Transmogrified Tiger

MLB.tv blackouts were never about attendance? I don’t even recall that being floated as an excuse, it’s to prop up local tv deals that bring in a huge chunk of the league’s revenue.

They're in a Europa League spot right now. I was under the impression it was a tight 11 because they can't afford a deep bench. Is that not the case? It looks like they have better odds than I thought, I forgot about the FA Cup granting a Europa League spot and since the finalists all have higher positions in the table it gives them more margin for error. For Wolves' 11, its' a bit of both. They don't have as much depth as the big clubs for money reasons, but even relative to their peers they keep things tighter. There's 126 field players with 2000+ EPL minutes this year, Wolves have 10 of them and no other team has more than 8. And that's in a year where they're still alive in the Europa League too. They've done a lot of sports science investment to try to keep their core guys on the field more instead of rotating and risking results.

Wolves would be a very good situation for McKennie. The biggest downside is if they don't end up in Europe(right now it looks like they'll need Man City to lose their appeal), they typically play with a pretty tight 11 so playing time might be more sparse than we'd like.

TSS thought that Southampton(who is going in on RB-esque pressing chaos) would be a particularly fun fit for McKennie. Going to a superclub would be worse than where he is, but pretty much anywhere else(like Hertha Berlin or Newcastle) that's more realistic would likely be better than whatever Schalke is trying to be. I'm less worried about Dest because I think he's capable of that level in fairly short order. You want the right situation so he's not deputizing some 24 year old superstar for years but I don't have any name-brand fear about his future home.

MLS comes back tomorrow! It’s a fun league and if you’re in this thread you should watch it. I put a preview together for some Euro-based coworkers and thought I’d adapt it here in case others find it worthwhile. If you haven’t followed MLS before, the competitive environment is a mix between the NFL’s parity and MLB’s correlation between money and winning. That means the teams that spend typically stay high up the standings, but the cap suppresses things enough that you don’t have to rebuild for years just to be competitive. For this world cup-style tournament, FC Dallas has already been kicked out for having a bunch of Covid positive tests, which is a bummer(outside the obvious health concern) since they have a bunch of promising American youth players who we won’t see. If you’re just in this out of desperation for sports or only normally watch the world cup: Frontrunning teams: LAFC, NYCFC, Seattle, Toronto Trendy sleeper teams: Columbus, Colorado, Deep cut sleepers: Cincinnati, Chicago Players who you’ll see on the US National Team: Jordan Morris and Cristian Roldan in Seattle, Jackson Yueill in San Jose, Miles Robinson in Atlanta, Brendan Aaronson in Philadelphia, Aaron Long for New York Red Bulls, and probably a half dozen others I’m forgetting(Dallas would’ve had 4 names alone were they playing) If you mostly watch European leagues, the best quality soccer is likely to come from teams like LAFC, NYCFC, and Seattle, though there isn’t a Juve v. the pack quality as mentioned above. Some foreign players you might see in those Euro leagues soon: - Atlanta has the former South American player of the year(Pity Martinez) and an expensive young Argentinian(Ezequiel Barco) that they want to follow Almiron’s path of starring in Atlanta as attackers before being sold - Christian Pavon is a regular for Argentina and if he can find form with LA Galaxy he’ll likely get sold on - With Vela opting out of the tournament, LAFC will be relying more on their wingers Diego Rossi(heavily linked to Italy) and Brian Rodriguez to be stars

exactly what I mean, you’re so afraid to say ‘they shouldn’t have to change the Braves’ even though that’s clearly what you’re alluding to that you have to play 20 questions around the definition of an ‘ethnic group’, or do an ‘I know you are but what am I’ dance w/ imb

hey maybe not a great idea to play coy semantical games to get people to guess your opinion and then argue with the parts they don’t guess right

88 million dollars for Kepa, incredible

The screen he was throwing at illuminates the velocity. It's a bit hard to catch at that angle, but it's unmistakably saying 96 for that pitch in the video.

In the replies he implies he has had further conversations with the org that seem to rule out being added later.

It sounds like a situation where Minch would be justified to be frustrated by the situation he's in, and the org penny pinching minor leaguers is ultimately the cause that should have been addressed. How much of what happens from there is Minch not having the right value for himself compared to the front office misleading him would depend on the specifics of what and when those conversations happened.

Yeah, I’m a little worried about the repeat injury history for Pulisic, Adams, and Steffen.

I don’t believe this 1000%, but I think you can make the case the national team is as good as it’s been since the peak of the Bradley era. The justifiable frustration at not qualifying and the people in charge of US Soccer, plus Berhalter not caring one bit about the scoreline in friendlies has obscured that they were pretty dominant in competitive play. You have 4 guys getting regular run for champions league teams(plus a half dozen others are regulars in EPL or Bundesliga) and the domestic league is as strong as it ever has been. The pool is insanely young too so you’re likely to get step change improvement instead of tiny marginal gains. Boy do they really need a number 9 to emerge and maintain their level for a bit though, ‘hold your breath and hope Jozy’s body holds up’ is not a great 2022 strategy.

I don't buy that on Abraham - his movement off the ball is atrocious. Pulisic looked really good yesterday - almost DeBruyne like with the ball. Last I heard was Chelsea was no longer in on Havertz. Abraham's non-penalty Goals/90 is 6th in the league(between Mane and Auba) and non-penalty xG is 3rd(behind 2 guys who missed time in Jesus and Aguero). As far as off the ball work, Giroud isn't a top line striker any longer, but he's no slouch at the dirty work and the team is way better when Abraham is in there. This isn't to say that Abraham is a decided superstar, but I'd probably spend a bit less than 150 million on giving him competition given the number of other spots on that team that are just okay.

They're in on Havertz too? Did Abraham spit in Lampard's face or something? I get that to a certain extent that's life at a big club, but responding to Abraham being a top 5 EPL striker(by both non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG, plus they are way worse w/ Giroud playing) by bringing in Werner and Havertz is insanity to me.

Mount is maybe the tryhardiest player I've ever seen. As a USMNT fan and nominal Liverpool supporter, today is a good day.

I'm not sure there's all that big an advantage to the runner on 2nd being particularly fast. If they're so fast they're going to be a difference maker then they have to be excellent odds to steal 2nd if they got in in the 9th. Even a .275 OBP with 80% odds stealing 2nd and 30% odds of driving him in is a 7% chance of scoring w/ 2 outs, none on in the 9th. Not sure the odds of scoring go up 7% in the 10th with that guy on 2nd v. someone else considering they're there with no outs. As an aside, this is why if you're going to put runners on base to start the inning, a single runner on 2nd is dumb since it encourages a singular outcome(1 run) that persists the tie. Load the bases with no outs and you have a flatter bell curve of outcomes and you're more likely to break the tie.

top of my head, I think I'd go v RHP KB Rizzo Baez Schwarber Contreras Heyward Happ Caratini Hoerner v LHP KB Rizzo Baez Contreras Souza Bote Schwarber Almora Hoerner I could probably be talked into Kipnis over Hoerner against RHP or Caratini over Schwarber v. LHP, and that would assume there's a third catcher lowering the risk of constantly having 2 in the lineup.

A DH over a full season is adding about 300 PAs worth of playing time that didn't really exist, in the sense that those PA were inaccessible to position players. That's mostly 'more jobs' in the marginal sense that it adds up to a small benefit spread across a bunch of teams and players.

Possibly, 15 minutes is a long time when you're getting it in short bursts. I also haven't seen if there's been any official word on ways the rules might change to promote distancing. Also screw football I hope it never comes back but that's neither here nor there. when you look at stats like "time of possession", they show you how long certain players are likely to be next to other players. Its generally around 20-40 minutes. I know guys move around on the field, get covered by other defenders, etc, that limits that time to some extent, but that may only INCREASE the likelihood of spread by putting players in close contact to more people even if for short times. Well to start with you can cut that in half because there aren't two-way players. But the whole thing about duration is that while it is possible for a single person to exhale once and that has droplets that end up infecting someone, it doesn't reach a reasonable standard of high risk for transmission. And again, these players are getting constantly tested which shrinks the risk further. I would say football and basketball are the most risky, but the exact degree of risk pales in comparison to risk of exposure off the field, to Judas' point.

Duration. it's not that you ever get within 6 feet of someone, it's that you need 15+ minutes of that proximity. Yes, transmission is still possible without sustained exposure, but non-zero risk isn't the same as significant risk. nfl players spend most of the game in huddles, in formation close to another player, even during the play they are generally running with the same player over and over and over and.... I'd call that significant duration Possibly, 15 minutes is a long time when you're getting it in short bursts. I also haven't seen if there's been any official word on ways the rules might change to promote distancing. Also screw football I hope it never comes back but that's neither here nor there.

I wont bore you with the site but: COVID-19 is believed to spread mainly from person-to-person, between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet) or through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. https://covid19.wustl.edu/health-safety/ how does that not happen in, say, the nfl? Duration. it's not that you ever get within 6 feet of someone, it's that you need 15+ minutes of that proximity. Yes, transmission is still possible without sustained exposure, but non-zero risk isn't the same as significant risk.

I don't think the nature of the sport has much to do with it coming back or doing so successfully. All of the stated plans involve such constant testing that you have a much lower surface area for exposure while practicing/playing, and most sports do not or barely meet the criteria to be risky for transmission.

This is at least half playing devil's advocate, but I think you can make the argument that you should order based on record, but reverse the order for non-playoff teams(best non-playoff team drafts #1, worst record drafts 18th). The thinking being: - Both the current draft and IFA are investments in long term success, a team's outlook for at least the next 2 years has very little to do with their draft pick except in rare circumstances. The team with the worst record in year 1 has a similar ability to improve in year 2 whether they draft 1st or 15th(heck the draft isn't until after the ensuing offseason happens anyway) - In a world with draft pools(which I'll assume as a practical exercise are here to stay) draft position carries extra meaning because it's not just the difference between drafting 4th and 2nd, it's the difference in the money that can get spread across many players. If you have draft pools, you need to change the incentive to maximize them. By flipping the record order, you force people to make their MLB teams better and more watchable in the short term if they also want to have the maximum chance to make the team better in the long term. Crucially, this is not an either/or financial proposition because higher draft pools are a drop in the bucket financially. - This has the knock on effect of making MLB free agency more competitive. Teams right now can spend nothing on the MLB team, cycle through cheap roster flotsam to try to unearth an asset or two(think Valbuena and Coghlan from the Cubs rebuild), but remain bad enough to maximize their prospect spending to get a wave of prospects worth supplementing with free agents or high contract trades. If teams are incentivized to make their short term fortunes better in order to maximize their long term futures, then prices rise for that FA lower/middle class that has recently taken a big hit. - The MLB draft and IFA are still lotteries in their own right so even a team doing their best and still failing miserably can still draft/sign smartly and improve their fortunes. Plenty of valuable and even star players come outside the Top 5 so you aren't resigning a bad team to an indefinite fate of being terrible. Plus they can always just go into Dombrowski mode and use any prospects as currency until they're able to get out of the hole somewhat.

yes, there has to be some significant reward for finishing first. 16 does not suggest byes though. 8 divisions of 4 would lend itself to them pretty easily. With everyone under the DH and smaller divisions you could realign more optimally for geography too.