Transmogrified Tiger

We got a handful of pitchers who maybe, potentially will put up more WAR combined in way more innings than Darvish will do by himself, a Schwarber clone without the memories, a worse and older backup catcher, and 4 teenagers who won't sniff Wrigley until the few remaining good players we have are sold off or washed up. Yay. I'm not a huge fan of the specific players involved here, but to play devil's advocate, I think we've got a bit too much recency bias with how Darvish's production is being assumed. He was phenomenal last year, but consistency has never been his hallmark, and (relatedly), neither has pitch economy which will likely play a big factor in how much value he can accrue this year in particular. ZiPS has him at 3.1 fWAR in 151 IP this year, and while I don't think it's way off, I think it's closer to being optimistic than pessimistic. There's more than a few potential outcomes where Davies' durability plus a small tweak or Arrieta getting a second wind out of Philly lead to either of them outproducing Darvish(the biggest injury risk of the group) alone, never mind the rest of players Darvish's money may have been put towards. My biggest criticism of Hoyer's offseason so far has been the shape of the returns he's gotten and the players he's targeted. Some of it is more understandable than others, I can kinda see the approach to this season's pitching being a one off in terms of getting across the 2021 bridge where no one will be able to add maximum value and on the other side you have clarity about the position player core + the farm system in a full season. So even though I'd rather have had folks with more team control or a likely future beyond 2021 than Davies and Arrieta, I can live with it. Similar things could be said about Joc too, and my feelings that the Darvish return is appropriate value but should have been on average closer to MLB is still true.

Keith you got people worked up by repeatedly comparing his lack of power to Juan Pierre, then tried to whitewash it with this generic 'guess I was right your team's prospect wasn't a star' schtick when he doubled that level of IsoP at every level, including MLB.

His value is heavily tied to him being able to hit singles, he hasn’t graded out particularly well defensively, and most importantly, the Twins have Andrelton, Polanco, and several other players near MLB ready in middle infield. a .480 SLG indicates he’s doing more than slapping singles It’s a .130 IsoP since that line has a .350 AVG. A .130 IsoP is easily below average for a 2B, and that’s his best split since his overall IsoP runs just under .100.

With his slash line and age, I'm not sure why he would be available. His value is heavily tied to him being able to hit singles, he hasn’t graded out particularly well defensively, and most importantly, the Twins have Andrelton, Polanco, and several other players near MLB ready in middle infield.

Skepticism about the individual players or the org's real investment in winning are more than fair, but the idea that platoons or part time roster spots are signs of a weaker offense are missing the evolution that has happened over the last few years. As an example, let's look at the Top 5 offenses from different years(by wRC+), and on average how many 500+ PA players and 600+ PA players they had: 2010: 3.2 600+ PA players, 6.3 500+ PA players 2016: 3.4 600+ PA players, 5.2 500+ PA players 2019: 1.8 600+ PA players, 4.8 500+ PA players

I think they've mostly got the league they want leading up to the world cup, and they'll be exploring how to combine with Liga MX in more significant ways. The smallest version of that is basically a beefed up Leagues Cup, but you could imagine a world where you have a MLS/Liga MX Super League with 10 teams from each league(probably closed or mostly closed), and then a separate MLS(which would have a more manageable 18-22 teams after further expansion) and Liga MX(whose 2nd tier is dying and would consolidate to a single league). If they go small, you could see more teams leading up to 40 with basically 2-3 distinct leagues/conferences that have less overlap(greater emphasis on Open Cup, playoffs, continental play, etc) or mayyyybe something resembling pro/rel.

so, reduces home runs without decreasing strike outs? Seems pointless to me. strike outs are boring - home runs aren't. Those things don't happen in a vacuum, Home runs and strike outs are correlated even if it isn't a perfectly linear relationship.

I would far prefer a dead ball to the blurnsball we've been getting. Doubly so this year since pitchers will be fighting greater fatigue as the season goes on.

You know things are going well when Boomer’s halftime talking point is “there are too many penalties leading to points for Tampa”.

Right now ZiPS has the Cardinals with 3 players projected for more than a .320 OBP, and without the DH they can only play 2 of them at a time(by contrast, the Cubs have 8, which doesn't include Baez). Good to remember since a lot of the benefits from pitcher value, especially at the highest end with aces, are going to be diluted this year with folks not being able to handle the workload after such a light 2020.

It's been a couple years since CCL changed their format, so they decided it was time for a change starting in 2023: https://www.concacafchampionsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-champions-league-to-expand-with-innovative-new-format-starting-2023-24 - going back to group play, with group play happening in the fall - Mexican/US/Canadian teams are all put into 4 groups of 5, with the top 2 in each group plus 3 third place teams(via a playoff) advancing to the knockout round - Central America and Caribbean each have a separate group stage/play-in that gives them the other 4 and 1 spots in the knockout round respectively. I think this is generally a positive change, it means CCL games are mostly going to be marquee matchups but without completely locking out the small country minnows. The date change seems to be with an eye on avoiding the problem with MLS starting their season with CCL and being way more out of form compared to Mexican teams. On the other hand, since this doesn't replace stuff like the Leagues Cup(in fact, Leagues Cup is tied to a spot(s) in the group stage), it means there's a lot more fixtures to go around, will be interesting to see how teams manage and prioritize.

That was a really good read. I'm a little surprised he didn't mention that Hendricks is fairly unique in that he also employs 2 changeups like he employs 2 fastballs. Because in theory even if he tunneled perfectly if you knew his count tendencies you could just guess right on changeup, but since the changeup can move either direction, you get weak contact galore, like the article proves.

the ole 6-2-2 feat. Mason Mount as a forward I know CHO is really a winger but lemme have my dumb joke

Yeah I think the Hazard comparison is a sharp one. Both Chelsea and the USMNT plan on being on the front foot where being a target man probably is less important(and Chelsea will have better high targets on the field with Werner and/or Havertz), but I think he's good enough in tight spaces to be a back to the goal facilitator as much as you'd want in that position. Plus he'd be Deluxe Zardes in front of goal with his runs and finishing. [tweet] [/tweet]

Is that how he plays for the national team? With Berhalter I think he's been more of a wide creator or more of a pure 10. That said, if he can do that(I'd be a little worried about him getting hurt again fighting center backs every week) that would be an elegant solution to the USMNT's #9 dilemma, since the winger pool is a lot further along than the strikers.

Yeah I saw that earlier and nearly got whiplash. I think I get the combination of logical ideas that would lead to that end result, but it really does not land.

Schalke figuring out how to not lose valuable players on a free, just in time to get relegated and lose a bunch for pennies on the dollar anyway.

This is the type of thing you see in a video game and scoff at for the lack of realism, but it makes a strange amount of sense. Long did not have a good 2020 though so you'd hope being in a better side and away from the weird pandemic schedule would get him back to form. This was my thinking exactly. If you want a competent body that follows orders and executes but will cost you pretty much nothing, it's a great move. As someone who wants Aaron Long to play regularly, it's a bad move. He can absolutely do a job, and tide Liverpool over with their depth issues, but once those issues clear up, he'll be stuck to the bench (if he's lucky enough to make the bench). He's 28 and a mid-table talent, but as long as he's getting 90 minutes every week next season (for world cup qualifying), might as well give yourself the satisfaction of wearing that jersey for a while. I think the benefits of raising his game and getting into the English ecosystem balance out the likelihood he isn't a locked in starter or gets trapped in limbo once everyone's healthy. I'm also not a particular Long enthusiast or detractor w/r/t the national team though, and he seems to have dipped below Miazga in Berhalter's pecking order even before this move, so you can make the argument this is him rolling the dice it's his best chance to make an impression before the likes of McKenzie, Richards, Miazga, or others knock him off the depth chart permanently.

This is the type of thing you see in a video game and scoff at for the lack of realism, but it makes a strange amount of sense. Long did not have a good 2020 though so you'd hope being in a better side and away from the weird pandemic schedule would get him back to form.

Getting off subject here, but Hoerner vs Bote is a weird case of 'are we rebuilding' vs 'are we trying to make the playoffs'. Because I'll take Hoerner in 3-5 years, but I'd need to see a lot more than what I saw last year to give him the starting nod over Bote at second in a 'trying' year. Yeah you can play around with things a bit(Hoerner v. Bote, Joc v. Bote, Hoerner v. scrap heap LH 2B, Heyward v. Ervin against LHP), and obviously over a full season the playing time won't neatly reflect the baseline lineup. But I was encouraged that there's a strong baseline and that these decisions are mostly around who the 7th or 8th best hitter is in your 'normal' lineup. Having said this I fully expect Contreras to be traded for 3 shares of GME by Tuesday.

I'll have to get over my Dodger-based dislike for him, but this made me feel a little bit better: [tweet] [/tweet] Damning with faint praise of course, but Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Joc/Bote, Heyward, Hoerner is the best lineup in the division, and if it's not it'll be because the tentpoles failed which means there probably wasn't a good way to make it successful in 2021 regardless of circumstances like payroll.

Aaronson gets the start and an assist for Salzburg after coming off the bench in their first game after winter break. Morris makes the 18 for Swansea's first game after signing.

The Reynolds stuff is really cool, though I hope folks who don't watch a lot of MLS don't get their hopes up for him too soon. He was good but I would say not up to the standard Reggie Cannon set, and from a pure performance standpoint you could probably make the case he wasn't as good as 5 or even 10 other RBs in MLS. He's really raw and even though weird stuff can happen(e.g. McKennie), I would wholly expect him to need to go on loan at a level below Serie A.

The Athletic's longform does touch on a couple things that are probably bigger than Lampard or the manager role, I was struck by the bit about refusing to entertain signing Declan Rice because of the optics of signing a former released academy kid. But yeah, Lampard had questionable credentials heading in, and while last year and playing the young kids are to his credit, there was little to think that he was moving in the right direction even after huge investment, and last year isn't such a big feather in his cap that you could be optimistic that things were gonna get better.

All that said, Tuchel with Chelsea's roster could end up being really fun. Maybe a little too late to do anything but stop the bleeding and try to get back into Europe, but next year they could be legitimate contenders.