Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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“pessimism is more rational than optimism” combined with single outing (AAA) velocity hand-wringing is a really unflattering look. What is your specific concern? That he’s hurt? The velo never coming back? That he’s not going to be classic Kimbrel right away? Only the last of those seem remotely reasonable to me, but that should have been the expectation from day 1 given he signed in June. Which to come back full circle, means that we don’t need to dissect every 2nd hand report of what Iowa’s radar gun is saying when it’s within a few mph of his normal. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value. I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect? The Defense value you see in the Fangraphs dashboard isn't adjusted for position, so you could use that to compare the relative contributions of Schwarber to say, Baez, if you really wanted to. UZR is going to be a bit more practical for most purposes, and it's further down the page: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF#fieldingadvanced Also I misspoke, it's +8.3 career, got the 8.8 from 2017 lodged in my brain. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on? Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value. -
LeMahieu has a career .111 Iso, so probably not the best example to trot out there. Matt Holliday would be a more clear illustration that Coors splits aren't to be taken seriously, because there's a hangover effect that depresses road numbers that doesn't exist elsewhere(essentially, you get used to curve balls not biting and don't pick them up as well on road trips). Plus the NL West outside of Coors is several pitcher friendly spots on top of that for a disproportionate amount of the away games.
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The slow, inevitable death of my fandom, I guess. It's been such a big part of basically my whole life, it's not something I can, or even want to just shrug off easily. But more and more it's becoming clear to me that this org brings me more frustration and negative feelings than positive ones, and that shouldn't be the case, especially having seen so many terrible, terrible seasons (in terms of baseball being played). I have been kicking this around in my head, and I think part of it is where the Cubs are in their competitive cycle. Even if I abstract away the off the field stuff, and even if I set aside that the increasing blurnsball-ization of the game isn't my favorite, you're left with what happened last year, an impossibly frustrating march to the end where I can't even remember if I cared to watch the wild card game. And I think that's because at this point, the expectations for the team are, rightly, to win, and to win a lot. That means that my baseline expectation is higher and more likely to end up in frustration when baseball's special brand of day-after-day reality sets in. It almost makes me wonder if having down years or rebuilding periods is a net positive for fandom, because if the expectations aren't to win 95+ games then you can be pleasantly surprised, there's more room for things to go right instead of going wrong.
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2019 Other Games Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Yeah, the ball landed in San Francisco Bay, not the ocean. Doesn't Muncy know anything? Jeeze. Current state: Ball in bay, completely out of sight Comment: Go get the ball and bring it back in sight and I'll stop looking at it. Nonsense. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/50689/the-best-thing-in-baseball-this-week-red-and-nude-and-madison-muncy-fight/ -
so will they tear down the Harry statue to make room for the Hamels statue, or will they just make it 3 times as big to give him the proper amount of recognition
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31 year old Goldschmidt(5/130 extension starting next year) is also on pace for a career-worst season, about 3 fWAR and a sub .350 wOBA.
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as I've said all along, Cole Hamels is a star and a bargain at twice the price
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The reasoning they've given is that Sargent has already proven himself at that level last cycle, and even if he just missed the cut(Berhalter's comments sounded like he might've made it if not for Lletget's injury hurting his planned roster flexibility) that opened the opportunity for other people to shine in the U20 WC(like Soto has).
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Javy beats that out without the heel injury
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The way I'm thinking of it is that by the end of the year I'm hoping for one of Edwards or Morrow to be healthy and in form. As long as there isn't any catastrophe with Kimbrel/Strop/Cishek, that means you have a really strong 6th inning on plan for the playoffs, plus some other arms that are potentially serviceable based on their history(Montgomery, Chatwood, Brach).
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Decent, but his strike out and groundball rates are still pretty disappointing given what he's done in the past. Promising, to be sure, but it's not like he's back to his old self. It is different, but in a good way. That FIP would be a career best, xFIP second only to his 36 IP in 2016. Yeah there aren't as many GB or K's, but the walks vanishing entirely more than makes up for it, plus HR rate back to career norms.
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Because the throw was coming from the inside?Should pretty much always field a throw at a base with your throwing hand foot on the base, IMO. If the out at 2nd is a foregone conclusion I can see the argument that it makes for a faster turn, but that play was so slow developing that you have to prioritize getting an out.
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Why is Baez fielding that throw with his left foot on the base
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Heyward saved a run there
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Not that it amounts to a hill of beans, but the guy just turned 31 like a week ago. lol, I read the 8 in his age on Fangraphs as months since it was right after years. Point still applies, but slightly better!
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Now that this is happening, I'll say that there's things to worry about with Kimbrel, from the long layoff, to being almost 32, to any reliever being a roll of the dice to a certain degree. However, for a very, very long time Kimbrel has been insanely good, so there's plenty of reason to be excited about a player of his quality stepping into the biggest void on the team.
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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I saw the Rosenthal tweet and knew I needed to come to this thread before it happened to mention that I'm paranoid Kimbrel is going to be terrible, between age and the super long layoff.
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Cashner is still pitching ten years later. Maybe I’m a soft grader but that class is a resounding scouting success in my book. Harrison was in that draft too, plus up and down guys like Campana and Flaherty. Going to have a lot of drafts less successful than that one, for sure.
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Watching people turn into Comic book guy about the first round pick is one of my favorite traditions.
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2019 Other Games Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
They should really plant a flag and play Let's Bash before the team takes the field. -
ChiCargo Cubs - AKA that bad man can't hurt you anymore
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
like I always say, can't spell Cargo's Dead Cat Bounce without Cargo -
The U-20 World Cup is wrapping up the group stage this week, and Honduras still had a chance to advance despite being 0-2 if they beat fellow 0-2 Norway and got a little help. Honduras....will not be advancing: https://www.fifa.com/u20worldcup/matches/match/400010584/#match-timeline
