Transmogrified Tiger

Crawford/Baldelli/Young isn't bad. If Young plays in the big leagues. It's going to happen soon, if not right at the beginning of the year. The D-Rays aren't going to compete next year, and Gomes isn't exactly a fan favorite that trading him and not replacing him with Young right away is going to kill fan morale(what little is left in TB). I meant the rumors about Young and Upton being kept at AAA all next year. Yeah, my point is that there's no doubt if Young will be up, just when. Gomes isn't someone who trading him for pitching help and replacing with a lesser player(Hollins?) to hold the fort for Young isn't going to cause the fanbase to be really upset.

Well, Lofton's about to fall off a cliff production-wise, so I wouldn't go after him under any circumstance. There's way too much risk for not a ton of reward, especially considering Dusty. Of course that doesn't mean we should go after Pierre either. He didn't fall off a cliff last year production wise. He can be platooned again this year, and if Patterson figures out what his problem is, then Lofton becomes a nice bench option. They could sign Lofton for about the same amount they paid Neifi. That's because his BABIP went up 60 points.

This almost makes up for Giles being pretty much off the market. Go on Jim Bowden, make it a bidding war.

Well, Lofton's about to fall off a cliff production-wise, so I wouldn't go after him under any circumstance. There's way too much risk for not a ton of reward, especially considering Dusty. Of course that doesn't mean we should go after Pierre either.

Well in that case let's just keep Patterson. His 2005 was terrible like Pierre's, and production wise they were pretty much equal in '04. Patterson held a slight edge in RC, Pierre had a slight edge in WARP2. Plus Patterson's a superior defender and doesn't cost you any players.

Crawford/Baldelli/Young isn't bad. If Young plays in the big leagues. It's going to happen soon, if not right at the beginning of the year. The D-Rays aren't going to compete next year, and Gomes isn't exactly a fan favorite that trading him and not replacing him with Young right away is going to kill fan morale(what little is left in TB).

Crawford/Baldelli/Young isn't bad.

Let me know how many seasons Hairston has posted 200 hits, or stole over 45 bases, or posted an OBP over 360, or struck out less than once every 15 times at bat (and roughly every 16 PAs)--OK?? What is the total on Hairston? Thought so. I'm going to guess you didn't read any of the responses that followed this post. Hairston when healthy has been Pierre's equal. If Pierre is so great, why don't we hear people saying "Hairston would be a great leadoff hitter if he was healthy" like we do with Wood, or Nomar?, etc. JHJ has not been Pierre's "equal", by any reasonable metric. Name me a player in the big leagues that strikes out less frequently than Pierre. Hint--it'll only take one hand, and JHJ will not be on one of those fingers. Runs created. VARP. Stolen base percentage. Runs scored. OBP. Defensive efficiency. I bore myself with actual data. Hairston--competent bench utility player. Pierre--bona fide leadoff guy that CONTRIBUTES to his team's success. Had an off-year in 2005. I'm ready to buy low instead of buy high for once. Look up. You can't tell me those lines aren't similar, if not creepily so. Listing off a bunch of counting statistics doesn't help, because Hairston's health has already been mentioned as a caveat. Pierre steals more bases, Hairston has more XBH's. Looking at rate stats, there's no reason why they aren't similar, and yet no one is calling Hairston an injury-prone quality leadoff man.

Let me know how many seasons Hairston has posted 200 hits, or stole over 45 bases, or posted an OBP over 360, or struck out less than once every 15 times at bat (and roughly every 16 PAs)--OK?? What is the total on Hairston? Thought so. I'm going to guess you didn't read any of the responses that followed this post. Hairston when healthy has been Pierre's equal. If Pierre is so great, why don't we hear people saying "Hairston would be a great leadoff hitter if he was healthy" like we do with Wood, or Nomar?, etc.

So you want me to look up several years of Marlins boxscores and find where someone else batted 2nd instead of Castillo. I'll stand by 100 years of baseball conventional wisdom. Castillo's just an aberration. That's quite the aberration, he's been hitting second behind Pierre for over 1500 PA's.

You're the one saying that Pierre distracts pitchers. Where's the proof? And again you've completely missed the point about injuries. Hairston when healthy is Pierre's equal, yet no one is looking at his production and sees "leadoff man extraordinaire, if only he could stay healthy".

That's a great article Rich. :P

How many times does it have to be said? PIERRE AND HAIRSTON'S NUMBERS OVER THE LAST FOUR HAVE BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL. If Pierre's production is good for a leadoff hitter, then Hairston has to be considered the same when healthy.

No, I actually researched it myself rather than blindly following someone else's thoughts. How about Pierre himself? Hasn't seemed to help Mr. Castillo very much. Reposted from another thread from late July: Pierre hitting #1 2003: .302/.359/.370/.729 (667 PA's) 2004: .336/.382/.422/.804 (632 PA's) 2005: .272/.319/.357/.676 (385 PA's) Luis Castillo hitting #2 2003: .325/.389/.406/.794 (590 PA's) 2004: .285/.372/.332/.704 (488 PA's) 2005: .333/.423/.415/.838 (271 PA's) Their OPS's are almost perfect proportions. When one goes up the other goes down. I'm not saying that at all. People would say that Wood and Hudson are pretty comparable when Wood is healthy, and that's generally true. Why doesn't anyone say the same about Hairston and Pierre? For the nth time I'll ask: Why does no one think Hairston is a good leadoff hitter if he could just stay healthy? It's been said about Nomar, Wood, Prior, etc., but when it comes to someone who's been Pierre's double when healthy, not at all.

Again, I'm talking rates of production. I posted the numbers already, they've been mirrors for the last 4 years, but if you want to use numbers from 5+ years back to show how dissimilar they've been, go for it. And no, the Pierre distracts pitchers theory has been debunked. It's simply not true. Posting the rate of production and making a comparison with a player that can't even stay healthy and has only played half as many games as the other player is meaningless. Also, as CubfaninCA pointed out there is a 20 pt difference in OBP which IMO would be the most important stat for a leadoff hitter. Pierre has shown an ability to get On base at a .355 clip. That has got to be worth something. Again, why isn't anyone saying that Hairston is the leadoff hitter we need if he was able to stay healthy?

Again, I'm talking rates of production. I posted the numbers already, they've been mirrors for the last 4 years, but if you want to use numbers from 5+ years back to show how dissimilar they've been, go for it. And no, the Pierre distracts pitchers theory has been debunked. It's simply not true.

It is? So to you the ability of player B to stay healthy and produce at a higher rate than player A isn't worth anything? Have to disagree with you on that one. Did you read the rest of my post? I'm comparing the rates of production between the two, which have an uncanny similarity. Why isn't anyone saying that Hairston is the answer to our leadoff woes if healthy? It's because he's not a good option, and neither is Pierre.

Nicely done! To compare Hairston to Pierre is ridiculous. Hairston has yet to have even a decent year while playing more than part time. Player A Avg. less than 80 games a year Player B Has avg. 150+ games a year Also, please give your reasoning behind calling Pierre a subpar defensive CF. From Espn scouting report : Hardly sounds like a "subpar" defender. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/pierrju01.shtml That's why Pierre is a subpar defender. The ESPN scouting reports are a joke, and using them Hairston could be considered above average too. Whether or not Hairston gets hurt or not is irrelevant. They have startlingly similar production, yet no one is saying "Hairston would be the leadoff man we're looking for if he could just stay healthy".

Why didn't you list their stats for 2001? Also, Player A gets hurt alot unlike Player B. There's a pretty signifcant difference between the two. I want a little more for Patterson and Hill than just Pierre though. Where's the significant difference? That Hairston is injury prone? The point is that Pierre isn't good, no one's calling for Hairston as the leadoff man we've been searching for, but for some reason people are enamored with Pierre. And I didn't list 2001 for the purposes of showing that they have been similar. The same way I didn't use their numbers from 2000, that favor Hairston in a similar sample size. But if you would like to post them and use the numbers from 5 years ago to prove that Pierre is significantly better than Hairston be my guest.

Player A 2002: .268/.329/.376/.705 2003: .271/.353/.372/.725 2004: .303/.378/.397/.775 2005: .261/.336/.368/.704 Player B 2002: .287/.332/.343/.675 2003: .305/.361/.373/.734 2004: .326/.374/.407/.781 2005: .276/.326/.354/.680 Both are subpar defensive centerfielders. One is on our team, the other is Juan Pierre. Anyone think the difference between Hairston and Pierre is worth Rich Hill, nevermind Patterson?

From what I have, Hairston is a free agent. According to this he isn't a FA intil after the 06' season: http://mlb4u.com/0607FA.html He has less than 6 years of service time, but he was a super-two. I'm not sure if that means he gets an extra year of arbitration, or if he gets to free agency a year earlier. If the former is true, then he is arbitration eligible, and will probably make 2 million. If the latter is true, he's obviously a FA. I thought it was discussed here before, but I couldn't find anything.

Jenks is insane. I don't know if he ever graduated high school, he lived in the woods with his dad or something. He also got into trouble a couple times in the minor leagues. Here's an article that details a little bit of it. The ESPN article they mention is really good, but I can't seem to find it online.

Juan Pierre had a .680 OPS last year. .680. six eight-oh. Once more, .680. Whywhywhywhywhy

Probably because most of us are midwesterners. Plus there's only one FSU fan I know of here at NSBB, and no Miami fans that I know of. Mizzou with 14 votes! That's not the AP poll Adam.

Seriously. If getting Lowe means that we get Bradley too, then that's alright. But I don't see a reason to target starting pitching on its own, especially high cost guys like Lowe, Zito, etc.