentivizing the opener that most people seem to hate. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
[tweet] [/tweet] -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
It may prolong some careers though. How many? 3. It's a completely worthless thing for ownership to give up. MLBPA gains nothing with it. It's horrible negotiating to take something like this, since all the PR is going to be about how the owners gave up concessions in advance of talks, making it that much more difficult to "justify" a strike and make some real gains. It's a January rule change that Manfred himself mentioned was gaining ownership support last summer. It's a net positive for the game, probably a mild improvement to players by making a few FA more palatable and capturing a few arbitration dollars with the extra PA, not doing it just because you're worried about how it impacts the optics of a strike when the bad faith from owners is so visible and obvious would be silly. It's not like they can overhaul service time or the luxury tax with these pre-season rule tweaks. -
Yeah but they're trading us Cueto and his hair is so big they have to buy him an extra seat on all the flights, so they'll make it up in other ways.
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Are you excited for the Cubs start of the season
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CubinNY's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm pretty sad that I'm not excited, if that makes sense. -
More likely they had an extensive phone call that someone hearing about it second hand would abbreviate to 'met'.
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If it’s not Harper to the Cubs, then this is the next best thing.
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there has to be something on Netflix you can watch the pass the time, right
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
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what do you disagree with in that assessment Most of what he says about Hoerner, except for the part that basically contradicts itself. But that's part of the charm, it's nothing that's indefensible or you can't logic your way to, it's just that he talks like a normal prospect analyst that decided to use Kyle as a spokesperson.
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Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.
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I can't wait for their attempt to disguise it. Red Bull PR guy: hey high schoolers, you excited to meet Kris Bryant? We're gonna have you throw BP to see if any of you can strike him out! Kid 1: That's Bryce Harper Red Bull PR guy: How about you, you excited to face off with KB? Kid 2: He's got a huge beard and he's swinging left handed Kid 1: His jersey says Harper on the back Red Bull PR guy: GOTCHA! IT'S ACTUALLY BRYCE HARPER, HE SIGNED WITH THE CUBS, WOOOOAHHHHHHHHH
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He heard teams were dumpster diving and immediately retired so he could join a front office.
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'll pick on David since he's far from the worst offender, but the uptick of people in the minor league forum loudly proclaiming how much they don't care about the minor leaguers(or worse, loudly claiming no one should) is weird. It's okay to like prospects even when the team is good, and even if there isn't a system full of Kris Bryants to follow. If that's not your thing that's fine, the entire forum is partitioned off for your benefit! -
The second level of luxury tax penalties. I think it's a few million more than that(maybe that's leaving room for midseason), but for Twitter brevity purposes it makes the point. Also, I can tell Theo exactly where he could've found an extra 20 million but if I start thinking about it again I'm gonna choke on my tongue.
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I would rather have Almora than Castellanos. Steamer sees them as basically identical from a value perspective. Castellanos will have BABIP regression this year and go back to being an averagish bat with horrible defense who's past the age where we'd expect any marked improvement. Almora will at least have one standout ability with his defense, and has enough age and pedigree to think he can get back to the .330 wOBA or so that makes him an above average regular. He's also a much better fit on the roster since while Happ and Heyward are both capable of playing CF, neither is a natural at it.
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I would rather have Almora than Castellanos.
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We don't currently have the roster spots for that. So if true that means either a pitcher is dead that we don't know about, a pitcher is being traded, or we're going hard on the Dodgers' "shamelessly DL guys who aren't actually hurt" strategy. Between Morrow possibly (likely?) starting the year on the DL and not caring if they DFA Kintzler or Duensing, I don't think roster spots are an enormous concern.
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can you at least stick to being insufferable about the topic at hand and not hypothetical future conversations too
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Brach's success seems very closely tied to his velocity, and his velocity came back after a dip to start the year so I think he's as good a middle reliever bet as anyone. Morrow/Edwards/Strop/Cishek/Montgomery/Brach is very good depth, and a roll of the dice on health at the top end.
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Less about Pomeranz in particular, but any buy low candidate is going to be low for a good reason. You don't have to bank on 200 IP from Pomeranz or his proxy, but you also have internal options(Start Montgomery) and buy low options are easier to stack for cheap too.
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That is a super perfect illustration of why you don't give Hamels 20 million if you aren't going to go bonkers with the payroll.
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There is a chance Lester is in there too. 25 mill option with 10 mill buyout, option vests with 200 IP in '20 or 400 IP in '19 and '20 Rizzo's is technically an option too, but they aren't going to give 37 year old Lester that money. And he's at 180 IP each of the last 2 years so he's not gonna vest either.
