Transmogrified Tiger

The people(myself included) have explained the reasons that they think certain stats are more important than others. BK has made some great posts especially on the topic. Can you please explain that comment?

Thank you for the welcome. OBP and SLG are extremely important, but so are clutch hitting, fundmentals, and defense. Dunn is sorely lacking in all of those area's. Even Burnitz' career numbers are better than Dunn's with RISP, RISP w/2 outs, and bases loaded. Those are the key area's that bring RBI's. Dunn can't cut it. I'm not one that believes in the idea of "clutch" hitting. Numbers in supposed "clutch situations" can vary wildly from year to year, and overall they gravitate towards the player's career numbers. Defnese in LF is not extremely important. When a player of Dunn's offensive capabilities comes along, he more than makes up for any defensive deficiencies he has, especially in LF where there isn't a lot of play.

Adam Dunn is one of the most overrated players in all of baseball. And while Jim Thome is a homerun only guy who k's a lot, he is a much more productive hitter than Dunn. Take a look inside some of Dunn's career stats, through Wednesday's game... Dunn's career avg with RISP: .209 career avg w/RISP 2 outs: .199 career avg w/bases loaded: .205 career avg total: .248 - and he is supposed to be some kind of premier player? number of seasons Dunn has driven in more than 71 runs? Once and his fielding is mediocre at best, he has a .967 career fielding percentage in left, .962 in right. So what does he have to offer? Power. His walks are an abberration and simply an effect of teams pitching around him with a historically weak Cincy lineup. Dunn has been the only true power threat in Cincy for most of his career. If Dunn's pitch selection is so fantastic, then why does he K 170+ times per season, and hit only .248? He is only selective or smart enough to lay off the pitches way out of the strike zone that he sees regularly as he is pitched around. Anything near the plate he swings at, and most often misses. I'm not making a case for Jim Thome here, as I'm not a big fan of slow, lumbering strikeout hitters who can't field. But since you brought Thome up, let's look at a few of his career stats in comparison to Dunn: Thome career avg w/RISP: .275 (Dunn .209) avg w/RISP 2 outs: .250 (Dunn .199) bases loaded: .299 (Dunn .205) career avg: .281 (Dunn .248) Thome has been a much better clutch hitter than Dunn, and because of that he has been a consistent run producer. Dunn is simply Dave Kingman from the left side of the plate, and gets pitched around more. The last thing the Cubs need is another slow, lumbering, mediocre fielder who only can offer home runs or strikeouts at the plate. We need guys who hit for avg, have speed, play good defense, and have some pop. The Cubs have loaded their roster with home run/strikeout hitters for decades. How many World Series have we won? They, Dusty, Hendry, and the fans, need to stop thinking we are a 1970's American League team managed by Earl Weaver. The teams that win today play the same style of baseball that has consistently won since the beginning of baseball - fundamental baseball. The Cardinals and the White Sox, among others, get runners on, steal or bunt them over, and get them in with a basehit, hit and run, sac fly, or whatever means necessary. The Cubs swing for the fences almost every at bat. Don't let a good offensive run vs. some bad teams lull you into believing we have turned the page. We do not play fundamental baseball, and our low-contact power/strikeout guys can only get hot for a shortwhile and it will be back to a miserable run where we can't score for two weeks. Fundamental baseball does not go into slumps. You draw a walk or get a basehit and move the runner over. It works consistently, and the Cubs need to accept that fact, fire Dusty Baker and his coaches, and hire a staff that will demand intelligent, fundamental baseball. Adam Dunn is not part of the answer to our woes. Welcome! Dunn's batting average is only part of the story. He gets on base at a very good clip and slugs for a ton of power. The sooner people realize that OBP and SLG are more important than AVG and K's, the better off we'll be.

I'm not sure anyone's on the Cubs is capable of knocking him down. Zambrano would take him out like no other.

What an idiotic statement. Cubs fans have stood by their team for nearly 100 freakin years. We are allowed to be harsh on under-acheivers after all the crap we have had to endure. So you're taking out 100 years of frustration onto one player or a couple players?

He's got a high BABIP, but his LD% this year indicates he hasn't been really lucky. Of course I don't know if that's near his career norms of hitting line drives, but it's worth pointing out.

No to Lowell, no to Pierre, no to Burnett. Encarnacion is having a nice season, wasn't he rumored to be available?

I really like Betancourt(have for over a year now). What do you think of his suspension for steroids?

2005: 9.5M 2006: 12M 2007: 13.5M team option w/ 3M buyout

Bob is trying to be political in saying that Milton isn't good, haha.

Can we give up such valueable monster arms? http://www.widewordofsports.com/images-thomas%20jones2.JPG Man that's crazy That's crazy, and it's also Michael Pittman. I can't believe I didn't pick up on that, I'm a Bucs fan too! I even remember noticing Pittman's massive arms in a picture before too.

The problem with using RBI is that there are too many factors outside a hitter's control for it to be useful. If one guy only has 30 men to drive in for a period of time and drives in 20, is he just as good as the guy who drove in 20 but had 50 men to drive in? Two players on different teams could do the exact same thing in every at bat and have drastically different RBI totals, because they are dependent on the player's teammates.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him. Maybe b/c he'll hit for around a .290 avg, hit about 35 HR and drive in around 120+ RBI..... nothing special eh? I'd rather have Lee than any of those guys actually The same Carlos Lee that's hitting .261? HR totals don't matter to me a ton, and RBI mean little to nothing to me. His lower OBP (albeit with a high SLG) diminishes his production. All 4 of those other guys create more runs than Lee. This thinking is getting out of control. How can Rbi's and Hr's mean nothing. Some of you guys like to talk about runs created, and I have no idea how all that stuff works. What I do know is that the best way to create a run is to hit a homerun. I'll also take a guy with a 150 rbi over a guy with a 150 walks. Sure home runs are great, but in evaluating a player I prefer things that take in the full picture. If a guy hits 20 HR, and hits only 5 doubles, he's not that great at "advancing players along the bases" the point BK alluded to earlier. If a guy has 20 HR and 30 doubles, he's obviously much better at this. How do we take that into account? SLG is a good crude measure as BK said before. If you don't know how a particular stat is measured, feel free to ask. In this case, Runs Created can be calculated many different ways. The RC I was using in those comparisons is what they use at The Hardball Times, which includes some situational hitting and includes Park Factors. Here's a basic definition of RC: (H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total Bases + .26(TBB - IBB + HBP) + .52(SH + SF + SB)) divided by (AB + TBB + HBP + SH + SF).

Welcome! I think it's premature to shut down Wood for the year. If he is only hurting himself by pitching, what is rest going to do to help that? Also, I'm vehemently opposed to Wood becoming a closer. Wood is one of the better starting pitchers in major league baseball(when healthy of course). Most relievers are relievers because they aren't good enough as starters. I'd much rather have Wood for 150-200 innings than 80 as a reliever. Wood's injury issues are such that I don't believe throwing fewer innings would reduce his injury risk.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him. Maybe b/c he'll hit for around a .290 avg, hit about 35 HR and drive in around 120+ RBI..... nothing special eh? I'd rather have Lee than any of those guys actually The same Carlos Lee that's hitting .261? HR totals don't matter to me a ton, and RBI mean little to nothing to me. His lower OBP (albeit with a high SLG) diminishes his production. All 4 of those other guys create more runs than Lee.

There's no way in heck the Indians would trade Sabathia to anybody let alone for Adam Dunn. Sabathia has really been struggling. He's losing favor among the fans. I'm not saying they'll trade him, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Well, the right personnel is in the lineup. That's good.

I wasn't saying that there wasn't anyone who fit that profile, but that typically a .300/.360 guy is closer to a Juan Pierre than an Adam Dunn in terms of power. If he's not worth 2 good prospects and Patterson, who is? Here's the list of MLB players with more Runs Created/Game than Dunn: Lee, Pujols, Sheffield, Hafner, Nick Johnson(hurt, 70 fewer PA's), Roberts, Giles, A-Rod, Abreu, Ensberg, Ortiz, Delgado, Manny, Edmonds, Kent, Utley, Cabrera, Sexson, Burrell, and Drew(hurt, 70 fewer PA's). Dunn's one of the premier offensive players in the game, is only 25, and has been consistent in his production(can't be said for Ensberg, Utley, Burrell, Roberts, even Drew). We can't get wrapped up in team dependent statistics like RBI's, or even sac flies. Sure he K's a lot, but he still outproduces almost everyone in the National League! If the Reds are going to be insane enough to consider trading him, we shouldn't return the favor by refusing to part with some of our pitching + Patterson.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him.

Walker Hairston Lee Dunn Ramirez Burnitz Barrett Cedeno or Walker Barrett Lee Dunn Ramirez Burntiz Patterson Cedeno

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error. As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit. And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy. In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP. That's not true. The guy may not drive in more runs himself, but when you compare [same lineup with .320/.360 guy] v. [same lineup with .230/.400 guy] the lineup with the .400 OBP guy is going to score more runs. Also worth pointing out, many of the people who fall closer to the .300/.360 category have very little power, while you'll find that .230/.400 guys are more TTT players and have significantly more power, which adds to the advantage they have over the .300/.360 guy. That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued. None of the players you mentioned are within 20 points of hitting .300, and Lee isn't even close to the .360 OBP benchmark laid out. RBI's aren't telling the whole story when it comes to Dunn. He walks often w/ RISP likely because he hits 6th in the Reds lineup. Were he in an appropriate place in the order, he would likely get more pitches to hit, and get a few more hits than walks in those situations. Regardless, RBI and even HR are not a very good way to measure run production. As it stands, Dunn is one of the most productive offensive players in the league. There may be debate on how much we should give up for him, but it really should be clear cut that he is about as good an acquisition any team could hope to make.

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error. As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit. And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy. In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP. That's not true. The guy may not drive in more runs himself, but when you compare [same lineup with .320/.360 guy] v. [same lineup with .230/.400 guy] the lineup with the .400 OBP guy is going to score more runs. Also worth pointing out, many of the people who fall closer to the .300/.360 category have very little power, while you'll find that .230/.400 guys are more TTT players and have significantly more power, which adds to the advantage they have over the .300/.360 guy.

The team is playing there?

No my friend that is pretty convincing evidence he was a troll. Whatever. I'm done with this nonsense. What evidence? Why is it such a secret? This isn't Watergate and we're not talking about Woodward and/or Bernstein. The mods and admins found reason to believe he was trolling outside of his posting record here, more than one of them has said so. If they feel it was necessary/appropriate to share what that is, then they might do so.

5 K's and 2 BB(He's also been HBP, FWIW)