Transmogrified Tiger

I hadn't seen anything, but yeah that's what it says: https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2023/8/9/23826866/cubs-comeback-falls-short-despite-seiya-suzukis-breakout-vs-mets-ben-brown-ryan-jensen It's just ambiguous enough that I'm not 100% certain it's a typo, but I'd still bet that's what it is.

There's lots of long tail possibilities that make it difficult to reduce to an absolute probability. For one example, like you mention Madrigal is more likely to beat out a DP turn than many, but the Mets may be more aggressive in trying to get the runner at 3rd on a ground ball to the pitcher or left side.

Maybe there's a secret clause in the contracts of Leeds defensive midfielders that obligates them to be sold to mega clubs to languish on the bench. Chelsea's still hot after Caicedo too, on top of being a picture of dysfunction and Adams not being a particularly clean fit for Pocchetino ball.

Ross's full quote mentioned they pitched around Nico and that brings up Happ(one of the best OBP options on the team) with the bases loaded, which is a matchup they like and will absolutely take.

Welcome! They announced yesterday that Smyly is going to the bullpen for now and Assad is starting in his place next time through.

Tyler why

The Cubs are 6th in SB and SBA, and 4th in BsR, the idea that not trying to steal third base with Candelario(who was a whisker from getting picked off 2nd on the first pitch) is emblematic of them being overly conservative and leaving runs on the table on the bases is absurd to me. He has never attempted a steal of 3rd as a big leaguer. With his mediocre speed (56th percentile sprint per Statcast) Candelario's SB are basically all crimes of opportunity, taking advantage of neglectful pitchers and defenses. That's the opposite of the current situation, because even if they don't suspect Candelario of trying to steal, they're going to be not only positioned to hold his lead to play Madrigal but they want to keep him from getting a head start since they hope a poor bunt gives them a shot at the force at 3rd. I said it in the game thread, but that plate appearance posed the choice of either hitting Madrigal or a catcher, a DP is a real risk and given Madrigal's bat control, probably greater than that of a failed bunt. Yes, Morel isn't the paragon of contact behind him, but you're still lowering the bar for both him and Hoerner/Happ to tie the game and take the lead. I can accept that some people might prefer some other permutation of decisions for various reasons, though I do think fans of a certain age have overcorrected on bunt hatred when teams *must* have one run as opposed to old-school managers bunting with their 2 hitter in the 1st inning. But stealing 3rd is not a high percentage play, bunting is certainly not an objectively bad one, and letting Madrigal or a catcher swing away gives you a most likely outcome of Morel stepping to the plate needing to do even more than he needed last night, at which point he's still the point of failure for the inning's success and not the decision in the previous PA.

Even if you assume Morel is 70% to fail in that situation and so is Nico + Happ with 2 outs, you've given yourself coinflip odds of tying the game and probably only a little bit less than that of taking the lead. Madrigal or a catcher had to take that plate appearance, so a DP is a serious risk no matter what and it will take an uncommon result to move the runners over without a bunt. So you remove the DP risk and trade the odds of one of those guys driving in the runner for the increased chance at both tying the game and taking the lead. It's a good decision.

I'm oversimplifying, but if I'm choosing between the risk that the top of the order fails a 2nd/3rd 1 out situation, the risk that a catcher fails to get a sac bunt down and they still need a hit against a regular IF to score a run, or the risk that a catcher(or Madrigal) hits into a DP and Morel needs a hit, I know which one I'm choosing.

I think Candelario is probably an acquisition/extension that's greater than the sum of his production. The ability to play 1B and 3B as well as switch hit affords a lot of flexibility to keep the best possible lineup day to day, and he doesn't have any dramatic flaws as a hitter that make a lineup heavy on a certain type. I don't know if I love him being the best bat added to the 2024 roster though, and getting a plus SP, Bellinger or similar impact bat, plus Candelario might be too tough an ask. As for his contract, looking at the deals given out last year, the number that sticks out for me is around 60 million. I would be a little surprised to see him get 5 years at his age and even 4 might be questionable, but for the Cubs' purpose giving him Benintendi's deal minus a year may be preferable to giving out an Abreu deal for LT purposes.

Sneaky has beaten me to this but you definitely will! It's also instructive to look at more than just this year to understand why people might have more optimism in Mervis' future than Perlaza's. More broadly, here are half of the Top 10 first basemen in baseball this year Yandy Diaz Christian Walker Nathaniel Lowe LaMonte Wade Josh Naylor While no two paths are exactly the same, it's worth pointing out 1) their ages when they had real MLB success 2) how dominant they were(or weren't, relative to Mervis) in AAA 3) their lack of immediate MLB success 4) their lack of draft/prospect pedigree (Naylor is the closest and he graduated a fringe Top 100 guy) and 5) that none of them ended up succeeding with their original organization. There's an assumption here that because Mervis is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, he has to be good beyond imagination at AAA with the bat in order to have an MLB future, because he wasn't good in his first try and he's old for the level and lacks scouting oomph. Prospects fail as a rule so we shouldn't expect an outcome like the gentlemen above, but they're pretty proof positive that Mervis' circumstances don't condemn his chances.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't me crusading that Caissie is an uber-prospect, though relevant to the Mervis conversation the chasm for future seasons at 1B/DH combined with his breakout does tempt me more than in April. The point I'm driving at is his batted ball numbers are like 7th on the list of things that might derail him or limit his ceiling, and constantly picking that out first and foremost steers us away from what is more meaningful in whether or not a player makes it. For Caissie it's the K rate(or contact rate if you prefer) first, second, third, and probably fourth, followed by his huge frame making him an almost certain 1B/DH even if he's not an embarrassment in RF now. There are only so many Joey Gallos and betting on someone being another(especially seeming to lack Gallo's agility/athleticism that let him fake it at 3B and CF up to the MLB level) is not going to win very often.

When Caissie hits 26 more LD + HR and the distinction betwee LD v. FB is not absolute both from a measurement perspective and therefore the objective benefit of getting one v. the other, then yeah you're getting into like a 15 batted balls over 400+ PA, variance can absolutely play a part. And again that assumes we put this enormous importance on hitting things classified as FB(or not classified as GB) to begin with, and ignore the actual outcomes or the other underlying stuff like Caissie putting up like 98th percentile EVs or w/e it is. I'm begging you to not be a single issue voter on minor league batted ball %, you're way too smart to put this much weight on it.

Oof, here I am doing napkin math and not scrolling down to the raw totals. Anyway, Caissie has 18 more line drives and 8 more home runs as well. These are just not dramatically meaningful distinctions to think that a player with a standard deviation less offensive production(even before considering ARL) is somehow a better bet or that a difference in variance or measurement error is pass/fail for the player's future prospects.

Caissie has hit 1 less ground ball than BJ Murray in 2 less PA

Mervis has 512 PA at the AAA level with a wRC+ over 140 to go with a 13.8% BB% and 17.1% K%. He may not be hitting at the very top of the scales for AAA hitters, but that's not the pass/fail indicator that he'll be a better hitter at the MLB level, since he's clearly not struggling to hit for average or power and does have top of scale plate discipline for the level. Said another way, Mervis may not be at the very top of AAA leaderboards, but I don't think there's much else he can demonstrate that would raise confidence that his next MLB try will be different, because whatever was getting exploited at the MLB level is not showing up in AAA.

Is anyone saying "you can't get a 1B because you'll block Mervis"? I'm not really seeing that so I don't get this framing. All teams have scarce resources, there's at least some reason for optimism in his future productivity, 1B doesn't have a glut of obvious options on the market and as a position is more likely to have pop-up successes. There's definitely offseasons where prioritizing other options and having Mervis be the incumbent or near incumbent can make sense, and various spaces in between(a de facto platoon/competition with Madrigal if they bring back Candelario, a de facto competition w/ Tauchman/PCA if they bring back Bellinger, etc). There are also offseasons where they go get Alonso or Naylor or trade Mervis in a challenge deal for a pitcher or something. I get that you're compelled to hold this line on minimizing Mervis's impact because of your convictions around the caliber of prospect he is, but I don't see how it's that binary.

honestly more concerned about Vogelbach than Alonso in this situation

Caissie has now homered since this tweet

That HR carried...a lot more than I thought it would off the bat

Nats lost game 1 to the Phillies, and lead game 2 by 1 in the 5th Marlins lead the Reds by 1 in the 8th Brewers/Rockies scoreless after 3

Decent odds Nico gets ejected before they leave New York

that is a low key insane slide from Gomes, good reminder that even 'unathletic' pro players are a different species

I imagine the plan is for him start against LHP, if anyone besides the middle infield or C needs a day off, or if Madrigal or Tauchman get cold. With the team in the playoff chase there may be a stretch like this where he's not very visible, but I wouldn't be surprised if we add it up at the end of the year and he started more than a third of games post-Candelario trade.

Burdi, Boxberger, and Roberts are all on the 60 day IL and all 3 are starting to get game action again.