It's not a slam dunk in and of itself, but it makes you wonder if the decline will continue, and where the point is when it will start to seriously impact his performance. He has proven he can pitch and not succeed solely though just blowing people away, but I don't think he's Greg Maddux, either. I'm kind of half in Tim's camp on this, at least with regard to the general notion that giving long term contracts to pitchers is a bad idea, and far more ill-advised than giving them to hitters (I'd probably feel safer giving a soon to be 31 year old Cano a similar deal when he's a FA than I would giving a 26 year old Hernandez this one). You just don't see a lot of longevity + dominance combos happen with pitchers, and it's in no way a slight to or a diminishing of Felix's enormous talent. It's just the nature of the beast. Pitchers are a volatile commodity, regardless of their talent level. But the part of Felix's deal that bothers me is that the Mariners didn't seem to get any kind of discount by signing him now. The contract is probably equivalent to the best deal he could have gotten on the open market. In that way, it is much like the deal Votto got last offseason. I expected the M's to sign Felix long term, but I really thought they'd have gotten a better rate for being proactive. All that said, I'd probably have done this deal if I were the Mariners, though I might have waited another year. Felix is an icon in Seattle, and beyond that he's young (though he's got a lot of miles on his arm for his age) and really, really good. But I would have felt very conflicted about it, and Mariners fans should probably have mixed feelings about it as well. It is a ton of risk.