Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5. Gotchya. You might be right, Cole Hamels' contract was pretty analogous and the full value of his option counted against the tax. I thought there was some weird thing where that only happened because we traded for him though, and the Rangers would have been on the hook for less. But we're definitely getting into the weirder more esoteric parts of the CBA at this point. If Jon does count $25M against the CBT next year no way that option is picked up. It's a bit weird because buyouts end up double counting when options are picked up to a degree, but I think that may be intentional to avoid teams getting too creative with shenanigans to lower their tax burden.
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I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that. Right, I believe if they pick up his option, it's a 1/15 deal for LT purposes. So I have the team about $10M under if they pick it up, and $25M under if they dont. I used fairly rough arb numbers though so it's purely directional. Ah, I'm saying the CBT burden if they pick it up is 25 and 0 if they don't. That's why Rizzo's burden is 16.5 this year and not 14.5.
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If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases). With rough arb numbers, I have the team about $10M below the tax next year if they pick up Lester's option, $25M if they don't. Knock both of those down ~$5M going from KB's fourth year of arb to Arenado. I think there's enough upper level pitching in the farm that you can reasonably count on it to fill one of the empty rotation spots. But then yeah you probably deal Contreras to fill one of the others. That in turn opens up another 7-8 mil, so you've got at least $10M to fill out the margins of the roster regardless of the Lester decision. If PTR is fine resetting the penalties next year (which honestly I doubt) next offseason is a much cleaner one for getting under. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I don't think they have any CBT responsibility for Lester if they don't exercise the option. That 10 million has been part of the 155 million guaranteed, and why his CBT number this year(and the 5 years prior) is 25.8 million and not less than that.
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If you assume you need to cover 10 million you didn't before, then you have Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood freeing up close to 50 million in CBT payroll. You can probably fill those spots for a fair amount less than 40 million. You can also finally pull the trigger on trading Schwarber or Contreras for further breathing room against arb increases(though those 2 and Baez are the only significant increases).
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- Coors has a documented hangover effect where hitters struggle to track pitches away from home since they move differently - The NL West outside of Coors trends to be pitcher-friendly, and that's where most of Arenado's road games come from - Arenado's park adjusted road performance is significantly above average compared to how the league performs on the road
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Would be a great time for Ricketts to employ that 'If Theo comes to me with an idea that would improve the team, I generally approve it' logic that he claims to have. If ever there was a move that would help the Cubs be competitive post-2021, which is what they claim to want, this is it. Setting that aside(since it's easily the preferred option), this is where it would have been useful to have done literally anything this offseason. You could've traded Contreras for pitching and signed a cheap C to beef up the pitching depth(making trading Chatwood more palatable). You could have added a starting caliber position player basically anywhere and made it possible to dump Heyward without creating a hole. Instead, in order to make this deal fit you have to believe in Souza as a starter in RF or Cotton/Mills/Alzolay as your answer to the 5th starter role.
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7-8 million per year in cash along with Arenado still adds 10 million to CBT payroll when traded for Bryant, which means you need to do some pretty heavy lifting to get under the tax line.
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That seems like looking for an outside the box solution when a normal one(lowering service requirements) would be preferred all around. Something like making 60 days the cutoff for a full year of service time, and removing a pre-arb year to make it 2 pre-arb/3 arb/FA feels like a decent first try at better balance without completely killing off the ability for small market teams to be competitive. -
I love good defense, but I think that probably makes the game go further in the blurnsball direction that it has the last couple years(by valuing power/home runs even more), which I definitely don't like.
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Mildly concerning velocity drop last year, but on the whole this looks like as much true stability that a FA reliever can bring for less than a million. Not a ton, but probably worthwhile given how many wild cards they've stacked up at the end of the pen.
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so you're saying the astros went fishing in the trash can for managers
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Because there is. How to sequence relievers and pinch hitters, when to sacrifice or double switch to optimize for the rest of the game, a big chunk of that goes away with a full time DH. You don't have to think it's some earth shaking difference, no one will tell you it's a completely different sport because of it. But on the other side of the coin, pitchers take like 4% of NL plate appearances, so there isn't some enormous cost being paid at the other end. And of course, tying the DH to the SP meets both goals and introduces other decision making elements around lineup and who plays DH.
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2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Probably Bote, maybe Descalso or Bryant. You're probably shuffling someone in from Iowa if Baez is out more than 48 hours even with Hoerner. -
2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
how does Scooter keep Almora off the roster? Only way I can see is if they flex Nico to be the RH CF option, but that seems really unlikely compared to just letting Nico get more AAA playing time. -
Tie it to the starting pitcher please.
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If he keeps getting these cameos I wouldn't be surprised to see him in March, especially since Weah's health is up in the air, Boyd fell off the face of the earth, and Morris could reasonably be held out with all the MLS + CCL fixtures on his plate.
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Castellanos to Reds 4/64 With Opt Outs
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Reds are basically the 2016-18 Cardinals at this point, probably a half step worse since their depth won't be as good. That'll be really irritating and if they get a bunch of stars to align they could get the wild card, but they aren't the favorite or even 2nd best team in the division. The team that has the most to worry about this is the Brewers, who look like they might become the 2016-18 Pirates. -
Cubs close to a deal with Steven Souza
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Banedon's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Probably gonna be some unhappy people when he ends up taking more at bats away from Schwarber than Heyward, but that's a future problem. Smart addition. -
Offseason Top Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Davis hit .306 with a .346 BABIP and a sub-20% K rate in full-season ball at age 19. The numbers aren't everything, but you would think if contact was going to derail him that those numbers wouldn't be as strong as they are. -
2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
20 innings is a lot of innings to make up when there's no extra starts involved, I'd be shocked if he automatically vests. But if he's pitching well enough and is healthy enough to hit 200 IP, picking up his option was probably more likely anyway. -
2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't see why not, Lester gets a guaranteed 2021 and more money out of the deal. That would also help stem rotationpocalypse a bit since they didn't get a longer term option this offseason. -
Just getting Bundesliga minutes at 17 is awesome, but to do it at a power like Dortmund, and in an attack that already has Haaland, Reus, Gotze, Sancho, Hazard, Paco Alcacer, and Larsen is outright crazy.
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We'll have to wait and see what the actual numbers look like, but if I were to ballpark it I'd guess the current Cubs come out about 4 wins ahead on the position players, 1-2 ahead on SP, and probably 2 down on RP.
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Always playing the contrarian aren't you? I never said it was a perfect analogy and the concerns aren't totally the same -- just that people had injury concerns about a young Blake Griffin and the way he played the game and that his career has been very good/productive. If Zion's career ends up going the same way as Blake's then I'm sure most people in NO will be very happy and take it. He's already a better outside shooter than young Blake. It's not a perfect analogy because no one in the NBA has been this large and this explosive an athlete... He's closer to an NFL player than an NBA player. Still, people have compared Zion Williamson to Blake Griffin, like Max Kellerman. A reasonable person would sign Zion up for Blake's career, but it doesn't make it less odd to say 'Zion may have injury concerns, but they did about Blake too' when those injury concerns ended up being very real. It's a bit of a "they very much did kill Jesus" sorta comparison.
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Blake only turns 31 in March, and this year will be the 4th year in 5 that he's missed 20+ games, plus he missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury. Tough to take the 'he only broke down with age' as accurate or reassuring compared to Zion.
