Transmogrified Tiger

And if that's the path you want to go then Morel becomes viable for regular playing time too.

I think Jed's actual quote in the article is probably a more fair point than what Mooney insinuates: Regardless of what ditching Hosmer does from a relational perspective, from a 'how do I get the best production' perspective I think you can make the argument that you can't definitively say he's got nothing to offer based on 50 PA. I probably wouldn't make that argument, because even if you guess wrong and Mervis is bad and you don't have Hosmer anymore, you still have Mancini/Rios/Torrens who could fake it at 1B and then any number of other players who can help with DH at bats. I also don't think the likely difference in cutting Hosmer on April 20th v. May 15th or Memorial Day is going to be all that decisive in the short or long term trajectory of the team, but maybe I'm just being too careful because AAAA mashers are a much deeper player pool than stud hitting 1B.

Mooney doesn't think Mervis for Hosmer is very imminent: https://theathletic.com/4435497/2023/04/21/cubs-matt-mervis-how-soon/

They've both caught 6 games each, which is a setup that could easily continue at Iowa considering the lack of meaningful prospects there. Not trying to say Amaya should be on the cusp of being a big league catcher, but with his clock running I think you need to consider being aggressive in challenging his bat so you know what you have.

To that end, during the outing I was looking at Savant because it didn't look to me like he was throwing a slider, at least not the sweeper we're led to believe he's trying to add. JD was calling one of his pitches a slider but it had so little movement Savant calls it a cutter, he hasn't thrown something classified as a sweeper since the 12th. The knock on Fulmer is that he doesn't miss enough bats, and so he's going to be prone to getting BABIP'd, which is what happened to him in Los Angeles. Last night he just didn't have his stuff and got knocked around, it was the first time he'd given up multiple 95+ mph EVs in an outing. He needs to find the feel for that sweeper so he can miss more bats and so he can not be so reliant on the cutter/bullet slider that is the pitch most prone to getting hit hard(9 of his 12 hardest hit batted balls are on the cutter despite it being thrown 42% of the time). In the meantime I wouldn't consider him the guy you want facing the heart of an opposing order and I would definitely try to avoid having him face too many LHH, but he should be higher up the food chain than Merryweather/Rucker. With Taillon hurt and the weather warming up, there's gonna be more late inning appearances that start happen by necessity, especially with the 16 games in 16 days starting on Tuesday. I'm not gonna be terrified if Fulmer is throwing in the late innings, but I really want to see the sweeper show up as an effective option for him.

Swanson has played 36 discrete months as a big leaguer, and what is interesting to me is how exclusive his power and patience have been. He has 13 months with a walk rate above 10%, 11 months with an IsoP above .200, and *1* where he did both(April 2019). Also, the only months where he broke 10% BB% in the last three years were both September. This is more interesting than meaningful to me, but what it points me towards is that *something* is different. It could be that in a couple weeks when he's got that oblique/side hiccup completely out of his mind he's swinging easier and the power ticks up while the walks tick down. Could be there's a meaningful change to be more patient and that will eventually drive pitchers into the zone where he does damage and keeps the best of both worlds. Or maybe his swing is borked a bit like Bertz said(I did note he missed barreling two different cookies last night) and this is the best he can do if and until that gets sorted.

I can't believe Fulmer blew it after I specifically asked him not to

Hosmer isn't playing 1B over Mancini and is getting lifted for Madrigal, he can't be long for the roster

3 outs with xBA of at least .490 in 5 innings, dumb

12 pitches and out for Alzolay?

I didn't get a good look, did Barnes actually tag him or did he just bump him with the forearm since he had that weird grip to hold on to the ball

love hearing my PBP guy saying "you and I are gonna fight"

It's been a long while, but Amaya hit well in his limited first exposure to AA and he's on the 40 man. Gotta wonder how long they'll keep him in Tennessee when he's running a 1.000+ OPS with near 1:1 K/BB

Seems like everyone's struggling with the lights tonight

Girardi

I would put the odds of a mid-season extension at basically zero, or at least act that way for the purposes of any deal. To that end, here's the case you could make: Ohtani is the high end arm *and* bat the Cubs are currently missing. They have the current SP depth to go to the 6 man rotation Ohtani requires, and they have a mostly empty DH slot for him to have maximum impact(if Mancini starts hitting this is less relevant but only a little). Let's put this another way, if the Cubs were in contention at the deadline and traded for Rafael Devers AND Corbin Burnes, what would their championship odds look like? I'd argue they'd look as good as most teams. Even without the extension, Ohtani is buying a serious chance at a championship and that's very much something. The question then becomes at what cost, and that's where recent trends make this more viable. Ohtani might be the unicorn that breaks the scale here, but we've seen numerous examples in recent years that rentals are not bringing tippy top prospects in return. They're bringing fringe top 100 guys or players on the upswing who may get top 100 hype after the current season. In other words, the exact meat of the Cubs prospect depth, which for the serious chance at a championship(and possible future benefits) could be worth parting with 2-3 guys of that caliber. As for those future benefits, if you're the Cubs and you are interested in signing Ohtani, there's several benefits to having him in the org. An Ohtani-led Cubs are going to be playing in front of big crowds and almost certainly meaningful postseason baseball, considering how important winning is likely to be to Ohtani in choosing a future home it would go a long way to wipe out any current view of the Cubs as non-contenders. It also gives him an up close look at the things the Cubs have been pretty good at selling already, their pitching development, clubhouse environment(complete with existing Japanese star signed for 3 more years), etc. It also lowers the uncertainty for the front office in offering absurd money to a player who they haven't gotten an up close look at and how they can help him maintain success or (somehow) find another level.

It was actually Madison with two N's and a Y, but not where you think

I have no experience across the bay, but the Caltrain line that runs all the way to Gilroy drops you off next door to the stadium and runs pretty frequently. Seems about as good as you can hope for if you're starting 50 miles away in San Jose.

Oracle Park is hard to get to? Isn't it right downtown and right next multiple train lines? I guess it's a bit of a walk from the BART but still within a mile. I've never been but I always thought of it as among the more accessible MLB parks.

In a way, the increase in contact makes the analogy a little imperfect because you now have more batted balls(and their EVs) as a result, so from a strictly EV perspective you have two linked factors(not selling out for max EV, increase in contact/batted balls at lower EVs) moving your average and median.

Patrick Dubuque with a free article on Bellinger's reinvention: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/82076/cold-takes-the-toll-taken-on-cody-bellinger/ TL;DR he has made some mechanical adjustments to try to square the ball more when he pulls it(which is essentially all the time), and is trading some power(EV/launch angle) to do so, while still doing damage on mistakes. The shift restrictions make this much more viable than it would have previously.

Smart thinking of Wrexham to pick a megaclub as an opponent so it doesn't hurt their rep too much when they inevitably get housed.

At least according to Nico, some of the singles-heavy outcome is circumstance

Horton's 4th: BB (imo he threw 4 strikes) 10 pitch BB pop up K K

He's pitching backwards and dropping breaking balls in the zone on top of throwing the fastball for strikes too.