Transmogrified Tiger

Chris Duffy

The new stadium will be ready this year.

Man @tOSU, Mich, and MSU is going to be brutal. I hope we get 1 of those. yeah I think we can get at least 1, hopefully 2 of those. Izzo said that 5 losses could win the Big 10. If we win just one of those 3 road games and win every other game, that would put us at 5 losses. Even though we lost to PSU, I believe we can beat tOSU on the road as well as Michigan on the road. But isn't Michigan State done with all the "tough" road games? I think we'll (Illinois) beat OSU but lose in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Wait a minute..... if Augustine doesn't have to guard Dials too much, I think we'll win. Michigan State still has to go to Iowa and Indiana, their schedule is absolutely brutal. I don't have much faith in IU even in Bloomington, but Iowa may beat them in Iowa City. I still think MSU is the team to beat. I'd much rather have their schedule than what we have. Three of our final four games are road games at Michigan, Minnesota (bad team but always 20+ pts. better at home) at Michigan State with a home game against Iowa somewhere in there. Plus, we're in Columbus on Sunday. Maybe the remaining schedule, but MSU drew the worst possible schedule this year. They only get Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue, and Northwestern once each, and get the rest of the top 7 twice.

502 PA's for Walton, 374 PA's for Smith

Man @tOSU, Mich, and MSU is going to be brutal. I hope we get 1 of those. yeah I think we can get at least 1, hopefully 2 of those. Izzo said that 5 losses could win the Big 10. If we win just one of those 3 road games and win every other game, that would put us at 5 losses. Even though we lost to PSU, I believe we can beat tOSU on the road as well as Michigan on the road. But isn't Michigan State done with all the "tough" road games? I think we'll (Illinois) beat OSU but lose in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. Wait a minute..... if Augustine doesn't have to guard Dials too much, I think we'll win. Michigan State still has to go to Iowa and Indiana, their schedule is absolutely brutal.

The what? The article where people couldn't tell if he was quoting Baker, or guessing what Baker would say at the convention.

MSU rolls Purdue at home. A trip to Minnesota Saturday is MSU's last game against the "bottom 4" of the B10.

I really hope MSU gets in the same regional as Florida.

Some numbers from 2005: (Pitcher: RSAA, ΔRE) Farnsworth: 16.0, 18.8 Lidge: 15.8, 16.4 Rivera: 25.4, 28.7 Eyre: 12.7, 26.0 Wagner: 24.1, 24.0 K-Rod: 12.2, 13.6 Gordon: 18.2, 9.8 Dempster: 12.0, 12.4 As you can see, most of these reliever's change in run expectancy was pretty close to their RSAA. (Where RSAA was league ERA-player ERA * (IP/9).) Still, Farnsworth looks to have performed a bit better in high leverage situations as his ΔRE was a few runs better than his RSAA. The only real outliers of this group are Eyre and Gordon. Eyre never seemed to give up a hit with someone on base, while Gordon seemed to enjoy padding opposing batters' RBI totals. jeebers, that's awesome

Welcome! Do you think you could resize your avatar a little bit? It'd be much appreciated.

I'll take that wager. PECOTA for Spivey: 248/322/410 WARP 1.7 PECOTA for Walker: 280/341/425 WARP 2.5 PECOTA for Hairston: 268/342/387 WARP 2.2 PECOTA for Perez 264/296/364 WARP 2.4 I like my chances that Walker and Hairston will play enough to have the Cubs 2b outproduce Spivey. Spivey isn't really that good. How about the loser buys the winner the cap of their choice? You look at PECOTA, but I think Spivey is severely underrated by everyone because of his last two injury marred years. All signs indicate that he's healthy headed into the season who knows how long that will last. I know you're fond of most recent 3 yr. avg. numbers, but for obvious reasons, that's not fair to Spivey. His career numbers including his horrific last two years look like this: .270/.354/.436. The guy just turned 31. I predict a repeat of Grudz and his two heavily injured seasons and then a full healthy season with the Cards (only difference is Spivey's 06 numbers will be better than Grudz's 05 numbers and while Grudz when playing was still solid where Spivey was horrid). That said I'll only take you up on your wager, if there's a void clause if Spivey's injured for three straight weeks. You can have the void clause only if I get one if Dusty insists on starting Neifi at 2b for more than 30 games. Hold on, now you're taking the this out of context of my original wager. My original wager wasn't based so much on Spivey being great or better than Todd Walker for that matter, but rather the mix of players and who would end up with playing time. Besides, you'd expect 30 games at a position for a backup at any position. 30 games is different than 30 starts, especially when there are two backups for Walker.

Again, 2003. Predictably, you bring up Game 6. Farnsworth wasn't great in Game 6. What is neglected is that Farnsworth was also very good the rest of the postseason. Game 2 of the NLDS, Farnsworth comes into a bases loaded, 2 out situation in a one run game, K's the batter to end the threat, then sets down the Braves in the 7th. Game 4 of the NLDS, Farnsworth comes into a 2 run game with a runner on first, one out, retires the side and the first hitter of the next inning without allowing a baserunner. Game 1 of the NLCS, Farnsworth comes in with Castillo on first, one out in a tie game. He retires the next 5 hitters, 3 via the strikeout. He also finished off Game 4 of the NLCS with an inning and a third, giving up only a hit. Our memories remember the bad much more than the good.

That's great. I can't wait until August when he starts to pitch well 8) If you read what I responded to, I wasn't talking about Maddux's mechanics. It was in reference to Maddux's influence. That's why I was referring to his team attitude. Read the post in its entirety before you quote someone out of context! Ken Looked like he agreed, but was just pulling your leg there. Hence the smiley.

Did you watch the 2005 postseason? Game 4 against Houston? What gets lost in the 18 inning marathon was the fact that Farnsworth came in with runners on first and second with no outs, got an out on a fielders choice but the runners advanced. Then he walked Luke Scott to bring up Lance Berkman. I called the Berkman grand slam right after ball 4 to Scott. Then, everybody knows all Farnsworth has is a fastball and Berkman launches it to left field for the grand slam. Even after that Atlanta still leads 6-5 and going into the ninth you think, with the 6-7-8 hitters coming up that Farnsworth is going to get out of it. He gets two outs and then gives up a home run to #8 hitter Brad Ausmus who had THREE HOME RUNS ALL OF 2005 AND JUST 71 IN HIS CAREER. This is your "very very good" closer? You've got to be kidding me. I was so happy to see Farnsworth go. Good riddence to him. The Yankees can have him. So, one incidence makes Farnsworth a choker? Is Brad Lidge a choke artist? Remember, I said Farnsworth in 2003, which was your original comparison to Howry.

I can't say that I could disagree any more.

Farnsworth in '03 was very very good. Better than Howry will likely be in '06. His "choker" label is a myth.

Welcome! The problem with comparing to the '03 team is two fold. First of all, the lineup isn't what won us anything in '03, it was unbelievable starting pitching. We may get that this year, we might not. Secondly, the '03 team wasn't a great team by any stretch. They didn't win 90 games, and barely hung on to the division when the contenders. Being as good as the '03 team may not even get you the wild card in '06. EDIT: If you're talking about '03 v. '06 performance, Farnsworth is likely to run circles around Howry. Borowski was better than Dempster will likely be too.

So wait, I don't get it. You're blaming Duke for going out and getting good players? No thats fine, but I fault the logic of feeling sorry for them for not having any depth like many here do. Who feels sorry for them? I think it's an indictment of Coach K. He can get all those McD AA guys, but he can't find anyone that can backup Williams for how many years? Maybe he has some philosophical reason for wanting to play a short bench, but anytime Williams gets in foul trouble they're in a huge bind.

One thing I'm not sure you realize (and if you do, I apologize) is that I lived in St. Louis during Alden's tenure. Many people have excused him for the Ricky Clemons situation, the death of the football player last year (I forgot his name), the fact that his hires in football and basketball haven't done what fans thought when they were hired several years ago. I worked with and have several friends who are Mizzou alums who are just now beginning to finally criticize Alden (not to mention what crap I heard on St. Louis sports radio). In no way did I intend to say 100% of Mizzou fans think the same way, but the ones I know definitely do. All I heard from a lot of fans and alum after Mizzou hired Pinkel and Snyder was how they were going to bring the two programs to national prominence. Snyder did take a team to the elite eight, but even then they were just a 12-seed-- meaning they were one of the last at-large bids handed out. I still stand by my opinion that Mizzou fans are one of the worst in terms of expectations. Three years ago beating Nebraska in football shouldn't have gotten to the point where when you win you tear down the goal-posts. Even I, a Mizzou hater, thought two years ago with Brad Smith, that Mizzou would be participating in the Big 12 championship game before his eligibility was up and beating any Big 12 North team would be the norm. The football player's name was Aaron O'Neal. In my experience, it's been the opposite with expectations. Most figured the football team would be where it was, not quite great, and not quite terrible. They lost some games they shouldn't have, and that's why most have either a neutral or negative view of Pinkel. Most here hate Snyder, some to the point where they wouldn't enjoy any future success the program would have under Snyder. It's harder to gauge the approval level of Alden since he's not as hot a topic as Snyder, but there's plenty of fans that want him gone(just check TigerBoard). I wasn't around for the scandal, and I fully understand his F-ball and B-ball hirings have been subpar. I will give him this though. Just about every other sport is doing very well. Volleyball went to the Elite 8, Baseball was a couple outs away from the CWS, Softball, Gymnastics, Wrestling, and Women's hoops are all Top 25. I don't know how many of those guys he hired, but Mizzou has had a good bit of success in the non-revenue sports. EDIT: Yes, I did know you lived in the St. Louis area for a while.

I never said anything about the loss compared to any other(although losing to Colorado isn't nearly as bad as blowouts against ISU @ home or @ Baylor). Congratulations for being more thick skinned than most, but you have to understand you come off like a jerk when you pile on with hyperbole on a rival after a bad loss. A jerk? Right. Considering I haven't heard from Mizzou or any other posters other than you, I'll consider that's just you speaking out on emotion after a bad loss. I have no earthly idea why you took what I said so personal, I was being absolutely facetious when speaking of the death penalty, and I said Alden and Snyder should be fired --- not for just this year's crappy performance, but crappy performance over the year's and you took offense even though, as you stated, there are lots of people with the same opinion. I think Mizzou has four of the last six on the road, so I hope you're prepared. If Illinois loses at OSU on Sunday, I won't take the negative as personal unless what is said is false. That's when I take things personal. I'm not disagreeing with your points about Snyder or Alden, but you said something false about fans criticizing Alden, and then used that as your rationale to call Mizzou fans(of which I and several others on this site are) and Missouri media among the worst in the country. That's why I took offense.

They've lacked depth for several years now, I doubt they make it past the round of 16 once they lose the officiating edge they seem to enjoy in the regular season. And UNC ties it up. Part of the reason they lack depth is because they've lost a bunch of players to early entry, but you can't tell me thee's not some junior that can run that offense better that the kid who looks scared to death running it now. I dislike Duke as much as anyone, but I think you are being pretty hard on a kid who had seven assists tonight and is averaging over 5 per game this year (plus a steal and a half a game). Not trying to take away from him, but I wonder how many of those are passing from the top of the key to a spotted up Redick? Paulus doesn't look that comfortable out there, the greatest example of this is his inability to find Redick at the end of one of their losses, can't remember which. However, I must say I was impressed with him knocking down those free throws at the end of the game.

I never said anything about the loss compared to any other(although losing to Colorado on the last shot isn't nearly as bad as blowouts against ISU @ home or @ Baylor). Congratulations for being more thick skinned than most, but you have to understand you come off like a jerk when you pile on with hyperbole on a rival after a bad loss.

Many people want Alden fired. Have some tact, you know there's several Mizzou fans on here. If I offended your university, I apologize, but please tell me where I lack tact. I call them as I see them. Like I said, consider the audience. After U of I lost to Penn State, it would be "calling them like I see them" to make fun of the fans rushing the court, pointing out how long it's been since Penn St. beat a ranked team(or a conference team on the road), how Dee Brown isn't that great a shooter, etc. But I know there's a lot of Illini fans here, and they were pissed about that loss. Mizzou just got blown out by Baylor, the fans are pissed, and are just waiting out the season until Snyder is fired(no one fires a college coach midseason). Ripping the university(death penalty to the program?), and more importantly it's fans right after the loss is pretty inconsiderate. What?! If you read anything I wrote in the Big Ten thread I would agree with anyone who (and I was ripping Brown, Augustine,etc) criticized or made fun of Illinois. It makes little sense to get on a sports message board and not call a spade a spade. Quin Snyder and Mizzou's basketball program is a joke. Just as anyone calling Augustine and Brown leaders is a joke. Using an analogy, I guess it was wrong for some to criticize Hendry, Baker, Patterson, et al for last season's performance, huh? You think a Cardinal fan coming here and trashing the organization at the end of the '04 season would have made friends? No one wants to hear an opposing fan ripping your team after a bad loss, especially non-factual hyperbole like "Mizzou's basketball program should be given the death penalty", and "why fans don't call for Alden's head is another example of why I think Mizzou fans and the Missouri media are some of the worst in college athletics."

They've lacked depth for several years now, I doubt they make it past the round of 16 once they lose the officiating edge they seem to enjoy in the regular season. And UNC ties it up. Part of the reason they lack depth is because they've lost a bunch of players to early entry, but you can't tell me thee's not some junior that can run that offense better that the kid who looks scared to death running it now. When was their last early entry? Deng and Jay Williams(who only skipped his senior year IIRC) are the only that I can think of in the last 4 years. Maybe my concept of time is off, and I'm thinking of all the early entries they had from 1999-2002. Then they really got torn up by early entries. Maggette, Brand, Avery(brilliant choice on his part) all in one year if memory serves.

Many people want Alden fired. Have some tact, you know there's several Mizzou fans on here. If I offended your university, I apologize, but please tell me where I lack tact. I call them as I see them. Like I said, consider the audience. After U of I lost to Penn State, it would be "calling them like I see them" to make fun of the fans rushing the court, pointing out how long it's been since Penn St. beat a ranked team(or a conference team on the road), how Dee Brown isn't that great a shooter, etc. But I know there's a lot of Illini fans here, and they were pissed about that loss. Mizzou just got blown out by Baylor, the fans are pissed, and are just waiting out the season until Snyder is fired(no one fires a college coach midseason). Ripping the university(death penalty to the program?), and more importantly it's fans right after the loss is pretty inconsiderate.