Transmogrified Tiger

Meh. Schwarber was a career 113 OPS+ guy with no defensive value when the Cubs let him go. What the hell were they going to get for him? He has hit better the past two seasons, but still has yet to exceed 3 WAR in his career. Not sweating him or that decision whatsoever. The hindsight angst some people have over it is overblown. Hell, Joc was a better hitter last year. Is this really the baseline now? We have all of two hitters projected to give us more than 3 WAR and one of them we had to pay $160m for. Go pay for dudes that can hit, bonus points if they're exceedingly easy to cheer for. Basically just be the 2022 Phillies (one hitter over 3 WAR, incidentally). At the time of his non-tender, Schwarber had a career 113 wRC+, was coming off a well below average short season, and hadn't hit a 120 wRC+ since his rookie year. There's virtue to the idea that you sometimes need offensive production even if positional value doesn't make it rack up WAR(I'm hopeful Mancini will be a good example of this in 2023), but it's also revisionist to paint Schwarber as a Nelson Cruz type which wasn't the case as of his release. Also the Phillies won 87 games and were 10th in wRC+ last year.

You have to extend Hoerner. Yes there's risk and he's not a 22 year old, but he's important to their current approach that emphasizes defense, he creates roster flexibility by not needing a backup SS, and there were only 9 position players his age or younger who were better last year. You start talking yourself out of Hoerner and that logic applies to almost every player except the ones that never come available. The other two I would consider would be Wesneski and Davis. Wesneski I think you can wait for him to prove last year was not a complete fluke, and yes you aren't locking up a pre-prime star, but you also don't need to be terrified of keeping a good pitcher for his age 32 season either. I'm fairly high on Wesneski though and at levels of belief even a little bit lower I think the case gets pretty weak pretty quick. Davis is the one I think is the strongest parallel to Rizzo. Top 50 prospect that hit some struggles at a high level and had a health scare. You don't do this if you're paying a Hoerner-esque deal that's essentially market rate for a positive outcome, but this is the one where you take a risk and could get some serious reward. That said, Davis' health scare is more concerning than Rizzo's and OF is not a place where the Cubs have to take risks to get a floor of production given the current org depth. You've got to be convicted of Davis having 4+ win upside. Of the others mentioned, I don't think there's as much upside with Steele given his stuff and past performance. Morel I'd be happy to give a modern day Bote deal too but there's too many things he's not currently good at to sprint to lock him up, and Mervis's empty positional value means the bar to getting benefit from an extension is so high and he'll be in the danger zone for 1B aging curves at FA anyway.

Edwin Diaz just finished off the DR and may have wrecked his knee in the celebration, he just got taken off in a wheel chair because he couldn't put weight on it, his brother on the field is in tears, just nuts.

Puerto Rico's opener for their game against the Dominican Republic is a pitcher who has a Dominican Republic flag tattooed on his arm The part I haven't figured out yet is why Cruz has that tattoo. He was born and went to high school in PR, his wife (and therefore his kids) are Puerto Rican, I assume it's due to one of his parents but google has let me down on finding more detail.

I forgot about Estrada, though I think he's fine to start the year in Iowa. It's a tough call, because someone between the stuff monster(Merryweather/Estrada), the long reliever(Sampson/Assad), or the lefty killer(Leiter Jr/Duffey) can't make the opening day roster unless Mooney is way off in his confidence about Wick(who has been good this spring himself). I honestly don't know which of those I prefer, I guess Merryweather/Sampson? Might change my mind by tomorrow though, never mind Opening Day.

A pretty good mailbag from Mooney focused on the opening day roster: https://theathletic.com/4310817/2023/03/15/cubs-javier-assad-nick-madrigal/ - Madrigal seems favored to make the team - Morel and Velazquez probably more likely to get developmental at bats in Iowa, which means Tauchman is probably the beneficiary while Seiya is on the IL - Wesneski appears to be the clear favorite for the #5 spot - Wick getting his contract signed without arbitration signals the Cubs have a plan for him and his roster spot isn't in jeopardy - A second LHP in the pen isn't certain, and someone like Leiter Jr(who was very good against LHH last year) may take that spot instead There's also a note on Assad's WBC performance. Pending further injuries, you can see this come into clearer focus: Gomes/Hosmer/Hoerner/Swanson/Rios/Wisdom/Bellinger/Happ/Mancini Barnhart/McKinstry/Madrigal/Tauchman Stroman/Taillon/Steele/Smyly/Wesneski Fulmer/Boxberger/Hughes/Thompson/Alzolay/Wick/???/??? That leaves the remaining questions as: - Does someone force their way onto the MLB bench? DeLuzio and Mastrobuoni are the two main options this side of Mervis, and I'm not sure the bench group with them looks appreciably different/better. - Who gets those last 2 bullpen spots? You've got Leiter Jr, Duffey, Merryweather, Assad, and Sampson as the main candidates, plus Sanders and Burdi have made some noise in ST. I could honestly see almost any pair of those first 4, the most declarative statement I'd make is I doubt both Assad and Sampson make the OD roster.

Swanson's two best offensive seasons came after his two worst spring training performances(sub-.600 OPS in both 2020 and 2022), so while I'd rather he hit than not I also wouldn't read much into it.

Henry Bushnell shared this reader submitted one which was kinda interesting, it essentially makes the entire tournament a double elimination bracket. You do it by dividing the 48 into 3 groups of 16, and then within the group winners and losers keep playing each other to get to the knockout round number(with the best GD of the 3 undefeated group teams getting a bye for numbers/motivation).

There aren't knockout round byes, 8 of the 12 3rd place teams make the knockout round which has 32 teams. That's why it's 72 games(6 games x 12 groups) to eliminate 16 teams(48 to 32).

One other thing that might tilt this in favor of signing Happ are the circumstances of this particular offseason. As long as Bellinger isn't horrific, he's gonna get a QO too, and if he's good he's probably the most attractive target this side of Ohtani and wouldn't cost a pick. So the marginal upside of Happ's QO pick may be less than if he were the only one. And to that point, the FA class at the moment looks really rough. It's Ohtani, the hope that Flaherty and Bellinger revive their star form, a couple interesting SP, and a bunch of post-prime sadness. You wouldn't want to commit to 5 years of Happ just because one class was thin, and you can also trade for a contract or trade + extend like the Braves do(though those options aren't obvious, maybe Moncada?), but the lack of options as attractive as Happ should enter the equation at some point.

is that Gary Cole deepfaked into the Brady Bunch

Agreed, and if you're doing it a year early, you're probably more likely to be able to get away with option years or the like to hedge against length. As for Happ in 2023, this isn't a Ricketts decision, it's a Jed decision. Even if payroll is flat, you're losing more than 65 million in LT salary with Heyward, Hendricks, Happ, and Bellinger(not including lower salaries at catcher and in the bullpen). The question is would you rather have Ian Happ for 4-6 years after 2023, or would you rather have a comp pick and the 18 million to spend elsewhere. I don't think there's an objectively right or wrong answer to that question. On one hand, the Cubs need to avoid being on a treadmill of replacing existing production in order to make the leap, and Happ is clearly a good player that doesn't look to be high risk of collapsing in value thanks to his well rounded profile. On the other hand, Happ plays the easiest position to find production for, there are likely to be several internal options that could slide in for him, and banking the pick lowers the barrier to pay for a QO FA and increase the odds the team gets the starpower it needs(and that Happ can't provide).

72 group stage games to eliminate 16 teams eh, I guess it could be worse. Think I still prefer the cross-fire groups of 3(your group of 3 doesn't play each other, but plays the same 3 opponents so ranking on points is fair) but I understand how that feels like too much complexity for a world cup.

I kinda wonder if the Bills/Allen are gonna become this era's Chargers/Rivers, with the Chiefs and Bengals playing the part of Pats/Brady and Colts/Manning. Feels like maybe an overreaction to a couple very close playoff games, but Allen may be a little more mistake prone(plus his running increases injury risk) and his division looks a bit tougher going forward too. Your missing the Steelers and Broncos or Ravens. in that analogy. Bills could easily end up the latter I thought about the Steelers, but the Bills are much more offense/QB driven so it didn't feel like a great comparison(even moreso with the Ravens). The Broncos are basically the Colts replacement since it's about Manning, so they can be grouped together for this overly simplistic view.

I know this is a Bears thread, but anyone else feel like the Bills are about to take a step back? I kinda wonder if the Bills/Allen are gonna become this era's Chargers/Rivers, with the Chiefs and Bengals playing the part of Pats/Brady and Colts/Manning. Feels like maybe an overreaction to a couple very close playoff games, but Allen may be a little more mistake prone(plus his running increases injury risk) and his division looks a bit tougher going forward too.

To that end, the Mets rotation is 3 guys 36 or older, a Japanese import that got less than expected, and the prayer that Quintana’s HR rate stays unsustainably low, with little hope for a SP stalwart on the farm. The negative long tail outcomes are really really bad. Yeah, I think the Mets are the vulnerable ones, too. Their upper end outcomes are so damn good that it makes you a little uneasy to say it, because if they win 104 games or something then I'll feel stupid, but if we remember that all we're looking for is the team projected for 88+ wins who's most likely to sag back to 92 or something? I firmly believe that could be the Mets. Maybe Baty and Alvarez, their top prospects, really hit, but if they don't, then there's also some age- and injury-related downside in the lineup. I think the prices they paid for guys like Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Omar Narvaez can obscure the fact that there's a real risk of those guys not producing much of anything in a given season. Their bullpen depth is a bit less daunting than it could be, too. hey look Quintana isn't gonna pick up a baseball until June, well I'm sure the 36, 38, and 40 year old in that rotation will be able to make 90+ starts no problem

US Soccer released the report on the investigation into the Berhalter/Reyna stuff, and from this summary it makes the Reynas look absolutely *terrible* So many specific quotes too that remove any doubt about the motivations and intended malice.

Yeah, Texas aTm got hosed. Glad someone else said it so I didn't have to. Clearly the committee is holding a grudge for Buzz questioning them last season so publicly and with actual facts. Thought with the way we've been playing since 1/1 that we could have been a potential Final Four surprise team if we got a decent draw. Now I'm not even thinking Sweet Sixteen. To get Texas, arguably a 1 seed, in the 2nd round is horsefeathering brutal. I think there's a very good argument for aTm to be seeded higher, but their paper thin non-con, unfortunately weak SEC draw(4 games against Bama/UK/UT including tourney), and pair of quad 4 losses are a more likely culprit than an imagined vendetta against Buzz.

Do we know what Assad's velocity has been in ST? On top of what Bertz said, I'm also hesitant to think his velo in an outing representing his country(for the first time?), and representing Mexico in a game against the US on top of that, is sustainable even if he were used as a MIRP in the future.

how in the world does the committee let Auburn go to Birmingham as a 9 seed

Caissie has first division starter upside, there's a reason some evaluators are pretty bullish on him. And he doesn't turn 21 until July and will likely be in AA, so there's time for him to make adjustments and tap into that more than he has in pro games so far. Personally I'm more bearish on him, I think with his size and current defensive reports he's gonna be a 1B/DH at the MLB level, and the bar there is so high(and his MiLB performance has enough red flags) that a good outcome is more in the Vogelbach/Tellez realm of production.

Basketball is a complicated game full of nuanced strategy

40 man vs not I think?

How are you handling rotation with all the midweek fixtures? I've always felt like I don't quite get that right, but I might just be paranoid about fitness level and guys are actually fine starting more games(albeit at the cost of the happiness of depth players)

I think that's fair, and I wouldn't take Velazquez's playing time to mean they think he's a bona fide MLB CFer. But in the context of this roster decision and the angle that Bertz described, I think it's noteworthy that they at least thought highly enough to try him there in an experimental time when they definitely didn't *have* to with the other players on the roster. I think that's at least a slight indicator that in answering the call for 'we need someone on the roster who can play a solid *RF* in Suzuki's absence', the team would think Velazquez is up for it, especially considering arm is not a limiting factor in his case.