Transmogrified Tiger

If he becomes that good then an 8 year deal saves them a fair bit more than 10%, right? I don't have a good sense for what's 'right' in these cases since this type of deal is so rare, but if you think of it as 60 million for his team control years and 40 million for 2 FA years(which would be age 28-29 if it starts this year), that *feels* reasonable to me on both ends. Looking at the Betts trajectory, or where KB was on his way to before 2018, I think the realistic current ceiling on pre FA is something like 7/90. Those two obviously came into the league several years ago, so let's say with inflation more like 7/100 for a guy like Eloy coming in now? If he's a star this deal essentially gives you that first FA year free, which is great, but if he's anything less than that you're likely overpaying by a fair amount. It just seems like pretty high risk for one extra year at a modestly below market rate in 2026. Although if it's a real offer there's surely a few additional details that completely change the calculus. Most likely a club option or two. I'd guess that would bridge the gap. I think arbitration inflation has a chance to exceed that 10 million 4-7 years from now, but that's fair. Also worth noting that Eloy would be hitting arbitration on the other side of the new CBA, so there's a bit of risk minimization baked in too depending on what exactly pre-FA looks like then.

If he becomes that good then an 8 year deal saves them a fair bit more than 10%, right? I don't have a good sense for what's 'right' in these cases since this type of deal is so rare, but if you think of it as 60 million for his team control years and 40 million for 2 FA years(which would be age 28-29 if it starts this year), that *feels* reasonable to me on both ends.

It is an odd-numbered year https://www.mlb.com/player/jon-lester-452657?stats=career-s-pitching-mlb&year=2019

The "best" pace of play change is a pitch clock, because if you enforce it then it cures the pace and duration problems at once. Everything else(limiting shifts, pitching changes, roster limits, commercial breaks, etc) is small potatoes in comparison to the impact a pitch clock would have.

That was more entertaining than I thought it'd be. The sequence ending in "hey Jess are you employed?" was great.

did Almora punch you or a loved one in the face

ooh, more runway to avoid oversliding on steals is a good shout

What’s the intent around making the bases bigger? That’s a new one to me.

He’s not gonna do that with men on, there’s no balk risk

[tweet] [/tweet]

Marwin would have been the worst position player on the roster save for backup catcher, he had a great 2017 but he’s basically Descalso with better marketing and an (unnecessary to the Cubs) ability to play corner outfield.

if i remember correctly he had been pretty adamant about not wanting a job like that, but i am sure there are ways to make that work if a team really wanted him. i had kind of soured on him on effectively wild of late and hadn’t been listening for the last couple months. was there any indication anywhere this was coming? I hadn't listened to EW in months either(more being burnt out on baseball than him), I recently listened to a couple of the preview eps and didn't hear anything unusual. My guess is he wouldn't have telegraphed that move though.

Jeff Sullivan is joining the Rays, and I am sad.

Was at that game, can confirm.

My absolute favorites are probably Montero and Fowler. For one not mentioned yet, Russell basically guaranteeing there was going to be a game 7 was great.

I don't know if I've ever seen so many negatives in one of those graphics before. 25 wins worse than the Cubs projection, yikes.

...that clip does not at all look like he's swinging with a wider base

He was also either 4th or 5th among OF(depending on how you want to count Zobrist) in PA in the 2nd half. He was barely that low(all 4 non-Zobrist OF basically split PA equally), and he'll very likely get significant opportunity. But that'll likely come with his strengths(defense, facing LHP) first, especially with Descalso as the new Murphy and Russell not kicked to the curb forcing Zobrist to the OF more.

bWAR for hitters is created and maintained by Charlie Kelly.

The only acceptable time to sign a big free agent is if you won 81.7 games the previous year, less than that and you're too far away, more than that and you're gonna run out of money to pay your good players. It's science.

[tweet] [/tweet] 42 WAR for the Cubs graphic. I’m more bullish on the OF and bearish on the rotation, but overall that feels about right.

Well trading Zobrist would almost certainly be in service of getting a player of similar or better quality like Harper. In which case: Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Harper, and probably Schwarber are all likely to be equal or better to 2019 Zobrist, to say nothing of pitchers(Hendricks and probably at least 1 of Darvish/Q/Lester).

I guess, the IsoPs he tends to run are more borderline top 5 for a 3B. I admit a certain irrationality to my thoughts here too, but Machado feels like one of those guys who is capable of everything and has demonstrated it all in short bursts or in various years, but I don't think there's ever a version of him that is everything he could be(and is played up to be in a productivity sense). The best example of that is his defense taking a statistical nosedive when he filled out and actually started hitting for those power numbers. He's averaging ~5 WAR a season through his career, and unlike Harper he's doing it it without a lot of variability. What more do you want from the guy? The game is frikkin' hard. I don't think he's the other-worldly defender that he was early in his career and I don't think he's going to be a .370 wOBA guy consistently. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't clear 4 WAR more than once going forward, if at all. I also get the argument for Machado, I don't pretend I'm going to concretely convince everyone of my position.

hitting for power without being a 1B or corner OF? I guess, the IsoPs he tends to run are more borderline top 5 for a 3B. I admit a certain irrationality to my thoughts here too, but Machado feels like one of those guys who is capable of everything and has demonstrated it all in short bursts or in various years, but I don't think there's ever a version of him that is everything he could be(and is played up to be in a productivity sense). The best example of that is his defense taking a statistical nosedive when he filled out and actually started hitting for those power numbers.

I'm having a hard time articulating this well, but good for San Diego dropping cash, good for Machado getting paid, and boy do I still not believe in Machado as a star player going forward. The Padres can use all the help they can get so I don't want to make it a 'they'll rue the day' conversation, but there's still not one aspect of Machado's game I can look at and think 'ah yes, that's what he's elite at'.