Transmogrified Tiger

So with that the roster questions start to narrow further: - Hermosillo v. Heyward for the last bench OF spot - Mills v. Steele in the rotation. Both probably make the team either way and could both start in a piggyback or 6 man so this is more symbolic than it is immediately consequential. - The pen shakeout. Barring injury, Givens/Wick/Robertson/Martin/Norris should be locks, Effross and Thompson probably have to pitch their way off the roster especially given the expanded April, which leaves 2 spots for the NRI crew(Chavez, Holder, St. John, Gsellman, Yardley) and the AAA group(Rodriguez, Rucker, Roberts, Leeper, Ueckert, Mekkes, Little).

One wrinkle on Sunday that will be a little different than last night for us fans is that the US plays after the Canada and Costa Rica games are done. The Panama draw means Canada can only drop to the playoff and only in a truly insane combination of blowouts from 3 different teams, but CR going to El Salvador first creates some different interests/goals by kickoff: CR wins: Nothing changes for the US, a win functionally qualifies, a draw guarantees top 4, and a loss makes for a white knuckle trip to San Jose. Mexico needs to be careful going to Honduras without Alvarez and maybe Tata, since a loss puts them in a position for randomness to send them to the playoff or maybe worse. CR draws: US is now guaranteed in with a win and functionally qualified with a draw, and a loss is still pretty dicey. Mexico breathes easier knowing the likely US/Panama result CR loses: The US is guaranteed in with a draw, and Mexico breathes that much more easily On that note, CR has been decent on the road so far, 1-2-3 W-L-D so far. El Salvador is also 1-2-3 at home, but the losses were to Canada and Mexico. El Salvador didn't bring their strongest squad(at the very least Alex Roldan stayed in Seattle with a playable knock) so we'll have to see how representative that past and their road draw from last night ends up being now that they're formally eliminated.

Adams avoiding the yellow is the most important card result, don't really care about Yedlin's suspension and while I love Weah, we can do just fine without him with the current squad. A little worried about the midfield since Acosta and Musah went 90, but Panama at home is a solid fit for LDLT. Win against Panama and you're in unless Costa Rica houses us in the last game.

legit 5 yellow card worthy fouls from Alvarez now, come on

Canada has had some legit chances for being down a man, need to convert one

why do multiple center backs look like they're coming on

Edson Alvarez is today's 'commit 4 yellow card worthy fouls, earn 1' award recipient. Smart money was on Herrera so this is a big upset

thank goodness Chucky never saw a shot he didn't love

Mark Anthony Kaye has always played dumb, never had it hurt me before, not a fan Honduras getting the draw means even with a loss today, a draw against Panama guarantees at least 4th. We had the better chances in the first half, hopefully they maintain as elevation wears in the 2nd half and get the winner and give ourselves a bunch of breathing room.

Shaq Moore is getting called in. It won't happen but especially if he's the 6th midfielder in the pecking order I'd play Roldan there.

Honduras equalizer!

Weah sandwiched in the same spot after touching past the last of the defense, nothing, sigh

that's a yellow huh

Same. I’m already getting angry. Or the anger is carried over from Michigan losing, one of the two FYI the game is also on Univision and CBS Sports Network if you have access to either of those.

Jamaica and El Salvador draw, which officially eliminates both. Panama with a first half goal on Honduras, so probably no unexpected help coming there.

get a lead, bring on Sands for Adams and Arriola/Morris for Pulisic to defend in a 5 back, profit

For those of you interested in shooting the moon, this ESPNFC editor says if one of Mexico or the US win out, they get the last Pot 1 spot if Portugal lose or win in penalties against North Macedonia:

Their CBT payroll is over 30 million higher than last year, it took me a minute but here's where it went Graveman 8 Kelly 8.5 Lynn ext +8 Harrison 5.5 Velasquez 3 Giolito arb +3 Garcia ext +2 Hernandez FA -2 Rodon FA -3 Putting half of your net spend into relievers when you have Hendriks, Kimbrel, Bummer, etc, when you're going to give a zillion at bats to Harrison, Garcia, Gavin Sheets, etc is certainly a choice.

If we win and Panama loses, Canada only needs a draw to guarantee qualification for the US, we'd be 7 clear of both Panama and CR in that instance. We clinch top 4 with a win and a CR draw/loss or a Panama loss. Your third scenario is right.

After his rookie year, Frazier had a very healthy line for multiple seasons through the pandemic shortened campaign, a total of 447 PA, 20 HR, .267/.351/.485, 123 wRC+. His best year came in the same year he raked in ST, though it was 2020 so I'm not sure what inferences we can draw given the 4 month gap. Still, a promising start for hopes of him being an OF/DH masher.

I think you've got this pegged. International soccer makes it tough to build cohesion(remember: Canada had a bunch of extra games as a group because they didn't auto-qualify for the ocho), especially with a group as young as ours that can't lean on past experience. The compressed schedule makes it even harder because you have to do some rotation or pay the price. Also Berhalter demands a certain amount of precision for that system, and since it's pretty risk-averse/defense-first the consequences are greater and he's more hesitant to break in new players during these crucial games. I do think Berhalter's approach will ultimately be vindicated and already has to a degree. He's won 2 of 3 tournaments(with the loss being understandable/forgivable for several reasons) and I think the above approach has been proven by others to be the effective, if frustrating, way to maximize international success(see: France, Portugal, etc) when you have a talent edge and when you're the underdog. But the reality of Canada's rise means that the margins are more fine than they've ever been, so they'll need to take care of business at home one last time. And for all the hand-wringing online about the US's lack of success in Mexico and CR, Panama is 0-3 with -8 GD (0 scored) in qualifiers on US soil since 2000.

The funny thing about this is basically all of the difference between the two is in the 2 head to head matchups(both of which the US had the upper hand but couldn't finish). Outside H2H, Canada is on 21 points and +12 GD (16/4), and the US is on 20 points with +11 GD (15/4). Admittedly that probably changes in the final window given the opponents, but that doesn't change the disconnect in results v. perception to date.

My main concern as it relates to qualifying is making sure a thinner first choice roster has the right amount of rotation, since Mexico is the least important game but also is a big rivalry and comes first, there's risk in not getting it right. With Reyna going 90 minutes last week I think that helps ease concerns about the wingers, between him, Pulisic, and Weah you can fill the 540 minutes with strong players that aren't run ragged. That said I wouldn't mind Morris starting tomorrow for his speed on the break and to make sure those 3 are in the best shape possible for Panama/CR. The outside backs are less of a concern with Dest out because RB you have several similar options and at LB Robinson has shown he can be productive playing all 3 games(though again, Bello against Mexico wouldn't be the worst thing). GK and CB are non-issues in terms of rotation IMO. Striker I just don't know, Ferreira is in the best form and his skillset will be the best for Panama, but if the CR game matters they won't be bunkering so having Ferreira's pressing would be useful. I'm probably fine whatever the choice is here but if they want to throw Pepi or Pefok out against Mexico that's probably the move that optimizes qualification. And then there's the midfield. Adams can't play against Mexico or definitely can't start, he's a yellow card from suspension and he's too important to not have in the game that functionally guarantees qualification. I'd start Sands since we'll be defending a lot and he plays a fair amount of CB anyway. Then you have Musah, Acosta, and LDLT for the other 2 spots. I'd probably go Musah/Acosta then Musah/LDLT and hope you're qualified. Subbing Musah where possible in those games and you can maybe start him all 3.

Because the USMNT fanbase is equal parts toxic and paranoid.