Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Looking at the pots and rules a bit more, there's a couple key inflection points that I can see. The most obvious is getting drawn with an AFC team(63% chance), especially if you can do so in Pot 1 or 3(50%). The other is if you can get drawn with one of the weak CAF teams in Pot 3, Tunisia or Morocco(25%). Neither of those 2 had to beat anyone of any quality to qualify, and aside from Tunisia slipping past underachieving Nigeria 1-0 it didn't happen in AFCON either. That would make the shoot the moon outcome a group like Qatar, Morocco, Wales. The other key is quite frankly, avoiding Senegal in Pot 3. The other 7 are either the above AFC and CAF teams or they're Euro teams which makes Qatar or a truly weak Pot 4 draw like Saudi Arabia more likely. Senegal is the best Pot 3 team, doesn't keep you from 2 additional Euro teams and makes it very likely you're not getting an AFC team, so it's the land mine. On a similar note, it's very funny to see that those things above are the key to Canada avoiding some really insane groups of death. Running the simulator a few times I see groups like Spain/Croatia/Senegal/Canada or Brazil/Switzerland/Poland/Canada, which would be absolute bloodbaths.
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Why would CBS keep them from joining sooner, they'd have to pay more in rights and they didn't want to do that right away?
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It looks like the only other shared-host world cup was 2002, and they put both Japan and South Korea in Pot 1. That was before they made it a pure FIFA rank for all pots, so Pot 2 was all UEFA, Pot 3 was CONMEBOL + AFC, and Pot 4 CONCACAF + CAF
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The spirit of your point remains, but Poland is in Pot 3 too. I’m less worried about 2 UEFA teams than I am of drawing Poland and/or Wales instead of the more manageable teams in those pots. Outside of Qatar there isn’t a huge difference between drawing France or drawing Brazil. If you made me pick one non-Qatar team for the group I guess it’d be Spain?
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In more forward facing news, now we can look forward to how terrifying the draw will be on Friday. Fully expecting some nonsense like Brazil, Senegal, Wales
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Also the US scored more actual goals than any team save Canada(and that 2 goal difference was entirely in the h2h), so it’s not like it was all underlying numbers with no production.
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
That’s in the minors, not the Dodgers system -
I don’t see the downside right? Maybe pisses off their club teams a little but at the end of the day we haven’t clinched however unlikely it is for Costa Rica to score 6 times on the US. There's a couple guys who have injury histories that I think you consider not starting to make sure you don't overdo it with their workload. Pulisic is an easy one in that regard, just go with Weah and Morris or Arriola(assuming Reyna isn't ready to go 60+). Adams is the other one that's a bit trickier given how important he is to their defensive success. Maybe start him but he's a for sure halftime sub as long as they aren't down 3 or something. Everyone else I don't see an issue, though there's a couple other guys you could rest(Jedi, Musah) if you wanted to do more of a B team.
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2022 Spring Training
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brian's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Rivas is optionable and honestly I don't really rate him so that's the easy choice for me. -
Canada might be into Pot 3 now with Ghana slotting in behind them instead of Nigeria barely in front. They should also be pulling for Mali and of course North Macedonia. Speaking of which, Portugal took a lead, so the USA to Pot 1 dream might die at step 1.
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There are laser pointers everywhere in this Senegal/Egypt qualifier, I'm almost afraid if Egypt gets a penalty it's going to turn the whole thing into a farce.
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The official website looks like it localizes it for your location if you scroll down: https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022 So the 4 group stage time windows appear to be 5 AM/8 AM/11 AM/2 PM Eastern time. Qatar doesn't do daylight savings but they seem like they're accounting for that if my time zone math is right. Knockout stage games are all at 10 AM and 2 PM Eastern
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
He has to be added to the 25 man(and then accrue service time his entire rehab) in order to be put on the 60 day, I think. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
All the gameplay rule changes(shift restrictions, pitch clock, etc) agreed in the CBA negotiations are set to happen next year so there's time to thoughtfully implement them. The exception is the universal DH, which does start this year. -
This site/twitter account seems to be the best bet for the conditional projections as it relates to pots. However, they note later that a couple of these permutations are extremely thin margins, so the chances could be more or less with other combinations of results this week
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Combine that with the pickoff limitations related to the pitch clock and you create a lot of stolen base opportunities, how many current CS happen with more than a foot to the base? That would have the knock on effect of motivating pitchers to be faster to the plate(maybe limiting some velocity?) and putting a higher premium on catcher arms(especially if automated balls/strikes are coming). -
Alternatively, Netherlands draw/lose their friendly w/ Germany tomorrow, Mexico lose/draw, US win, North Macedonia win -> US to Pot 1
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Yep, CR still needs to win by 6. Another Panama goal would make it 5.
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goodness gracious gio
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Also he's really good at playing passes in behind, which is gonna be on the whole half and part of why I suggest Morris instead of Reyna
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Gotta think really hard about getting Pulisic, Adams, Musah, and Jedi off reasonably quickly, if not at the half edit: maybe Roldan, Morris, and Bello at the half, Acosta around the 60 min mark
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If that happens do you play the game in Costa Rica with a neutral strategy and then go uber conservative if they go down by a goal or two, or do you bunker from the start? I think you just play. The US's defensive excellence comes from squeezing opponents well before they get to the goal so you don't need to bunker or go to 5 in the back, but you also don't need to try to press a bunch of goal kicks either. Once you get into the 2nd half or so maybe you drop lines a bit or add another CB, but even if the US is uncertain to win @CR in neutral circumstances, they are abundantly good enough to not lose by 6.
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get one more GD the rest of the night(and Panama is eliminated if they don't win so there will be copious chances) and CR has to beat the US by 6. The US has allowed 7 total goals in 12+ games.
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Arriola, with a towering header no less, amazing
